Yeah it's true. One moves on to crypto to avoid the manipulation of the normal markets and guess what, crypto is manipulated too.

Do you think it is a good time to buy, or this is a temporary move up and it will go down again? What do you think the lowest point will be in near term?

Cross-posted from the Bitcoin thread:

Quote: (08-28-2018 02:14 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Check out this phenomenal post on crypto market cycles.

If you're trying to figure out when to buy in, this article is for you.

Quote: (08-12-2018 08:50 PM)randomA Wrote:  

Yeah it's true. One moves on to crypto to avoid the manipulation of the normal markets and guess what, crypto is manipulated too.

Ethereum launched with a command prompt wallet (like MS DOS in the 1990s), failed IPO in Canada (so they redid a 2nd one abroad), the 2nd IPO was dominated by whales and a lot of shady shit behind the scenes (super rich parent, founder who was erased from history like it's the Stalin-era, Goldmach Sachs employees, et cetera) but launched with a huge market cap.

but other projects kind of out did Ethereum. I see quite a few projects that are really just tokens ("IOUs" - meaning no real code or anything delivered so far) that are in the top 10 and top 20 marketcap.

Roger Ver was actually a multimillionaire before Bitcoin (that's why he had $100,000 to YOLO on it).

Vitalik Buterin's father Dmitri made $50+ million a year before he retiring.

So there's a lot of "rich get richer" in cryptocurrency and they're arguably manipulating the hell out of this stuff.

Quote: (07-17-2018 03:46 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tetra...Thesis.pdf

This guy is saying ETH and dAPPs are bound for failure

Actually there were nearly unlimited fiascos before ETH and dAPPs that should had killed Ethereum but didn't.

You can't really kill something that's mostly controlled by a handful of whales and the blockchain community has like a 2 minute memory.

Nobody talking about Fomo3d here?

Last week somebody got away with the jackpot of 2.85 million $ by a clever spam of the ETH network

The article on VICE is surprisingly one of the most accurate

Quote: (08-29-2018 07:34 AM)HD668B Wrote:  

Nobody talking about Fomo3d here?

Last week somebody got away with the jackpot of 2.85 million $ by a clever spam of the ETH network

The article on VICE is surprisingly one of the most accurate

Can you provide a link? And was it a spam or security flaw of the actual ETH network or some third party security issue?

Quote: (08-29-2018 07:34 AM)HD668B Wrote:  

Nobody talking about Fomo3d here?

Last week somebody got away with the jackpot of 2.85 million $ by a clever spam of the ETH network

The article on VICE is surprisingly one of the most accurate

lost 1500$ on fomo short.

Quote: (08-29-2018 11:07 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Can you provide a link? And was it a spam or security flaw of the actual ETH network or some third party security issue?

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/artic...blockchain

Instead of trying to spam the networks by sending multiple transactions, he used smart contracts to transfer money but with gas fees of up to 300$ so the miners were all competing to verify these transactions and ignored others, who included probably Fomo3d key purchases. All what was needed was something like a minute delay since the counter at the end was down to a minute.

I remember having this kind of idea, and also close friends of mine who are crypto millionaires, but we just thought the counter will never go down and somebody would always buy a key. Basically it was too good to be true. Looks like not.

It's almost 'TOO' suspicious how JUSTO knew exactly and precisely how the spam technically worked moments after the timer ended.

Here are a series of tweets that seem to pertain to Ethereum and ICOs more than anything.

https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/woman-st...349885.jpg

I don't understand the exact meaning, perhaps there is an assertion that the ICO projects have taken out enough money to break even which could cause stability of the "bottom being in", but I am not even sure about that kind of a possible fair inference.

Price at the lowest point for over a year. Anyone buying in?

Quote: (10-10-2018 02:39 PM)slowpoke Wrote:  

Price at the lowest point for over a year. Anyone buying in?

In september it was much lower than now.

Quote: (10-10-2018 08:59 PM)randomA Wrote:  

Quote: (10-10-2018 02:39 PM)slowpoke Wrote:  

Price at the lowest point for over a year. Anyone buying in?

In september it was much lower than now.

Ok looks like I missed that. But now it's at $190.

Lower than Sept and the lowest since July last year. Good job I didn't buy in last night!

