[The Beast1]

I've registered two accounts on Ladbrokes and Betfair. Betfair's giving me a 5.7 odd. Ladbrokes was weak last i checked so I'm not bothering.

What sites are giving the best odds right now?

I'd like to stick to legitimate betting sites that are European based. No bitcoin.

[Ethan Hunt]

I regularly check Paddy Power. Currently showing 4/1 down from 5/1 earlier in the week. A few weeks ago it was 5.5/1. You may be better off betting a day before or on election day. Coming from experience from my brexit betting. It starts 3/1 in the morning and moved to 6/1 by lunchtime (when I bought in) before moving to 12/1 just before results came out.

Also you checked in store for Ladbrokes? Sometime they give different odds in store than online (if odds change before the update their site etc).

I don't really go in to high street bookies but do check out Coral and William Hill. They may be doing bets on US election.

[Foolsgo1d]

Skybet has given me £650 for 100 quid when it was 11/2. He is now 4/1 since then and Hillary is 1/6. There are also other bets you can take. These odds were changed in the past 2-3 weeks since I placed my bet so they must know something they're not letting on.

https://www.skybet.com/politics/us-presi...t/14569883

Paddypower gave a lot of hot air over awarding payouts before the election.

The thing about betting is these fuckers can change their policies on a whim.

[Mrredsquare]

A comparison site called Oddschecker updates the best possible prices in the UK.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-p...016/winner

Trump currently 9-2 with Betfair. Which is four and half to one for you non Brits.

[[email protected]]

betfair had Trump at 7.4 a few days ago. I think Brexit closed out around 6.0 right before the vote.

[LeBeau]

Good idea for a thread, anyone have any site recomendations or info for Canada?

[The Beast1]

(10-28-2016 01:14 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

betfair had Trump at 7.4 a few days ago. I think Brexit closed out around 6.0 right before the vote.

I know he's back down to 5 right now and i'm mad i didn't throw down cash on it. I'm nervous it won't go back up. Here's hoping.

[Ethan Hunt]

I'll post a message I sent to another user here on why I felt it best to hold off on betting until election day.

Quote:

I'd recommend holding off because of how the algorithm works (or had been explained to me). A friend of mine used to work for a company that designed the algorithm for most of the UK betting companies, including bet365 and Paddy Power (they offer the same odds).

Odds are calculated based on what people are betting on and the closer to the event the more volatile it will become (which can mean a greater return for the person betting).

At the moment we have the odds of 2/9 for Hillary and 7/2 for Donald which would suggest for every $1 bet on Donald, $15.76 has been bet on Hillary. $1 returning $3.50 and $.22 profit respectively. I do not know how often these odds are updated but I know in a given amount of time that ratio above is correct. It changes entirely based on the ratio in a set time.

As odds are calculated based on other peoples betting I would say it is far more likely that people are going to bet on Hillary than Donald which would swings the odds in a way for a bigger payout for Donald voters. The closer to the event, in this case, when polling closes. The more likely people will bet on Hillary.

This is a very simple answer for you. The algorithm is more complicated as it works on a time bases too.

I can't realistically see anything happening in the future that will damage Hillary in such a way that most people will start betting on Donald. So logically there won't be much change in her odds and he odds are at a point where a large change for the rest of field is a small change for her.

There is a very strong chance that MSM will be polling people in blue states and claiming they are from red states in a bid to sway voters to vote for Hillary or demoralise Trump voters. By sending out a message that she's winning.

There is most definitely risks on both sides though. There may be something damning coming out on Hillary which may make more people bet on Donald which would sway the odds.

Using Brexit as an example. The odds to leave were always better throughout the entire campaign then referendum day came and the odds moved drastically throughout the day. I checked in the 7am and they were 3/1 then by midday were at 6/1 before reaching 12/1 at 10pm (as polls were closing). As soon as Sunderland voted leave by a large margin the odds shifted to something like 1/6. Whilst it is possible that they manually changed the odds it is more likely that suddenly an influx of bets to leave far out weighed bets to remain which is what caused the huge change in odds.

Another reason why I bet at the time I did I noticed that people who reported they voted to leave received far more likes on their Facebook status than people who voted remain. This is a good way to get an idea of how things are going as well. If you find people saying they voted trump are receiving 10 x more likes than people saying they voted Clinton than it is a very good indicator of what the outcome will be. You reduce your betting risk that way too.

I don't really like online gambling as it is much harder to withdraw your money. The amount of checks you need in order to prove who you are etc but I do understand that it may be your best option given your country of residence.

Also when you pay the betting company in advance they will be reinvesting
that money and earning on it while you are not.


Hope the above gives you a clearer picture as to why I would hold off.

TL;DR version.
1. Odds are calculated based on people betting x amount in relation to one another in a set period of time
2. It is not likely that anything being released will damage Hillary much
3. Closer to polling close the more volatile the betting markets become
4. You can gauge social media responses to people claiming to have voted in a certain way
5. It would be expected that MSM will be reporting Hillary winning throughout the day.
6. You giving your money to a company who are going to be investing and earning more on it.

Now I know that there has been a bomb dropped on Hillary. The betting market has responded but receiving a much higher than average bet on Trump which has lowered his odds. This is very likely to have settle down over the weekend before returning back to the value a few days ago.

Often times brash thinking will lose you more.

However you never really know when they right to bet would be. If we were honest with ourselves the best time to have betted was probably June 16 2015 (announcement day).

Even with the bomb dropped today the odds are starting to return to their earlier positions pre bomb.

Bet wise fellas.

[I DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE]

you're a bit too late brah. the best betting odds where when he just announced his candidacy in July last year (like 20,0 odds), when cucks got hysterical after his Iowa "loss" (jumped to 12,0) and last couples of weeks when the fake sex scandals smear campaign was going on (6,0). The odds are in freefall now

also I'm seconding oddschecker, have been using it for quick glance overviews http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-p...016/winner

[Que enspastic]

100-1?

[R_Niko]

(10-28-2016 01:19 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  

Good idea for a thread, anyone have any site recomendations or info for Canada?

BetDSI should work, though it looks like the line has just shifted in Trump's favor.. I can't imagine why :/

[CaptainChardonnay]

(10-28-2016 01:19 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  

Good idea for a thread, anyone have any site recomendations or info for Canada?

bet 365 which just dropped down to -300 (fbi reopening the investigation) for trump after being at -400 for the past week and -450, -500 for a few days

[CaptainChardonnay]

(10-28-2016 02:21 PM)Ethan Hunt Wrote:  

...

However you never really know when they right to bet would be. If we were honest with ourselves the best time to have betted was probably June 16 2015 (announcement day).

Even with the bomb dropped today the odds are starting to return to their earlier positions pre bomb.

Bet wise fellas.

I think announcement day Trump was at -20000. When I first looked into betting on him he was at -12000

[Sooth]

(10-27-2016 06:03 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

I've registered two accounts on Ladbrokes and Betfair. Betfair's giving me a 5.7 odd. Ladbrokes was weak last i checked so I'm not bothering.

What sites are giving the best odds right now?

I'd like to stick to legitimate betting sites that are European based. No bitcoin.

I bet 2 weeks ago on Ladbrokes when the odds were 5.5 for Trump. Today they're down to 3.4.

Ladbrokes had a special bet open at 21 return - Trump to win popular vote by over 10%. I don't know how feasible that is, but I chucked a few hundred on it in case of a landslide.

They totally took that down though. I said in the Hillary thread that the bookies are watching Alex Jones and Paul Joseph Watson now.

[[email protected]]

with the FBI looking into Clinton again the odds are down to 4.3 from 6.0 on betfair.com within a span of a day. I'm sure as polls tighten with reality it's going down to 3.0 soon enough.

Also... does anyone know whether I have to wait to January to cash in on my Trump-to-win bet? Or can I get paid out the night of the election?

