Quote: (07-05-2014 09:59 AM)Basil Ransom Wrote:
Yeah AIDS denialism is irrelevant - if you parse the mainstream statistics, it's clear AIDS is mostly a risk for gay men and needle drug junkies. There's some risk for minority, especially black women. But female to male transmission rates are fairly low. AIDS is practically unheard of in straight white men who don't do needle drugs. Other STDs are far more concerning, because there is a real risk of getting them.
A few years ago I did a little research into this area and struggled to get some good evidence. Findings from scientific journals tend to be a little inconsistent on the matter and not necessarily generalisable. The Straight Dope summarises by saying most research trying to put a figure on the liklihood of transmission should be taken with a 'pinch of salt'.
It does attempt a figure, however.
According to a report by researchers Norman Hearst and Stephen Hulley in the Journal of the American Medical Association, the odds of a heterosexual becoming infected with AIDS after one episode of penile-vaginal intercourse with someone in a non-high-risk group without a condom are one in 5 million. With a condom it's even safer — one in 50 million. Just to put this in perspective, the chances of someone in your family getting injured next year in a bubble bath are 1 in 1.3 million (source: The Odds on Virtually Everything, Heron House, 1980). You're in much greater danger of being struck by lightning (1 in 600,000), having your house bombed (1 in 290,000), or being murdered (1 in 11,000).
Link.