Quote: (10-11-2018 08:16 PM)slowpoke Wrote:  

Quote: (10-10-2018 08:59 PM)randomA Wrote:  

Quote: (10-10-2018 02:39 PM)slowpoke Wrote:  

Price at the lowest point for over a year. Anyone buying in?

In september it was much lower than now.

Ok looks like I missed that. But now it's at $190.

Lower than Sept and the lowest since July last year. Good job I didn't buy in last night!

In late September (early October) Ethereum was down to $167 on Bitstamp. Sure there could be some exchange variation, yet today, it has so far only gotten down to $185 on Bitstamp.

Surely, I have never been very bullish on Ethereum's long term prospects, so I would not want to suggest whether it is at a bottom or the extent to which it would be a good buy at these prices; nonetheless, I have seen several seemingly reasonable assessment that double digit numbers are not unreasonable for ETH for either a dipping point or a place in which it might stay for a while....

On the other hand, it is also not unreasonable for various coins to become pumped in the opposite direction of expectations, which can apply to pumping them either down or UP.

From my limited tech background, Ethereum has a lot of software attack vectors, and surely it has been understood for a very long time that its actual supply algorithm remains quite uncertain, and has suffered quite extensively, in recent times, from blockchain clutter issues and kinds of incoherence regarding supposed solutions such as proof of stake - and how that might play out, in spite of various scam coins being built upon it, as being a kind of use-case selling point that could also fall apart because of its considerably large attack vector in terms of the way it has been built to be so easy to build upon (and to be copied for that matter).

Costantinopoles is coming in November/December and the reward for the miners will be reduced from 3 to 2 ETH per block. This alone is a bullish sign for Eth, under the market perspective.
On the other end, much of the development and the scaling solutions have been delayed and postponed but eventually they will come. On the medium term I am bullish but on the long term I am not too much sure due to the dapps ecosystem which is not growing.

Quote: (10-12-2018 09:41 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  

Costantinopoles is coming in November/December and the reward for the miners will be reduced from 3 to 2 ETH per block. This alone is a bullish sign for Eth, under the market perspective.
On the other end, much of the development and the scaling solutions have been delayed and postponed but eventually they will come. On the medium term I am bullish but on the long term I am not too much sure due to the dapps ecosystem which is not growing.

Hard to know if Ethereum has its shit together at all, because there seems to be frequent promises that don't really deliver.. but in the long run, they do still seem to have a decent number of networking effects (referring to Trace Mayer outline of such networking effects), yet according to the below article, constantinople might end up delayed, too.

https://ethereumworldnews.com/ethereum-h...oper-says/

Yep I read about the failure on the testnet, it will probably get delayed again unfortunately.

Quote: (08-12-2018 03:23 AM)randomA Wrote:  

ETH is the worst underperformer and most actually used crypto in the market.
really astonishing.

Bitcoin is the most used in the market.

Quote: (10-12-2018 09:41 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  

Costantinopoles is coming in November/December and the reward for the miners will be reduced from 3 to 2 ETH per block. This alone is a bullish sign for Eth, under the market perspective.
On the other end, much of the development and the scaling solutions have been delayed and postponed but eventually they will come. On the medium term I am bullish but on the long term I am not too much sure due to the dapps ecosystem which is not growing.

The dapp ecosystem is coming along really well actually. MakerDao and DigiX are already a few dApps in use, Augur is getting a handle on its UI, BAT has several million people using its browser and LOOM/Enjin/Fuel Games are moving at incredibly fast speeds to launch their blockchain-based games.

Layer 2 scaling solutions are in the work, some already exist. For example LOOM already has scalable dApps running at an L2 level. I'm expecting LOOM especially to be a massive player in the next 2 years as Ethereum gets sharding and casper done. Tradeable cards games on the blockchain should be a really fascinating case study.

I think I might be the only RVF'er touting LOOM's horn, but I really do believe it's going to be absolutely massive and will surprise people. You heard it here first

Quote: (10-13-2018 07:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Hard to know if Ethereum has its shit together at all, because there seems to be frequent promises that don't really deliver.. but in the long run, they do still seem to have a decent number of networking effects (referring to Trace Mayer outline of such networking effects), yet according to the below article, constantinople might end up delayed, too.

https://ethereumworldnews.com/ethereum-h...oper-says/

Old News. And already fixed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/commen...n_testnet/

Quote:Quote:

Bitcoin is the most used in the market.

