Quote: (02-06-2013 10:52 PM)Mersault Wrote:
Barra? Last time i was there i stayed in Recreio, even further out. To get to zona sul that required travelling through Avenue des Americas and then that beautiful Neymayer road that follows the coast, so say 40 minutes in, non rush hour. Heading back out during rush hour (anywhere between 7-10 am and 4-8pm) involved 90 minutes of travel, sometimes more. So, even by London huge city standards, when you speak of Recreio and speak of suburbs it is a fair description. And even there, in Recreio, and last time i was there was back in 2010, the real estate bubble was huge. Between 20-40% year on year. Yes. It was phenomenal. I recall hanging out with a local property developers niece and her husband at a bar. They were middle class turning new rich, Rio style. The typical white types who run up and down the beach, praise acai, spend weekends in Florianopolis, the odd 5 day break in Teresopolis ('to be closer to nature') and revel in their new found, determined by heaven type of wealth. All they would do talk about was property. They weren't even involved in the game. But everybody in the bar knew them, and respected them, because of their uncle. That much was clear. And when middle class white professionals are spending their spare time at the bar, their leisure time, talking about property prices YOU KNOW that there is a real estate bubble. You also know that you are in the wrong bar and maybe being entertained by the type of crowd you wouldn't want to entertain if you were Woland and living for seven thousand more years. Intolerable people. But that's another story, wouldn't you say? Moving on......
Sure, much of that 20-40% year on year growth was due to the change in rate between dollar and real, but, much of it was also a reflection of Brazil's growing economy and credit expansion. After all, in modern economies, a growing economy and credit expansion are pretty much the same thing. At least in most circumstances. And so until credit implodes, which by its very nature it eventually will, the rises will continue. What particular force will shatter the credit is not something Walter Bagehot and his Lombard Street intellectuals could explain, so forgive me were i to think that nobody here would be able to either. It's a collective phenomena explained rationally only in hindsight. Foresight is a gift not bestowed upon economists, at least not those who argue, with want of reason and empirical evidence never in supply - yes this sentence is correct, despite the seemingly apparent mistake - beyond standard credit expansion theories, ie. that which is obvious, easily understood and almost always the case.
Anyway, the point which i wished to make was that even back in 2010, and prior to that in 2009, i recall the same stories about Rio's property market being in a bubble. Yes. It was in a bubble then. It is in a bubble now. It is the same bubble. It is still expanding. It will burst. Only nobody can predict when (unless they have inside knowledge about Brazil's central bank) . You might just as easily take measures whereby you will benefit from the market collapsing and make a profit as you might take measures calculating on the property prices continuing to rise and also make a profit. Were prices to continue to rise, at current pace or rates similar too, for the next 3 years, 4 years, or even 5 years, nobody would be 'that' surprised. Apart from those who would be surprised. But economists who are surprised are economists who haven't yet understood how tempestuous, enigmatic and altogether baffling economies are. Or, might we just say, they are speakers, repeaters, whatever you might call them, only they are not thinkers. Pff at the arrogance in me.
This was an excellent post, Mersault. Congrats for your insights!
The description of the "emergentes" as the noveaux riches of Barra are called is simply spot on. Plus the input about the economy is super sane.
I believe that whenever the bubble bursts it will sort of put things back in their rightful place. And by that I mean that properties with bad logistics and other undeniable structural flaws which, in my opinion, have seen an irrational increase in value, will tend to be once more considered for what they're really worth. The hype is irrational by definition, it makes no distinction between different things, as if all birds in the sky were eagles and all fish swimming in the sea were redsnappers (sorry for the metaphor here).
The credit expansion is there and people are getting more and more indebted, it's a time-bomb for the future if the economy slows down and a heavy burden for the present. That might partly explain why prices have increased lately a slower pace or even stabilized a bit. But, as you say, to predict exactly how things will evolve is hard because it's indeed an enigmatic process.
You can certainly make money in this context, I've been riding the wave myself, but it's surely not for the faint-hearted.