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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
#4

Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?

I think one of the most understated problems is the demographic shift on two fronts: age and gender ratio. For reasons most seemingly explained by Mao's encouragement of population growth, followed by the one-child rule,Chinas average age is expected to shoot all the way up to 40 by 2025, according to the OECD. This means that social security will largely be a burden that falls on the limited amount children(most likely 1 child per household) relative to their much old parents and grandparents.

Fertiity rates in China are also insanely low with cities like Shangai being as low as .96 births per woman, way below the replacement rate at 2.1. This only exacerbates the ageing population problem.Also, as a game forum, I'm sure I don't need to explain to implications of a 118-110 male to female ratio amongst newborns in 2010, as cited by the Economist. Hell most guys on the forum freak out at a 2-1 male to female ratio at their local bar. Now imagine in China where some Males simply won't have access to women. No dates. No bangs. No marriage. Nothing. Since males have been the preferred gender historically in China for economic reasons its hard to see this trend changing in the near future.
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