[RBerkley]

(12-04-2016 01:52 AM)jj90 Wrote:  

They are not upgrading the refinery in Burnaby. Buddy of mine is demo'ing the silos there. Quick google search shows that the refinery is up for sale.

We actually have a decent amount of Texans here or passing thru. Why? Beats the fuck outta me. I can't see why anyone Stateside would go here over Seattle, except for the 30% discount. Ironically, I think Houston is the shit. I had a blast there and the city has a real economy.

The problem with Vancouver is that it tries to be an international cosmopolitan city without having the requisite tax base in order to do so. By virtue of being the transit point into Canada from the West Coast, it attracts a lot of money. But that money isn't terribly interested in developing large companies and building up the local population as a tax base, they keep it internally among the right social/ethnic circles. Meanwhile, the local populace and government who have been entranced with the international cosmopolitan standards and the environmental first approach to things kills the real projects with potential to uplift Vancouver into having a real economy.

So you have a tale of 2 cities: Those that have in Vancouver and those that have not. Those in occupations doing well such as tech, RE, trades can afford to take advantage of living in the city. Those working the stereotypically Starbucks barista jobs, not so much. Come to think about it, the biggest economy in Vancouver is logistics. The moving of capital, human and physical. Most of the out of towners that come don't stick around for the long term.

The biggest obstacle to Vancouver is....the local populace. Who else would vote and puts people in government to enact such policies? 1 thing I notice about people from the States is the undying drive to get better in all aspects, primarily financially. The locals here are more then content to make 30-40K a year, sip their latte at English Beach, and bitch about housing prices rather then uplift themselves. Anyone dissenting is slapped with the label of Un-Canadian.

That mentality is dangerous. It cries mediocrity is superiority.

That's one observation I noticed living in the USA for a while.

In 2014, When I was working at a university in Toronto, the female Manager (white woman) didn't appreciate that I innovated a way to increase student success on campus, because she replied "It's more work" when I proposed the idea, which wouldn't even cost a penny extra in operating cost (other than OT Pay).

Student engagement on that campus was shit, but until I came up with an idea, the results from that idea came up significant. There needed more proposal from the department to increase the Budget. The department would have grown and expanded, more funding from donors, better campus life.

On the contrary, the Male Manager who hired me was excited at my proposal because he cares for student engagement because he gets grants & shit. He wanted me to work Full-Time on the team of the department, probably a Promotion. Last time I heard he earned a non-profit grant to his start-up which is endorsed by the university.

Oddly enough, an anonymous bogus "sexual harassment" complaint come around, tarnished my name, and I became an outlaw like Roosh. The Female Manager took that opportunity to use that anonymous bogus complaint against me, without me even confirming or denying the accusation. I didn't know that much about Red Pill, Roosh or MGTOW at that time other than men rights on campus.

I'm not sure why the "Canadian" mentality of Canada doesn't tolerate a hard work ethic? Is it rooted in colonialism to protect the European elite in 1775 before America kicked the elites asses out of America in 1776.

Canada coins got a picture of a Queen at the back of it, but American coins got the word "LIBERTY", plus the States who get their own exclusive coins got slogans like "Live Free or Die" like the New Hampshire 25-cent, or "Freedom" inscribed on the coin of a State I can't recall as yet.

You're right about that mediocrity part though!

[Jack Of All Trades]

Canada is going through a shit time, then again we as canadians skipped the housing crash south of the border. It's now catching up with us as we're losing steam as the americans are gaining traction in their economy. Maybe a brain drain will occur like in the 1990s? who knows? This time canada isn't as cheap of a place for manufacturing when there's so many other places with cheaper labor and much improved infrastructure. I've been seeing a lot of industrial land manufacturing coming from south korea or euro countries. With the CETA recently signed, it'll be interesting to see what happens as a lot of the food manufacturers get hit with a lot of competitive from more efficient european countries.

Upside is that with the low canadian dollar, when a commodity boom comes again it'll come hard and fast because developing resources is discounted 25-30% right off the bat so we're pretty competitve in that regard and have a stable and proper legal system unless the environmentalists fuck it up.

[RBerkley]

Aye…Good old Canadian economy thread.

Latest so far:

-Home Capital lost at least 70% of its Share price value over accusations of fraudulent fake mortgages which caused a bank run.

-Trump is unhappy with Canada lumber and Dairy industries, so Christie Clark and Trudeau threaten Trump with trade war (watch out for a very steep devaluation of the Loonie if Trump gets angry).

-Crude oil is facing a worldwide glut despite OPEC cut, that American, China and European oil companies are discovering billions upon billions of barrels of new oil fields across the globe. The USA officially exports at least 11,900,000 barrels of oil per day, forecasting to increase to at least 12,500,000 Barrels per day by 2019.

-Today, Canadian dollar is at 72.9 cents, while New Zealand dollar is at 69 cents. This illustrates that Canadian dollar is performing very poorly because of the risks of real estate collapse, low oil prices and threat of Trade war.

-FED anticipates to increase interest rates to 1.25% in June 2017, while BoC may leave it unchanged at 0.50%, or that white knight Mr. Stephen S Poloz will cut interest rates to prevent a real estate collapse. This will cause the Loonie to drop in any case.

I am not providing Investment advice, but short-term forecast is that for the rest of 2017, expect the Canadian Loonie to range US$0.69 to 0.74 at current trend, but if real estate market crashes in Toronto or Vancouver, that will range US$ 0.60 to 0.69.

[sonoran_]

Having Trudope as Dear Leader and some stupid provincial leaders such as Notley ( Alberta) , Wynn (Ontario) do not help the case at all.

Honestly, Canadians are stupid as f**ck.

[rudebwoy]

^^The sky is falling hysteria has been going on for a long time.

The housing market won't drop anytime soon in Toronto, people are buying up real estate in satellite towns like Hamilton and Oshawa like there is a gold rush. A small box of a house in Hamilton had 80 offers on it and sold for $150K over list price, this is standard procedure in the GTA.

Vancouver has been hyped hard, talking to a forum member who actually lives there said it is all media propaganda.

Trump has bigger fish to fry to worry about Lumber and Dairy.

[Nascimento]

^ I don't know. It might not burst like some people suggest, but the prices can't possibly keep rising at the current rates. Something serious will happen soon. A decline at some point will be inevitable.

If I recall correctly, the average household income in the GTA is close to $80k. How can so many people keep buying houses at an average cost of $800k? Simply not doable--too many are utterly overextending.

For perspective, the average household income in Ottawa nears $100k with houses costing around $350k.

It's a great time to sell, no doubt. But buying at this point in time is a serious, serious risk from what I currently understand.

[rudebwoy]

There will be a small correction, a drop of maybe 10-20%.

Agreed, average people in the GTA cannot afford these crazy house prices.

Foreign investment is huge, I hear rumours it has tapered off a bit.
I remember 20 years ago, when the Canadian government were opening their legs for the people from Hong Kong. Now they are doing the same for the Chinese, who are buying houses/condos like candy.

[RBerkley]

Tomorrow is a big day for anyone who is interested in Canadian Real Estate, Currency Trading or Investing in Canada.

Tomorrow is when the Bank of Canada decides whether or not to increase interest rates. For newbies, Bank of Canada interest rates dictate the rest of rates for mortgages and savings, so an increase in BoC interest rates increase the cost of mortgages and other credit instruments, while a decrease in interest rates lower mortgages, but devalue the currency.

Trend since 2009 in Canada was low interest rates, so a hike this month will prove a symbolic psychological effect on cheap mortgages coming to an end.

On the contrary, savers and those who travel frequently abroad, in particular, the USA, will benefit from an increase in interest rates, because the Loonie will increase in value.

Risk of housing crash in Canada with an increase of interest rates? Not likely, but millions of Canadians will have to accommodate for extra interest service charges, which eventually reduce consumer spending, causing a deflationary effect. However, this will take at least over a year for an interest rate hike to take full effect.

My Loonie forecast for you currency speculators out there (and please don't take it as investment advice) is that prior to July 12, 2017 the C$ is currently at 77.4 US cents.

Forecast:
Rate hike w/ Hawkish view: C$ range 78.1 cents to 80.4 cents MAX.
Rate hike w/Bearish view: C$ range 78.0 cents to 78.5 cents MAX.
No rate hike: C$ range 75.0 cents to 75.99 cents MAX.

Tomorrow is a big day for Markets in Canada...Popcorn time!

[Jack Of All Trades]

Well the rates went up and we'll see what happens this winter to the housing market. Maybe it'll drop who knows?

[RBerkley]

@ Jack of All Trades:

Because of Hitlery Clinton's smear campaign against Donald Trump's son, along with Janet Yellen's remarks at the latest FED meeting, the US dollar index is collapsing....Right now it's at 94.90 when it was only at 102.3 a few months ago.

This causes oil prices & commodities to increase relative to the declining US dollar, so Alberta, Saskatachewan & BC will not be hit as hard because more income from commodities, but Ontario which thrives on a low dollar will be affected.

Mortgage prime rates increased to at 2.95%, so that isn't going to cause a full-blown housing collapse, but it will affect consumer spending locally as more Canadian households will have to apportion more of their income to debt service.

Currently, news reports stated that housing sales in the suburbs of Toronto have declined while listings increased, which is "good for them" lol, because one is very unwise to pay over $1.5 million Canadian dollars for a house made with cardboard wood and hot glue, when houses made of better material in the Southern states of USA, of similar size, go for at least $280,000 Canadian dollars equivalent.

For you American lurkers, cities like Markham, Brampton, Vaughan, Thornhill, etc are sub-urban small towns which are comparable to small towns which are at least 50 miles away from major cities like Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, etc.

I know many who wish for a housing bubble collapse in Canada, because they claim that it will bring reality to "smug" Canadians who believe that they are rich because of a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit).

Portland & Boston smugness combined can't compare with Canadian smugness who live in cardboard wood fixed with hot glue houses in the Greater Toronto Area, or glass condos in downtown Toronto & Vancouver.

[TooFineAPoint]

(12-04-2016 01:52 AM)jj90 Wrote:  

mediocrity is superiority.

The modern Canadian battle call, yes.

[HighSpeed_LowDrag]

For anyone looking for a really good blog on the topic of the Canadian real estate market (and Canadian economy in general), Greater Fool by former MP and investment advisor Garth Turner is the best one you'll probably find. He's been warning about the looming bubble in Canadian real estate, and how it has now become, proportionate to the overall economy, the largest housing bubble in modern history. And we're only just now starting to see the first signs of it popping.

He posted this mid-year financial update from a Boston-based hedge fund talking about how the coming months represent a "perfect storm" for Canadian real-estate:



The update doesn't even mention what could be the biggest factor of them all - the looming NAFTA renegotiations with the Trump administration, and the uncertainty that could result from that whole mess. Let alone the fallout from if Trump blows up the entire agreement.

Well worth reading for anyone interested in this thread.

[sonoran_]

Greater fool is a diamond!! Thanks for the recommendation, Ive been reading it for the past 2 hours lol.

Its got me thinking, when interest rates were high back in the day, which individuals made their money in that environment ( in real estate). Im too young to know life with high interest rates( 23) but I want to find these individuals and study them so as to learn from their history.

[Laner]

I follow Garth, and have for over 10 years. He is a smart man, and has given plenty of good advice.

However, if I would have listened to him regarding real estate, I would have been out almost $700,000. I remember when he started selling generators and bunkers for prepping back in 2008. A bit extreme.

But contrarian advice is always good, just remember he has been calling for this coming doom for longer than I have been reading him (2006).

[RBerkley]

Garth Turner is one of those surfboarding, rock star lefties who is politically correct. He refuses to acknowledge that foreign "investors" are playing a role in inflating the Canadian real estate market.

He is right that Canadians are to blame to apply for multi-million dollar mortgages on a softwood cardboard with glue townhouse in Toronto or Vancouver, but artificial scarcity caused by mass-immigration and very low standards against foreign money laundering is to blame for "prices will go higher" FOMO effect.

You don't see foreign "investors" buying up property near low-income areas in the USA at risk of being mobbed or robbed. Because Canada, particularly Anglo-Canada, particularly Toronto & Vancouver are fragmented societies with Men vs Women, SJWs, tranny rights, etc, it is way easier for "foreign investors" to overbid on houses in traditionally middle class communities without the backlash that one will get in the USA such as slashed tires, civil unrest, home invasions, armed robberies, etc.

Typically, it is safer for a foreign "investor" to bring their "hard earned cash" into Canada compared to the USA.

That's why "foreign investors" prefer to cash on over $1,800,000+ Canadian dollars on a townhouse in the middle of York Region (north of Toronto) than to purchase detached beach property in California for some strange reason.

The bad news (or good news depends if you're a wealthy Boomer or struggling Gen Y or Z) is that Canadian (as in the entire Canada) real estate prices fell by 5%, sales down 30%.

Toronto real estate is falling that Rosedale/Forest Hill prices are declining by almost 10%. One mansion in Forest Hill was listed as $12,800,000 a few months ago, now price reduced to 12 000 000$ (800 000$ discount).

Few disenfranchise Gen Y and Z'ers are actually rejoicing over the decline of what they call real estate for foreign money laundromats & snobby Yuppies.

800 000$ discount on a mansion in one of the richest areas of Canada. Laugh out loudly.