[CaptainChardonnay]

Bet365 says November 8th so I'm guessing November 9th you will be able to cash out. If Hillary wins Nov 8, but they do a recount after November 9th and Trump wins, I also assume you lose.

[[email protected]]

^
You seem to be right. Betfair says in the fine print that the projected winner on election night is the winner and it doesn't take into account faithless electors and i'm assuming any recounts.

Also this FBI thing might be bigger than I initially thought..



Hillary, Obama/Biden have cancelled all appearances.

It's because Comey found hard evidence of the Clinton's engaging in sex trafficking of children, I guarantee it. Consider the Epestein connection.
Obama and Biden cut a deal with Comey to throw Hilary under the bus, and Lynch may have to resign too, to save face. Biden said this morning he would never accept a job in a Clinton presidency. Obama seemed catatonic in FL today, going through the motions, did you hear him on the phone being interviewed? He sounded stale and defeated. Rumor is, he cancelled all future events with Clinton. He knows whats coming. Comey wouldn't risk a Clinton presidency with her wrath bearing down on him without a KO punch.

Trump knows this too and has been likely tipped off by fbi insiders, and was bragging that the election should be cancelled already and him named president in his last rally today, just to gloat and piss the MSM off. Because in a few days nobody's gonna give a fuck what he said or how he said it, when they find out the ugly Truth about the Clintons.

[Foolsgo1d]

My worry is if Hillary gets whopped by this investigation (50/50), it will void all bets!

[Merenguero]

(10-28-2016 04:27 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 01:19 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  

Good idea for a thread, anyone have any site recomendations or info for Canada?

bet 365 which just dropped down to -300 (fbi reopening the investigation) for trump after being at -400 for the past week and -450, -500 for a few days

I don't know shit about politics, but I think you might be putting minus signs where plus signs should be. Right now, Hilly Clinton is about -300 and Trump is about +210 and I am pretty sure Trump has never been -300, -400, -450, or -500.

[Peregrine]

(11-04-2016 10:52 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 04:27 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 01:19 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  

Good idea for a thread, anyone have any site recomendations or info for Canada?

bet 365 which just dropped down to -300 (fbi reopening the investigation) for trump after being at -400 for the past week and -450, -500 for a few days

I don't know shit about politics, but I think you might be putting minus signs where plus signs should be. Right now, Hilly Clinton is about -300 and Trump is about +210 and I am pretty sure Trump has never been -300, -400, -450, or -500.

Yep, he meant to use + signs.

Also, a 269 tie is a bookie's wet dream. They win all bets in that scenario.

[The Beast1]

I went in at 3.4 before the spirit cooking news came out. It's only going to get worse from here.

[roberto]

I've put the max they would allow on landslide of over 50% to Trump. Sadly that was £48

I also put a bit on Hillary to crash with 40-43.99% of the vote at 15/1, and split the rest between Hillary to take 44-47.99% and Donald Trump to win at similar mediocre odds.

Trumps gonna win, and win big. Hillary is gonna loose, but it's a question of how much vote rigging can limit that loss.

Let the chips fall where they may. When Trump wins I'm gonna need the money for the MONSTER partying that will ensue.

[roberto]

Trump back up to 4.3 on Paddy Power.

[Mrredsquare]

Since the James Comey news Trump has drifted to 5-1 on Betfair.

[WhatTheFuck]

For the US folks, Bovada currently at +350 for trump. Lowest I saw it was +180 a few days ago, but I have a feeling now over the next few days with the media about to dog pile on the Comey news, the value for a Trump bet will keep creeping higher. I'm tempted to bet right now but I think if I hold out it might get up to +500 again, which were the same odds I got when I placed my first bet back in February.

Also, my other dilemma... I have received payouts of around $1000 from them before, but I'm slightly concerned about putting more money down as I don't know how much I really trust them to payout larger amounts. Bovada has always felt kind of shady to me, and I am pretty sure their poker rooms at least are infested with bots. Has anyone here ever cashed out anything significant with them, i.e., 5000+?