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Geo-politics and monetary connections.
#2

Geo-politics and monetary connections.

Interesting idea. There are a lot of regional conflicts that have the potential to go global.

In Europe, you have Russia/EE vs. NATO. I think tensions in Europe itself have eased a bit in recent months because there's a common enemy in Syria (when the Russians don't fly into Turkey), but it can definitely spiral out of control quickly.

As discussed in some other threads, you have the Shias and Sunnis in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting proxy wars with each other in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Low oil prices erode the common bond they share in OPEC and makes escalating conflict more likely.

One scenario I haven't seen much discussion on the forum is the South China Sea. The place is an absolute powder keg with China building artificial islands for its military. The U.S. doesn't recognize China's claims in the region and continues to maintain a major presence there. With trade falling apart in China, the prospects of a Trump presidency, and continued U.S. aircraft flyovers of the artificial islands, it's ripe of escalation.
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