[Kid Twist]

Has anyone seen this production from earlier this year, May 2018? It has a lot of interesting demographic information, of course linked to the baby boom generation and in particular, the average age, labor participation rate, and the coming retirement of a huge number of people. It also makes comments on what the Fed has been doing, which is very similar (if not identical) to Japan, which already has gone through this demographic.

It is not necessarily doom porn, but rather demographic information that will make one think about "this time being different" as something very possible, at least vis-a-vis the markets. I'd be interested to see what you all think.

https://www.realvision.com/the-coming-re...-raoul-pal

You can find a (.pdf) transcript easily also with a simple search.

[Hypno]

Interesting but I would be cautious drawing conclusion s from Demographics. Howard Dent has made a career of making wrong predictions from incontrovertible demographics.

[chrisblackbeard]

I see the long era of relative domestic piece coming to an end in the west. There are so many things coming to a head in the next 10 years.

• Baby boomers retiring
• National debt
• Social security
• Whites becoming a minority
• Rapidly growing hypergamy and broken sexual marketplace
• Progressive poison, and propaganda every way you turn
  

It will be interesting to see what happens. I play it out in my head and compare it to other times in history, and I see no path that leads to a soft, safe prosperous future for us.

[Kid Twist]

I'll start with a criticism that makes the US different than Japan regarding markets ... one that is fairly obvious and that at least here, Pal doesn't treat: The world is hardly domestic in the sense that many "fundamentals" guys and predictors keep begging the same questions. Peter Schiff does this too. I like how Armstrong points out how he is wrong from not looking at what international or GLOBAL money will be doing. I think this is a mistake by Pal here, and why this cycle can last even several years from now, beyond what he thinks is in the high probability range as well. They forget that the whole world has bond markets and stock markets that are both relative jokes compared to the US, and for that reason why shouldn't tons of money keep coming into the US for equities? What else are you going to buy internationally? The negative interest rate Euro? The manipulated Yuan? The already busted Japanese bond market? Cycles show me that it's far more likely for the US stock market to go to 35k than lose 50% value, first. It is true that when the next crash comes it will be a monster though ... as blackbeard says above, buckle up.

[Kid Twist]

(11-14-2018 07:30 PM)chrisblackbeard Wrote:  

I see the long era of relative domestic piece coming to an end in the west.

This is because the West as we know it has already ended. By hating and turning on its christian heritage, it sealed that deal a few decades ago. The other manifestations are just offshoots or additional symptoms. Truth, honor, integrity, purity --- all gone --- at least from the institutions and respected parts of the society. There is no longer any confidence in any of these.

Let the Brazil-ification begin. Corrupt central government and deep state actors with oligarchical tendencies have been obvious for 20 years already to those paying attention.

My prediction is that everything comes to a zenith in the middle of next decade. At the end of Trump's second term, the sides will already be chosen, lines drawn in the sand, and the polarization complete. If there is a market tank then the demographics of the boomers will be for maintenance of the ponzi scheme handout system. Much of the economy will be resultant stagnation to provide for subsistence for these groups, as opposed to freedom and entrepreneurial activity.

What comes next is anyone's guess, but it will be unlike anything we've seen before.

[RatInTheWoods]

Japan has hardly blown up and gone down the toilet, no matter all the predictions.

Unemployment is down, quality of life has gone up.

Don't believe what the globalists try tell you about "growth of die" - that's just pro-immigrant propaganda to reduce wages and conditions and dismantle organised society.

The superior way for a nation moving forward is low pop, high tech and centre leaning political control.

[DarkTriad]

(11-15-2018 12:02 AM)RatInTheWoods Wrote:  

Japan has hardly blown up and gone down the toilet, no matter all the predictions.

Unemployment is down, quality of life has gone up.

Don't believe what the globalists try tell you about "growth of die" - that's just pro-immigrant propaganda to reduce wages and conditions and dismantle organised society.

The superior way for a nation moving forward is low pop, high tech and centre leaning political control.

Yeah, Heartiste had an interesting piece on it, something like "The Painless Stagnation of Japan."

Most of what was considered "growth" was just opportunities for the elites to enrich themselves. As long as the Japanese continued to live a safe, comfortable middle class existence, what was the problem?

[Tiger Man]

I'm far more worried about the private baby boomer crisis. I moved myself out of the clown world tax nexus a long time ago. So, they can figure out those tax-shielded retirement plans and government pensions on their own.

But, I have (as I'm sure many of you have) several boomer family members who see me, as their high income nephew (usually) as some kind of retirement plan. I'm talking typical boomer types - either never married jet-ski enthusiasts or bitterly divorced with dipshit kids. I lament the day that I will have to explain to them that they are on their own (and then probably stop talking to them). But, let's be honest, much of the social/financial/political crap of "the current year" is the culmination of decades of shit policy coming from one demographic. If they want to run their personal lives just as poorly, well, they aren't too big to fail to me.