[Brodiaga]

^Yep, still waiting

[Chengiz88]

Chinese GDP lowest in 24yrs...whats happening the chinese not manipulating their data as per normal

[MichaelCorleone]

Russia cut to JUNK for first time in 10 years..It's game on now..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26...hting.html

[Chengiz88]

Just seen this - So the attack on Putin continues

[Akula]

(01-26-2015 04:16 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

Just seen this - So the attack on Putin continues

It's not going to stop I don't think. The powers that be in the west have it in for them and seem to want to do anything they can to put Russia and Putin in a bad light now.

Moody's and Fitch just recently downgraded Russia or put them on negative watch too so they will probably soon follow. This from the (US-based) ratings agencies that traditionally have acted slowly and missed the entire mortgage debt crisis.

[diego69]

I am now in Russian 3rd tier city and the costs are similar to Kiev, maybe just a bit higher. just changed 50$ to 3350 Rubles.
Per the locals many things has higher price now, in some restaurants the English menu is outdated and the new prices are higher on some items.
Alcohol, not imported food, taxis, hotels and most labor related services kept the same ruble price. Imported items higher price. So for a traveler which not focused on French wine and American cigarettes the cost is quite low.

[DaveR]

(01-27-2015 11:28 AM)diego69 Wrote:  

the cost is quite low

But you're comparing a third-tier Russian city to Ukraine's capital...

I can confirm that prices are being adjusted to match the decline very quickly in St. Petersburg. Even local items like vodka, bottled water, fish from Murmansk, dairy, etc. Taxis have started adjusting their prices. Hotels usually set new prices in Spring for the tourist season.

The smaller the city, the longer it will take for prices to filter through the supply chain. In the larger cities, stock is turned over every couple of weeks.

I don't see how a foreigner would get much benefit out of this unless coming to Russia as a backpacker and experiencing 'real Russia' aka the third world. Locals have seen their purchasing power halved. Those who are Euro-denominated will be mostly breaking even. If you're Dollar-denominated, you'll get some advantage, but you would also get it anywhere else.

[BigDave]

(01-26-2015 04:16 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

Just seen this - So the attack on Putin continues

Has nothing to do with politics. This is about fundamentals:

1) Oil price collapse in an economy that has 70% of its exports as oil and gas
2) Longstanding corruption/efficiency issues (economy barely grew in 2013 even before Ukraine started)
3) Sanctions

The downgrade makes sense economically. Even though Russia has low sovereign debt, it has a whole lot of quasi-sovereign debt (e.g. Rosneft has a $10 billion payment due next Friday). The government basically has to back that debt with its reserves, and they are dwindling fast. Total external debt is about $600 billion I think.

The best analysis I've seen says Russia can last through 2016 with low oil prices and US sanctions, after that it's all bets are off.

That said there is a political war against Putin going on, but that's because Russia is fighting a war with Ukraine. Doesn't take a genius to know that there will be consequences (sanctions).

[_Cicero]

Two new notes on Russia...

One thing I have doubts about is really how robust the "russian women are hotter than american women" meme is. There are hot women in Moscow, but I'm actually not convinced it's better than, say, NYC. The other day I was waiting on my girlfriend to come out of the metro during rush hour, and I decided to count how many 7s and above came out and the total number of women. The results? I counted up to 170 women, and during that time there was one clear 8 (maybe), and 4-5 7s by my subjective count. And this was at a posh station in the center. This confirmed what I'd been feeling -- you have to check out lots of girls on the metro to see a hot one. The good thing about Moscow is that there are 7 million slavic women here, which, if my sample was truly random, means that the best guess is that there are still something like 40,000 8s in the city, and perhaps another 200,000 7s. Meanwhile, a city like San Francisco only has 800,000 people, so literally every other woman would have to be smoking hot in order for it to have as much talent as Moscow.

[_Cicero]

^Second item. Question for Dave R, which others might have. I forget to re-register with the Russian government after my last trip out of Moscow. If I leave again, and register when I come back, will there be any problems? Or, what kind of problems can you get into if you don't register?

Thanks in advance.

[DaveR]

(01-28-2015 07:07 AM)_Cicero Wrote:  

Two new notes on Russia...

One thing I have doubts about is really how robust the "russian women are hotter than american women" meme is. There are hot women in Moscow, but I'm actually not convinced it's better than, say, NYC. The other day I was waiting on my girlfriend to come out of the metro during rush hour, and I decided to count how many 7s and above came out and the total number of women. The results? I counted up to 170 women, and during that time there was one clear 8 (maybe), and 4-5 7s by my subjective count. And this was at a posh station in the center. This confirmed what I'd been feeling -- you have to check out lots of girls on the metro to see a hot one. The good thing about Moscow is that there are 7 million slavic women here, which, if my sample was truly random, means that the best guess is that there are still something like 40,000 8s in the city, and perhaps another 200,000 7s. Meanwhile, a city like San Francisco only has 800,000 people, so literally every other woman would have to be smoking hot in order for it to have as much talent as Moscow.