[RBerkley]

For you currency speculators and American travellers out there,

For you currency speculators & Canadians who want to travel to the USA, now is a great summer to travel because the C$ is at 79 cents U.S....I'm not sure what NAFTA in August, or oversupply of oil will do to the Loonie, as the Forex is concerned more with Trump and FED than commodity prices & how it impacts the Canadian dollar.

Another good news is that Trump will allow Canadians to purchase anything online duty free up to 800US$; way better improvement than the current 20US$ that Canadians are exempt before having to pay at least 24-30% duties for purchases online.

I currently don't know the future, but real estate in Canada will collapse once the economy starts to shrink because of higher interest rates, but the good news is that interest rate increases tend to take a year to take into effect.

[RBerkley]

0.25% increase in mortgage of 500 000$= 80$to $100 increase on monthly interest charges for Mortgage.

Extra 100$ a month doesn't sound a lot, but remember other creditor instruments like HELOCS, line of credit, student loans, car loans & credit cards which are common in Canada.

Remember that cost of living in Canada increases because borrowing for capital investment becomes costlier, but wages are stagnant in Canada, because Canada imports over 300 000 immigrants a year to drive down wages to fight for min. wage like wild animals in the desert.

[scotian]

Damn RBerkley got banned, anyone know why?

[Nascimento]

Hmm. His financial posts were very insightful but otherwise he was often inflammatory, not sure if that had anything to do with it.

[sonoran_]

Petronas and its partners have cancelled the $36-billion Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas megaproject they had planned to build in British Columbia.

People are saying its due to the low Natural Gas prices and market conditions but the newly elected NDP government might have some blame as well. Who wants to deal with NDP bullshit anyways.

There goes 36 billion in investments, and hundreds of potential jobs.

[scotian]

(07-25-2017 02:18 PM)sonoran_ Wrote:  

Petronas and its partners have cancelled the $36-billion Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas megaproject they had planned to build in British Columbia.

People are saying its due to the low Natural Gas prices and market conditions but the newly elected NDP government might have some blame as well. Who wants to deal with NDP bullshit anyways.

There goes 36 billion in investments, and hundreds of potential jobs.

Fucking brutal man, I'm seriously shaking my head at this one because I was planning on applying to work on these projects when they started, I've worked at a few different sites in BC and its a great place to be. Congratulations to the fucking hippy enviro-whackos and the Natives (both who are in the pockets of foreign interests), you won but don't be surprised if the government one day can't cough up the cash for your precious social/environmental programs, rez money or other fucking boondoggle government waste like the missing indigenous women inquiry.

[Emancipator]

(07-25-2017 02:18 PM)sonoran_ Wrote:  

Petronas and its partners have cancelled the $36-billion Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas megaproject they had planned to build in British Columbia.

People are saying its due to the low Natural Gas prices and market conditions but the newly elected NDP government might have some blame as well. Who wants to deal with NDP bullshit anyways.

There goes 36 billion in investments, and hundreds of potential jobs.

While the NDP – and Petronas – have played down the impact of politics on the company's decision, one analyst said politics is often relevant to investment decisions on such projects.

In an e-mail response, Divya Reddy of the Eurasia Group consultancy – a political-risk firm in New York – said politics do factor into these kinds of decisions, especially with large, capital-intensive LNG projects under current weak market conditions.

"It basically means that projects have to be ultracompetitive for companies to sanction them, and politics can play a significant role in either making or breaking that competitiveness. And the recent election in B.C. introduced still more political risk given more tepid reception for LNG by the NDP-led government compared with the Liberals."

The financial press in KL will also disclose the real reasons behind today's PNW LNG cancellation over the coming weeks

The BC NDP has opposed it from the outset and the 3 new BC NDP ministers of Energy, Mines, & Environment respectively are all well known hard-core enviros as well as SJWs - no background/obvious understanding of finance/business/economic or resource development.

[Emancipator]

(07-25-2017 06:46 PM)scotian Wrote:  

Fucking brutal man, I'm seriously shaking my head at this one because I was planning on applying to work on these projects when they started, I've worked at a few different sites in BC and its a great place to be. Congratulations to the fucking hippy enviro-whackos and the Natives (both who are in the pockets of foreign interests), you won but don't be surprised if the government one day can't cough up the cash for your precious social/environmental programs, rez money or other fucking boondoggle government waste like the missing indigenous women inquiry.

Not all natives are anti-resource developments, just a vocal few in the pockets of US based Tides Groups, and ones that are not seeing any benefit from development.

For example the Tsimshian first nations supported Petronas' LNG site. And as I mentioned in the CDN Politics thread Ellis Ross(Kitimat FN huge supporter of LNG) is a "star" member of the BC Libs.