[Denzel]

The bounce stopped at 2815. Too bad as it was short of my prediction of 2820+ and I was able to buy only a very small amount of puts and closed my position too early.

My strategy is to buy Jan/Feb SPY puts during the next bounce. I generally buy at three to five different points during the bounce.

If you do not like options, and believe that the market will go further south, you can also take a look at SPSX.

(11-28-2018 10:20 PM)Denzel Wrote:  

I believe that there will be one more bounce that will exceed 2820 but not reach all time highs. In the short term though (by/before next week), a retrace to 2670-2705 is possible/normal.

I also wrote one and a half month ago that US500 will reach 2000 (it will take a year or so to reach there). I still have the same opinion so I will heavily invest on SPY puts as US500 is bouncing to 2820+. Patience is the key here for buying put options. One exception is if the market turns south from here, and breaks 2600 (Which is a very low probability at this point), then again buying puts is a good idea. As the market approaches to its turning point, I will write another post.

If one believes that market will crash, one should buy SPY put options for Feb or March 2019 but I think it is early (unless US500 crashes below 2600).

These are probabilistic assessments and not market advice.

(10-12-2018 01:54 AM)Denzel Wrote:  

Given that both Asian markets and S&P futures are bouncing, I can calculate how low S&P can go down. The number is around 2000 !!! This is probabilistic, of course. If S&P bounces tomorrow to 2790-2865 range but then breaks 2710 later, this scenario will have a much higher probability.

(10-29-2018 12:16 AM)Denzel Wrote:  

Given the positive divergence in the daily charts and my other analysis make me expect a bounce in the short term.

However, in the long term, I am very bearish. The short term bounce should not exceed all time highs of SP500 and DJI. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis.