Samseau's right, polls at this point are pretty meaningless because there will be many more swings in them before the election takes place. This far out from the election, intrade is probably the most reliable indicator you can get of Obama's reelection chances since it reflects the odds that people are willing to bet real money on (it has Obama at a 60% chance of being re-elected as of this post).
That said, if I had money to invest I would have made a killing betting against Ron Paul and for Romney to win the Republican nomination. Intrade's had some pretty clearly unjustifiable prices for both of them considering that Romney's had it in the bag for a while and Paul never had any shot.
That said, if I had money to invest I would have made a killing betting against Ron Paul and for Romney to win the Republican nomination. Intrade's had some pretty clearly unjustifiable prices for both of them considering that Romney's had it in the bag for a while and Paul never had any shot.