By what metric? If we're using number of transactions, then no, Ethereum is the most used:

https://bitinfocharts.com/cryptocurrency-charts.html

Quote: (10-11-2018 09:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

From my limited tech background, Ethereum has a lot of software attack vectors, and surely it has been understood for a very long time that its actual supply algorithm remains quite uncertain, and has suffered quite extensively, in recent times, from blockchain clutter issues and kinds of incoherence regarding supposed solutions such as proof of stake - and how that might play out, in spite of various scam coins being built upon it, as being a kind of use-case selling point that could also fall apart because of its considerably large attack vector in terms of the way it has been built to be so easy to build upon (and to be copied for that matter).

The bolded is your first problem. Your second problem is that you've gotten stuck on Bitcoin and you use whatever article you can to argue your point. You don't see it, but everyone else does - you're stuck in a bubble. And unfortunately the only thing that'll get you to reconsider your tiring bitcoin maximalist diatribes is having another coin, most likely Ethereum, overtake BTC in market cap.

On that day, I will post this pic in the Bitcoin thread and keep posting it every week Bitcoin is number 2 or below.

   

In the meantime, enjoy your bubble.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

Quote:Quote:

Bitcoin is the most used in the market.

By what metric? If we're using number of transactions, then no, Ethereum is the most used:

https://bitinfocharts.com/cryptocurrency-charts.html

Fake news - ETH transaction count is inflated due to the millions of low-value dApp transactions.

Avg. Transaction Value:
BTC: $21,000
ETH: $439

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/tra...th.html#3m

Quote:Quote:

And unfortunately the only thing that'll get you to reconsider your tiring bitcoin maximalist diatribes is having another coin, most likely Ethereum, overtake BTC in market cap.

If you had to guess, when do you think ETH could possibly flip BTC?

Quote: (10-14-2018 10:16 AM)redbeard Wrote:  

Fake news - ETH transaction count is inflated due to the millions of low-value dApp transactions.

"low-value"



Unless you can prove the larger ETH transaction count is due to zero-value transactions, the point stands.

Ethereum is used more than Bitcoin. I'm willing to reconsider if you can make a solid argument as to why most ETH transactions should be discounted.

Quote:Quote:

Avg. Transaction Value:
BTC: $21,000
ETH: $439

Do average values mean much unless they represent a normal distribution? Think about the simple case of 1 billionaire jacking up the average net worth of 100 people).

Regardless, assuming it is a normal distribution, what's the argument being made here with average transaction value? People send more $ per transaction through BTC than ETH? Great...and?

As an analogy:

A Ferrari costs more than a Toyota, but there are more Toyota vehicles on the road. So Toyota is more "used".

Toyota Motor Corporation's marketcap incidentally is also much higher than Ferrari N.V.'s.

So I'm not convinced transaction value means anything in regards to crypto marketcap or total user adoption/usage.

Quote:Quote:

If you had to guess, when do you think ETH could possibly flip BTC?

Good question. Honestly, no idea.

1. ETH did come awfully close in June 2016.

Snapshot on CoinMarketCap from June 18th shows:

• BTC marketcap of $43 bn.
• ETH marketcap of $35 bn.
  

2. To balance out JJG - here's some serious negatives about BTC:

I've made the historical argument before that technological first-movers don't end up as market leaders (think MySpace/FB, Archie(first search engine)/Google).

First movers usually fail because they're the first iteration. And first iterations tend to have fatal flaws that are only obvious in hindsight. So second/third/fourth iterations are required to get it "right".

I've seen this in countless technical fields, including my own. First ones to market often die out.

There are exceptions of course, but extremely few, and perhaps BTC will be of the exceptions.

However I doubt it - because to be an exception you need an exceptional leadership. Jeff Bezos of Amazon comes to mind - he was smart enough to realize Amazon had to evolve away from being just an online bookstore and become a general online retailer. Had he not been exceptionally smart, someone else would've come in with the idea of what Amazon is today and either crushed Bezos' books-only online website or made it into a niche website like jetpens.com.

Remind you of a certain first-mover cryptocurrency that should've added smartcontract options but didn't?