Agreed. I think it's less about ratios and more about 'access'. A lot of guys are initially overwhelmed when they first land in Russia/Ukraine because just about every girl dresses conservatively - high heels, skirts/dresses, makeup, etc.
I find a lot of Italian cities have better ratios of 7-8s, although it lacks in 9s compared to Russia. And the whole country is a sausagefest.

(01-28-2015 07:09 AM)_Cicero Wrote:  

^Second item. Question for Dave R, which others might have. I forget to re-register with the Russian government after my last trip out of Moscow. If I leave again, and register when I come back, will there be any problems? Or, what kind of problems can you get into if you don't register?

Very unlikely to cause any problems if you have fair skin; I've never been asked for any documents other than when driving. It can cause some problems for your employer because the fines for businesses are quite high.
However... Highly-qualified specialists have 90 days to register after each trip, so probably easier to ignore it until next time. Other kinds of visas are supposed to be registered within seven business days.

If you're considering residency in the long term, it's best not to ignore the registration requirement, although missing it a few times won't make a lot of difference over a couple of years, especially if you're a frequent traveller.

The main problem is usually that if one forgets to register it's necessary to leave and come back in order to be able to register at all. Your registration slip may be needed in a few situations: when getting packages released from Customs, opening/operating bank accounts, visa extensions, etc.

[presidentcarter]

(01-28-2015 07:09 AM)_Cicero Wrote:  

^Second item. Question for Dave R, which others might have. I forget to re-register with the Russian government after my last trip out of Moscow. If I leave again, and register when I come back, will there be any problems? Or, what kind of problems can you get into if you don't register?

Thanks in advance.

Would be interested in knowing what happens if you don't re-register also.

My employer just says it's "essential" and that they "risk significant fines" if it's not done in a timely manner.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

If Russia falls before this onslaught and eventually gets pushed into default/bankruptcy/permanent recession, what hope is there for the rest of the world? If that happens, then surely all other countries be better off just rolling with their bellies up and admitting that they must do what US tells them or be destroyed.

p.s.

Chengiz88 Wrote:

Chinese GDP lowest in 24yrs...whats happening the chinese not manipulating their data as per normal

Not to nitpick, but it's GDP growth rate, not absolute GDP. And many countries would kill for a 7.3% growth rate.

[PeruLover12]

...

[diego69]

Dave you are right that some prices are being adjusted but even though maybe they raise the price by 10, 20, even 30% for some items on menu/supermarket, still since half year ago the dollar double its power to the ruble so prices anyhow much lower than before. For sure Ukraine and many other places are cheaper, my point was that if you still wish to come to Russia, 2nd/3rd tier can now be done in very reasonable prices.

[DaveR]

(01-28-2015 01:37 PM)diego69 Wrote:  

Dave you are right that some prices are being adjusted but even though maybe they raise the price by 10, 20, even 30% for some items on menu/supermarket, still since half year ago the dollar double its power to the ruble so prices anyhow much lower than before. For sure Ukraine and many other places are cheaper, my point was that if you still wish to come to Russia, 2nd/3rd tier can now be done in very reasonable prices.

Are you sure that you're comparing like-for-like though? Did you compare the same brand of the same item in the same city? When I compare prices today to what they were a year ago, the adjustment is already priced in except for slow-moving stock and the most basic local items (low-quality bread, potatoes, buckwheat, mushrooms). In addition, the quality of produce has decreased since the EU market was cut off, so in many cases it costs more to find an equivalent item.

Also, if you're using the US Dollar as your base, you have to consider that its value is +20% against the Euro, and around +25% against the Serbian Dinar, Romanian/Bulgarian Lev, Polish Zloty, etc...

So from an economic perspective, I'm not convinced that you're getting a significantly better deal in Russia than you would be in any other Eastern European country, neither in absolute terms nor relative.

[diego69]

Well, let me just provide my costs in $:

1 bedroom nice apartment in the center of the center - 17$ per night.
Taxis- 100-200 ruble short distance up to 3km - 1.5-3$. Bus/ tram - 0.3$
Local draft beer in a bar- 1-1.5$, and they are not bad.
cocktails ~200 ruble (3$)
Middle-Upper class restaurant, 3 course meal - 15-20$
Low class/ fast food, 1 dish + drink - 5-8$
Espresso - 1$
Organized group trip tour out of the city for 6 hours - 15$.

For me it is quite cheap.

[PittFighter]

round trip flights from LA to Moscow are in the 400-500$ range on Aeroflot and Transaero right now in Feb, March, and April

from NYC they are 300

I was looking at these the other day

Is this the usual price range? I have never had a serious interest in going to Russia until now

[PeruLover12]

(01-28-2015 03:10 PM)PittFighter Wrote:  

round trip flights from LA to Moscow are in the 400-500$ range on Aeroflot and Transaero right now in Feb, March, and April

from NYC they are 300

I was looking at these the other day

Is this the usual price range? I have never had a serious interest in going to Russia until now

NYC - Moscow - NYC for $300?! Does that include taxes? I pay more than that from Europe. That's an incredible price.

[AeroDev]

(01-28-2015 03:44 PM)The Ligurian Wrote:  

(01-28-2015 03:10 PM)PittFighter Wrote:  

round trip flights from LA to Moscow are in the 400-500$ range on Aeroflot and Transaero right now in Feb, March, and April

from NYC they are 300

I was looking at these the other day

Is this the usual price range? I have never had a serious interest in going to Russia until now

NYC - Moscow - NYC for $300?! Does that include taxes? I pay more than that from Europe. That's an incredible price.

Round trip tickets from Dallas to Moscow are running around $600 and that includes all taxes and fees. It's insane right now.

[Menace]

Who the hell wants to go to Moscow in Jan/Feb? Screw that.

I wish Russia well but I do hope the ruble is in the crapper this summer as well. I want to hit St P.

[DaveR]

(01-28-2015 03:02 PM)diego69 Wrote:  

Well, let me just provide my costs in $:

1 bedroom nice apartment in the center of the center - 17$ per night.
Taxis- 100-200 ruble short distance up to 3km - 1.5-3$. Bus/ tram - 0.3$
Local draft beer in a bar- 1-1.5$, and they are not bad.
cocktails ~200 ruble (3$)
Middle-Upper class restaurant, 3 course meal - 15-20$
Low class/ fast food, 1 dish + drink - 5-8$
Espresso - 1$
Organized group trip tour out of the city for 6 hours - 15$.

For me it is quite cheap.

So you mean that it's quite cheap in general, but not particularly due to the Rouble crisis?

(01-28-2015 03:44 PM)The Ligurian Wrote:  

NYC - Moscow - NYC for $300?! Does that include taxes? I pay more than that from Europe. That's an incredible price.

That probably doesn't include taxes, but it's cheaper than it was last year (around $400 from memory). Moscow-NA has always been very cheap due to the volume and competition on the Moscow to NYC leg.

(01-28-2015 04:12 PM)Menace Wrote:  

Who the hell wants to go to Moscow in Jan/Feb? Screw that.

Yes, that's why the prices are very 'seasonal.'

[PittFighter]

(01-28-2015 04:12 PM)Menace Wrote:  

Who the hell wants to go to Moscow in Jan/Feb? Screw that.

I wish Russia well but I do hope the ruble is in the crapper this summer as well. I want to hit St P.

prices start to go up pretty quickly in May but April is probably OK

[PittFighter]

(01-28-2015 03:44 PM)The Ligurian Wrote:  

(01-28-2015 03:10 PM)PittFighter Wrote:  

round trip flights from LA to Moscow are in the 400-500$ range on Aeroflot and Transaero right now in Feb, March, and April

from NYC they are 300

I was looking at these the other day

Is this the usual price range? I have never had a serious interest in going to Russia until now

NYC - Moscow - NYC for $300?! Does that include taxes? I pay more than that from Europe. That's an incredible price.

I checked Orbitz that was pre-taxes and fees
still its really Cheap
I am seriously considering late April. A great balance between decent weather and good price.

[diego69]

(01-28-2015 05:24 PM)DaveR Wrote:  

(01-28-2015 03:02 PM)diego69 Wrote:  

Well, let me just provide my costs in $:

1 bedroom nice apartment in the center of the center - 17$ per night.
Taxis- 100-200 ruble short distance up to 3km - 1.5-3$. Bus/ tram - 0.3$
Local draft beer in a bar- 1-1.5$, and they are not bad.
cocktails ~200 ruble (3$)
Middle-Upper class restaurant, 3 course meal - 15-20$
Low class/ fast food, 1 dish + drink - 5-8$
Espresso - 1$
Organized group trip tour out of the city for 6 hours - 15$.

For me it is quite cheap.

So you mean that it's quite cheap in general, but not particularly due to the Rouble crisis?

Most things due to ruble crisis as their ruble price stays the same from half year ago:
1 bedroom nice apartment in the center of the center - 17$ per night. 1100 Ruble.
Local draft beer in a bar- 1-1.5$, and they are not bad.
Low class/ fast food, 1 dish + drink - 5-8$
Espresso - 1$
Organized group trip tour out of the city for 6 hours - 15$.

All of those verified same ruble price as before.
For cocktails and restaurants it depends of what you order, noticed things like Salmon/Tuna/Imported beef prices changed. But Pilmeni, most Pastas and Pizzas have the same price. Local vodka same price, Finlandia or American Whiskey higher price.
As for Taxis, not sure, but the Gasoline price if I understand it correctly is only 35 ruble per liter = 0.5$...

Note- those are not Moscow prices, I am at 3rd tier city!