After a big win in Nevada, we move on to Super Tuesday.
Here are all the states and where they stand right now:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...h1GOP.html
Georgia:
Trump leads by 12.3. The polls are up to date and this seems accurate as it is similar to SC. Should be a Trump win in a big state.
Texas:
Cruz leads by an average of 4.7, but only by 1 in a poll taken 2/21-2/23 before Nevada. Trump can compete here and push Cruz for the win. Cruz people might be a little deflated right now and Trump has momentum, so he could pull it out, but a strong 2nd place would be just fine here and easy to spin given that it is Cruz's home state. If he wins by any amount then Cruz is finished for good, no chance in hell of coming back.
Massachusetts:
Trump leads by 24. Should be an easy win unless something weird happens.
Minnesota:
Trump leads by 6, but Rubio lead Trump by 5 points in a poll taken in January. Trump since then has a lot of momentum, but this is probably the state where Rubio has the best chance to win. I think it is probably more likely that Trump takes it, but 1 Rubio victory might not be so bad.
Oklahoma:
Trump up by 7.5. Should be a win because Cruz is the closest challenger and has no momentum right now.
Alabama:
Trump up by 21. Polls taken awhile ago though. Should be a win, but it would be nice to have more current data too.
Arkansas:
Cruz up by 4 in latest poll. Taken immediately after Iowa though when Trump had no momentum and Cruz had a lot. Circumstances have changed since then so I think that Trump will compete just fine here. Its probably a good place for Cruz, but this state is a toss-up right now given how old the poll is and how things have changed.
Tennessee:
Trump up in 2 old polls. Hopefully that holds but we probably need more data before more predictions are made.
Colorado:
No recent poll, and I think the process in Colorado is different from other states so who knows what will happen.
Virginia:
Trump up by 6 on Rubio in the most recent poll which ended 10 days ago. Rubio might put up a solid showing here but I think it is Trump's to lose. This would be a good state to solidify.
Alaska:
Latest (but still old) poll shows Trump up by 4, but this was before Palin's endorsement which probably locks Alaska up for him, especially considering he was already leading and has momentum right now too.
Vermont:
Trump up by 15. Should be an easy win. Trump has lots of support in New England.
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There are 12 states total, 11 if you don't count Colorado because their process is different.
Out of the 11, I think Trump will easily win 8. In other words, 8 out of 11 is his floor. The other 3 (Texas, Minnesota, Arkansas) will be close, and I think he will take at least 1, and potentially 2, maybe all 3 of these. His advantage is that the momentum card is still in play since this is an early state of the primaries. Trump is certainly holding this card right now. Also, playing into Trump's favor is that this marks the point where things shift from one state at a time with more emphasis on retail politics and ground game (at least traditionally), to a more national competition. He now does not have to face as strong of a traditional pre-planned-out ground game from other candidates because they are more spread out. This is good for Trump, because he never focused on that anyways and still won 3/4 first states by big margins. Now all the other candidates are playing closer to Trumps level in this area. Trump also gets the word out on a national level better than any other candidate. He can be on TV, social media, send Don Jr. and Eric to different spots, etc. In Super Tuesday that is huge and that, with the other factors I mentioned give Trump a huge advantage. Things are looking Bueno. Trump just needs to do solid in the debate, keep doing his rallies and going on TV at his normal rate, and not have anything catastrophic happen between now and next Tuesday and he will wrap this thing up.