Quote: (12-07-2016 10:36 PM)greekgod Wrote:
Quote: (12-07-2016 12:04 PM)H1N1 Wrote:
Quote: (12-07-2016 10:55 AM)greekgod Wrote:
Quote: (12-07-2016 09:56 AM)H1N1 Wrote:
Quote: (12-07-2016 09:37 AM)greekgod Wrote:
Makes next to no logical business sense. Grocers historically achieve 2% profit margins.
I understand Amazon is essentially the world's best logistical company but what could be their expected ROI?
Havent seen a piece of produce in any of their ads either. Telling.
I've also come to the conclusion that automated cars are to control the rationing of gasoline. There is no other incentive otherwise. Don't tell me that Google gives a shit about fatality rates from head on collisions.
Apart from the reduced staff bill, reduced infrastructure bill, the eradication of legacy issues, the redundancy of 3rd party retail analytics systems, and the reduced theft rates - other than that, what have the Romans ever done for us?
And the cost savings will get passed on to whom? The shareholder or the consumer?
And the additional data they gain will be sold to who?
And the barrier of entry for those on SNAP cards and Obama Phones will be paid by who?
I agree that it is reduces labor costs, toss up on infrastructure costs(IoT aint cheap, network to run such a smart store is going to be a headache), 3rd party analytics are good (competition within the BI realm), couldn't comment on legacy issues, and I don't give a shit about theft rates.
So where are we? Reduction in labor costs, further atomization of society, Seattle's gain is Waco's loss, more invasive data dragnets, less time in store, and zero indication if/how those cost savings are passed on to the consumer.
After all, when Bezos bought WaPo, he totally revolutionized the Journalism game, right?
What do the shareholders do with their spare cash, if not invest further into businesses which provide jobs and services which benefit workers/consumers? Who do you think invests in the factories that employ workers, buy capital machinary from other factories which employ workers, etc etc? This is how the general standard of living is increased.
Probably the same people they sell it to now. I've not said it's an unreservedly good thing - I have serious qualms about Amazon (particularly) as a company.
I'm not American so I can't answer the last question. Given that you can buy a smart phone for about £20 these days, I can't see there being that much of a barrier, particularly as market saturisation is likely 10 years away.
Infrastructure will be MUCH cheaper. Running the smart store will be cheap because there is very little wired infrastructure, and the amount of data for the ML to work across will be vast. Improvements will be rapid and seamless. 3rd party analytics will be much less good from a tech point of view. Competition will still exist, it just may be between Toyota and Tesla rather than the conventional retail analytics companies like Footfall. Theft matters - thousands of pounds worth of stuff goes missing each week from a typical Tesco etc. Who absorbs that cost in the long run?
There are reduced labour costs, sure, but I'm not sure that's a good or bad thing by itself. This 'atomization' seems nebulous to me - as you say, less time in store - this frees up more time in principle to see a friend, call them on the phone, or log onto the forum and debate with your web friends.
The savings are passed on to the consumer in improved quality of life and leisure. Your productive time improves dramatically with the introduction of a system such as this. Think, if you are able to compile a shopping list ahead of time - perhaps on the ride over in your driverless car - the app can direct you around the store, so that you spend no time looking for things, and no time queuing to buy them. That alone would knock half an hour or more off my weekly shop.
I'm entirely sympathetic to the concerns about Amazon. As someone who is building a tech business I have very real reservations about the vast monopolistic control these major companies have over the exciting new areas opening up. One can love the technology and the freedom it brings without loving the company that builds it.
Shareholders, take a look at this link and consider if you stand by your statement. Shareholders hate to reinvest. They want their dividends and value for them. http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/holders?ltr=1 Bezos being the biggest shareholder at this point causes me to think hes about power, not investment or helping others. I could be wrong but thats my hunch.
Data; hard to tell. When you begin to build a complete persona type on browsing, info consumption, food, supplement, medicine, and other soft goods, well thats dangerous.
Phone, ok, good point.
Atomization is not nebulous at all. Everything is designed to make you more reliant on a corporation, for a fee of course. Social fabric is ripped up. I happen to be reading David Mamet's book on culture just last night and he makes a strong argument about the danger on convenience. The first industry to adopt to the "2 income" household was food producers. Women had to get that job because it made rearing families and associated costs more affordable. Ie, supposedly less cost or more convenient. But, what happened when women cooked less? Obesity rates sky rocketed. Diabetes is up. Life expectancy is down. This doesnt even scratch the other areas children and families have been hurt by mandating women go into the workforce enmasse. Consider "the pill" which supposedly would help with cramps and safe sex, abortions are still going off @ 500K a year and STDs are thru the roof. Cheap money, we all know how that is going. NINJA mortgages, didn't work out so well.
