[Sp5]

(09-04-2014 04:25 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

I don't think there's been a single point throughout this entire drawn out saga where the Yes vote has had a majority.

If Scotland does win independence though, this will have a huge political impact on the rest of the British Isles:

a. There is only Tory seat in Scotland out of 59, without a huge lurch to the right Labour could only ever win an election in a 90's Tony Blair level landslide, they would essentially be in political abyss for at least a generation. Also 1/5 of Lib Dem seats are in the Highlands, losing them could be a terminal blow considering how much their support has collapsed since they joined the current coalition government.

b. If even Scotland has left the U.K it makes even less sense to Republicans for Northern Ireland to remain. It's worth noting Northern Ireland's Protestants descend mostly from Scots and feel more attached to Scotland then anywhere else outside Ulster, Scottish secession would trigger a crisis in their British identity. The best case scenario is the Loyalist paramilitaries start agitating a little, but a similar referendum does not come about. The worst case scenario is that renewed pressure from Republicans leads to a referendum, and everyone knows what will happen in Belfast then...



EDIT: I don't personally care either way whether Northern Ireland is part of the U.K or the Republic of Ireland, but nobody wants to see a repeat of the Troubles and the suffering and loss of life that would ensue, and for the foreseeable future at least that is what will happen if Northern Ireland tries to leave.

Hmmm, all kinds of odd things could happen.

You are right that the Protestants descend from Scots - but the Scots themselves also descend from Irish, who invaded or colonized Scotland in antiquity. That's why Irish Gaelic and Scots Gaelic are closely related languages.

The Ulstermen could pursue a union with an independent Scotland, and even with the Dublin government in some kind of Gaelic confederation.

It would be odd, but if they were all in the EU together or separate, these nationalist projects don't mean as much as they used to beyond cultural identity.