BTC actually has a huge problem in that sense - Satoshi Nakamoto, the genius behind Bitcoin, disappeared in 2014. Although not all facts are in, it's 99% certain Satoshi was in fact Hal Finney, who died in 2014.

Why is this an issue? Besides the founding genius is dead aspect, humans abhor a leadership vacuum. You can have a decentralized platform, but you cannot have a decentralized leadership structure. What we saw the past two years with Bitcoin and its contentious hard fork was the result of new people trying to become the leaders of Bitcoin. So we now got two camps: Bitcoin Core developers or Bitmain.

Bitcoin Core is compromised, and will not increase block size since it would negate Lightning, which is going to be their cash cow.

Bitmain on a long term scale will centralize PoW mining - they've been consistently gaining mining share. It'll make the entire decentralized aspect of Bitcoin a joke. Especially since the Chinese government can easily control Chinese companies.

So I'm supposed to believe Bitcoin is going to stay the #1 cryptocurrency? This despite the fact that it's the first iteration, the genius founder is dead, and the people left behind are more concerned about their own greed than advancing and pushing Bitcoin to the next level (the lack of progress in Bitcoin was the original catalyst for Vitalik to do Ethereum in the first place)?

I guess Bitcoin as digital gold is cool...until you realize you can buy actual physical gold as ERC20-tokens through Digix on top of Ethereum. Why buy digital gold when you can make gold digital?

Odds are not in Bitcoin's favor.

The fact is Bitcoin maximalists like JJG don't do themselves any favor by posting any positive news regarding Bitcoin's software development, despite it being extremely measly...I'm still waiting on a legitimate dApp being built on top of Bitcoin. And ignoring all the tremendously positive news that comes from the "alt-coin" space is a dangerous gambit to play.

If I really had to guess when ETH will overtake BTC, I'd put it around 2020-2021. The sheer volume of transactions and usage, as ramped up, through layer 2 scaling solutions in 2019, and through sharding in 2020 could make BTC transaction numbers look like a complete joke in comparison.

But I'm not a maximalist one way or another. Bitcoin doesn't excite me because I find it boring. In contrast, I find Ethereum a lot more fascinating. But unlike maximalists, I do see the value in blockchain/crypto projects that I might not find interesting personally. There is a possibility that BTC remains #1 for a very, very long time. I give that a small probability of happening, but a non-zero probability nevertheless. We'll see what happens.

It is something to ponder - what happens when a majority of people get bored with bitcoin, realizing all you can do is send transactions, and they discover other blockchain projects have much cooler things going on.

That meme though is on stand-by.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

Quote: (10-11-2018 09:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

From my limited tech background, Ethereum has a lot of software attack vectors, and surely it has been understood for a very long time that its actual supply algorithm remains quite uncertain, and has suffered quite extensively, in recent times, from blockchain clutter issues and kinds of incoherence regarding supposed solutions such as proof of stake - and how that might play out, in spite of various scam coins being built upon it, as being a kind of use-case selling point that could also fall apart because of its considerably large attack vector in terms of the way it has been built to be so easy to build upon (and to be copied for that matter).

The bolded is your first problem.

You seem to be wishing that I have a problem, which is your framework, not mine. A guy does not need to know all aspects of any situation (or investment) in order to: 1) post information in this thread, 2) have an opinion or 3) decide for himself whether an investment is good for him (and to state his experiences and perceptions in that direction).

Further, even though I had stated that I have a limited technical background, I am NOT asserting that I don’t know things.. You seem to be reading too much into my statement.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

Your second problem is that you've gotten stuck on Bitcoin and you use whatever article you can to argue your point.

Maybe you are too sensitive? From this post, and your other posts, you seem to have a lot of advocating for ethereum, and even some attempts to suggest that it is better than bitcoin, which seems to be far from the case – but then again depending on your particular reason to get into it, I suppose.

In my last posts, in this thread, I posted Ethereum related information, and provided some of my perspective about what I had posted. You can take my perspective with whatever grain of salt that you like, or complete discard it.

From another angle, it seems that you want to attack my perspective by use of ad hominem.. or to suggest that I am biased? Which seems to be a bit unnecessary, but whatever floats your boat, I suppose.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

You don't see it, but everyone else does - you're stuck in a bubble.

