Quote: (01-30-2018 05:06 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:
I'm making this thread because the topic is stinking up the Trump thread but it's still a bit beyond the Politics and War lounge.
The me preface the rest of this by saying this thread is not an invitation to shit on anyone's race, religion, country or political affiliations. Please keep the thread clean of emotionally driven bullshit.
I'll keep it simple. When it comes to demographics, be it in relation to race, ethnicity, politics or religion I hold the following premise to be foundational.
Since the arrival of the Boeing 747, any national, racial, political or religious demographic that fails to hold self preservation as it's highest priority is doomed to be subsumed or enslaved by other demographics that do.
This is nature's fundamental law. The will to power.
Can an institution be inclusive, charitable AND survivable or will such an organisation be hollowed out by opportunists who have no true allegiance to that institution?
In my opinion this is the most fundamental question in regards to the survivability of the West and the people contained there. It is the most fundamental question in regards to what lessons must be learned if we get a chance to survive this insanity and rebuild.
At what saturation point does racial inclusivity doom a society (give examples)?
At what saturation point does political inclusivity doom a society (give examples)?
At what saturation point does religious inclusivity doom a society (give examples)?
At what saturation point does national inclusivity doom a society (give examples)?
What are examples of highly survivable demographics? What can we attribute this to?
This is a very big topic and I will come back to it, but for starters, here's probably the summary of how Nassim Taleb would answer the question:
Essentially there seem to be two ways in which to conduct a society: either as an Extremistan, or a Mediocristan, which in turn come down to how that society handles its own fragility. In short, what happens when that society suffers harm and what is its response to volatility?
By way of Mediocristans, we can take Switzerland as the main example. It's now one of the longest-running "governments" in Europe, a nation-state that's been around more or less continuously for five hundred years or so, and without a single massive revolution or slaughter (though they've supported or profited from plenty in countries around them.) But I put the word
government in italics because Switzerland has a very decentralised structure, it's very difficult for a large, bureaucratic government to overtake it because every canton has its own voting rights and whilst every so often stupid-ass measures come up for votes, they don't tend to succeed because you have to take down each canton one at a time. There is a lot of volatility at low levels - over the height of the neighbours' walls, over whether Glinda the Prostitute should be working next to the local pub - but there isn't high volatility at the macro levels where systems can be changed in large scope. The checks and balances operate at the lowest feasible level which prevents a small communist infection spreading into the wider Swiss community.
However, it's a Mediocristan, as Taleb puts it, because this sort of small-scale volatility proves to be actually pretty stable in wider terms - like I said, no revolution, no mass bloodlettings in Sweden, and because the cantons don't try to impose society-wide rules on money, banks and other people hide their money there - it also results in mediocrity. The old joke is that the Swiss only ever invented cuckoo clocks, but as Taleb points out, the joke is on them, because they didn't even invent that, either. They don't have massive market crashes, but neither do they really profit from market booms either. The
idea of the EU was
meant to incorporate this principle, but in practice, as we've seen with Poland, the EU has too much power over the pursestrings to be able to resist trying to bring members into line by fiat aikido.
This also links up with Taleb's observation that all it takes is an intolerant minority to overwhelm a tolerant majority in a relatively short space of time. With small cut-off cantons, it's harder for the intolerance to spread, because the partitioned small sectors have to be 'conquered' one at a time, rather than using larger societal levers to change the entire structure at once.
At the time of the Declaration of Independence, the American colonies were Mediocristans, subservient to the British Empire. They were small and independent. And it's here I somewhat part from Taleb for speculation on my part, but I suspect that while the US's founders didn't know anything about antifragility, they had an instinct for this same issue - this same need to keep the Federal government small and relatively powerless. If they were careful readers of Seneca, they might well have gotten the point anyway. But over time the US has slowly been morphing towards the
other end of the spectrum - that of the Extremistan.
In Extremistans, because everything is linked together legally, financially, culturally, changes tend to bring massive benefit or harm in ways that are simply not able to be predicted - period. Size also links into this: the more complexity in a system, the more unseen consequences and the higher incidence (note I say incidence, not chance) of Black Swan events. Indeed the more complex the system the more impossible it is to make meaningful predictions about the future state of affairs.
Extremistans basically allow fragility within the system to be passed upward or onto other parties. Consider the very concept of the corporation: it relieves/liberates/offloads personal responsibility for debts from the individuals running the corporation to the shareholders at best, or at worst, to no one at all. Government becomes social security, making perversely both the government
and the poor fragile to economic shocks since you deprive the poor of the ability to find other options than the welfare check. Where the entire system is large and keyed to public hysteria - i.e. the Federal government in the US and in most other countries in the West - it is invariably fragile to economic shock. Massive harm in economic shock is not something it is built to handle or survive easily. And the problem is that this fragility is shared
across all societal spectrums, because government intervention pervades all societal spectrums and therefore warps all of them when it goes to shit.
Taleb's work is not an easy "Small government good, Big government bad" argument. Even he doesn't like the implications of what he sees in the concept of the triad -- fragility/robustness/antifragility. The concept of fragility appears to pervade the entirety of existence bar perhaps the most direct cause/effect areas such as physics. And Nature, because it's been around longer than anyone else, is the most antifragile system of the lot, with evolution - which gains from harm - one of its primary mechanisms.
Getting back to the subject and the original question:
Can an institution be inclusive, charitable AND survivable or will such an organisation be hollowed out by opportunists who have no true allegiance to that institution?
The answer, according to Taleb, is this: only if that institution is perfectly robust or is antifragile to the sorts of harm we are worried about. And that can only be achieved -- in part -- by the elevation of
the institution as more than something that just serves people, by taking literally JFK's old line "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."
Entrepreneurs, he suggests, should be given a national day, and a speech along the lines of "We know most of you will fail, and for that we give you thanks for trying, even knowing that. We thank you because if you fail you allow other businesses and other people to thrive and succeed, and we all benefit from that."
This is not to argue for communism, by the way: that is the most fragile system of all since it demands centralised control of all aspects of economic if not personal life, which -- as we saw when the USSR collapsed -- is the most fragile system of all. Observe, rather, the current state of Russia in the wake of that breaking of their fragile system: they are survivors, they believe in their God and their country, and they are certainly more antifragile than the West because I doubt any of them have any confidence the government will come riding up to save them if economic shit goes south again.
No, what is required is a large enough cohort of people who live their lives as service to the institution they would see succeed. Not a life of mutual benefit directly to them, as in "my country looks after me and I look after my country" - no, a life of dedication to that country's ideals, of real heroism, not this bullshit "firefighter doing his job on a Tuesday" heroism that became popular after 9/11 because the system likes its heroes unarmed and unthreatening.
This, in my view, will not come without a Soviet-ish collapse of the American system. Since the Baby Boomers went to college the West has been in the grip of narcissism, and narcissism by definition requires the whole world suborned to the self, while Taleb's ethics would require that reversed.
This is a big old tangle of thoughts here, of course, and I might come back when I get more lucid.