Have smartphones improved the world? I honestly don't know.
Point is, cost to acquire is good. It makes you think longer and consider if you really need it. Decision fatigue, which supermarkets are the proprietors of, is bad. Sucks. I hate that shit!
I'm not a tech guy so this is speculation but won't that store have to be jam packed with a very extensive wireless network. The best RFIDs cover no more than 50 feet. They're going to have the lowest quality, disposable tags possible.
How do you get RFID chips on produce?
I might be wrong. Thats ok.
The larger point you are mistaking is human nature. Humans love ease. The rest of the world isn't like this forum. They'll use that time for more TV consumption or facebook arguing. My roommate would get groceries delivered. Why? So he could watch another episode of the simpsons (loser!) or diddle on tinder.
Thats the consumer side of human nature. The owner/distributor side, i know nothing about. Clearly, Mr. Bezos isn't a profit guy. Whats his motivation?
What of the local farmer or beverage distributor? How do they negotiate with Amazon?
I'm bearish but I do appreciate your optimism. Amazon is a world class technology company. Yes, the novelty and innovation is intriguing, for sure. Does this outweigh the costs? Not so sure.
One wonders............when does Amazon Air start? "You can fly from Orlando to San Diego while your pilot sits in Seattle sipping a starbucks latte!"
Clearly, I've taken too many contrarian pills today. And I hope this doesn't come off as me attacking you, I just don't trust those goons anymore.
Greekgod, you certainly don't come off as though you are attacking me - I'm enjoying the opportunity for robust debate, and think you've been completely civilised in your approach.
Shareholders love to reinvest. I run a tech business and have been going through the investment raising process. I've been inundated with offers from very rich guys who are shareholders in all sorts of companies. Pretty much their defining characteristic is that they want to know how they are going to make 5-10x their investment within the next 5 years. They have almost no interest in dividends - it is the capital value they want. Of course, I'm not amazon, but one can't take an isolated company, and then isolate a shareholder, and try to legislate for the market based on that one example. Banks offer very little return, if at all, on money at the moment, and rich people are always looking to diversify their portfolio. Small companies like mine are often the beneficiaries of this, and when we are, we are able to create jobs. Who benefits? The rich guys for sure when we make ourselves successful, but also the bookkeeper, the cleaner, the warehouseman, the assembly staff etc that I'm able to employ, as well as the more highly skilled graduate roles I've created. That's not to mention my customers who are able to buy things from me which address their problems for which no previous solution existed. The knock-on benefits of rich people being rich are tremendous. There are bad ones, of course, and isolated poor outcomes inevitably, but so what, these don't reflect the mean.
Data: it could be dangerous - I have my reservations about Amazon knowing too much about me. It could also herald the advent of many wonderful things, and my own view is that one must be cautious, of course, but open minded and receptive to the wonders these innovations will bring.
No, I suspect not - though we won't know for certain until spring. Likely there will be relatively few cameras running some wonderfully clever analytics platform that profiles the movements of your arms etc to pinpoint you relative to a product. They will also have the pings from your smartphone to locate you. Things like fruit and veg may be on weighted scales as well as it's harder to assess from a camera. Video analytics is a very clever field where an extraordinary amount of work has been done in recent years. This sort of thing is actually quite viable now. RFID would be terribly cumbersome and expensive, and I don't think there'd be any appetite for developing this kind of project were it to be dependent on it.
Humans do indeed love leisure, and productive leisure time to my mind is one of life's great goods. Again, I am aware that many people will waste it - but so what? Should these people be shackled to their desks and forced to type in the gloaming simply because they'd otherwise be shagging a 5 behind a dumpster or watching the Simpsons, or if they are discerning, Family Guy?
I've no idea what Bezos' motivations are. Money and power are remarkably similar things, and look to be fun things to have. I hope I have them someday soon, as I suspect they open up even more of life to you.
I suspect the local farmer or distributer negotiates with Amazon in much the same way as they currently negotiate with Sainsbury's or Tesco - with difficulty, in a slow and exasperating process that ultimately pays them enough for the whole exercise to have been worth while. Perhaps there is an opportunity to create a platform aimed at farmers and producers to help them bring their produce to the attention of large retailers more easily. I don't know. If such a thing doesn't exist, and could be made, it might make you a rich man.