Yes, I see. You are using the royal “we” to summarize a supposed consensus against my perspective? That makes sense.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

And unfortunately the only thing that'll get you to reconsider your tiring bitcoin maximalist diatribes is having another coin, most likely Ethereum, overtake BTC in market cap.

You seem to be engaged in your own wishful thinking here.

First of all, there had been a lot of hope for a flippening in the past, and even though such a thing could happen, such flippening, if it were to occur, does not necessarily mean anything – especially if there are other questions about supply manipulation, which is true with a lot of coins – other than bitcoin.

Surely market cap is one indicator, but we also have a variety of other indicators including various network effects, such as those described by Trace Mayer: http://www.thrivenotes.com/the-7-network...f-bitcoin/

Of course, you can argue that Ethereum or some other coins are gaining in network effects, and would not disclaim that – even though each of us might conclude differently regarding which coin(s) to invest in or the extent to which to diversify or investment into various coins.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

On that day, I will post this pic in the Bitcoin thread and keep posting it every week Bitcoin is number 2 or below.

Who cares? There has been considerable emphasis about bitcoin’s supposed loss of share of total market cap, but that seems almost inevitable based on the thousands of coins that are in the market cap charts.. so we have to take some of that market cap dominance with grains of salt – especially when there is other stuff going on too, and other indicators.

By the way, you seem to be caught up in some arguments regarding either technological superiority of some coins, such as ethereum and perhaps some other projects, but one of the main reasons that I invest into bitcoin (as a hedge against my other investments) is because of the sound money aspects of bitcoin.. which really cannot be proclaimed by any other coin (unless you are merely attempting to deceive yourself based on bad information). If there comes along another coin or asset that is better sound money than bitcoin, then I don’t have any problem investing or diversifying into that coin or asset. At this point, there is no coin or other asset that even seems to be close to BTC in terms of offering an alternative sound money framework… but like I said, I don’t have any problem switching if that sound money aspect develops in some other coin or asset.

Quote: (10-14-2018 09:24 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

In the meantime, enjoy your bubble.

Yes a framework that you created…. Isn't that a strawman? Assert a conclusion that you wish to be the case?

Quote:Quote:

Yes a framework that you created…. Isn't that a strawman? Assert a conclusion that you wish to be the case?

Just FYI, that's not what a straw man is...

straw man is when you take your opponent's argument to the extreme to try to render it absurd - so for example, if you said Ethereum has a minor technical issues, a straw man would be "JJG is saying Ethereum doesn't work at all".

anyway good luck man, I've said what I wanted to

Quote: (10-15-2018 12:57 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

Quote:Quote:

Yes a framework that you created…. Isn't that a strawman? Assert a conclusion that you wish to be the case?

Just FYI, that's not what a straw man is...

straw man is when you take your opponent's argument to the extreme to try to render it absurd - so for example, if you said Ethereum has a minor technical issues, a straw man would be "JJG is saying Ethereum doesn't work at all".

anyway good luck man, I've said what I wanted to

Yes... patronizing as well as insincere....

I already can see that you could give a ratt's ass about "good luck" to anyone investing in bitcoin, because you feel some kind of need to compete with bitcoin including pumping out your information that seems threatened by bitcoin and even fails to acknowledge both that bitcoin brought you to the party, and quite likely the vast majority of alt coins are protected by the soundness of bitcoin (which largely provides a cover for their pumpy asses.. even if there are some legitimacy within some of them)...

We disagree about various aspects of the upsides of ethereum and apparently various other coins (and whether they are just going to get absorbed into bitcoin) and the various downsides of bitcoin, as you outlined.

Surely I don't feel any need, at this time, to argue with you further about what amounts to your various BTC predictions that seem to put a pretty high likelihood to bitcoin's failure and the success of ethereum or some other alt coin (which seem to be more talking points of bitcoin naysayers (who also denigrate by categorizing bitcoin supporting folks as bitcoin maximalists) and alt coin pumpers rather than based on real fundamentals)....

You certainly have a right to your various perspectives as well, and surely the passage of time will find some developments, but I also would not be surprised if any coins are based on sound money principles, that it could take 50 years or more for value to be absorbed into any coins are projects that are mostly approximating sound money principles (which only seems to be bitcoin at the time being).