While the climate may be changing, I have little doubt that humans have little to do with it. For a few reasons:
1) Measurement: Most of the civilized world that's been collecting measurements for over a hundred years is in the northern hemisphere, far away from the equator. While the accuracy of their measurements from way back when with questionable mercury thermometers is dubious, at best, we don't even have
those measurements from a lot of third-world places over the past century, let alone "250 years in the past." Where are most of the third world shitholes located? Near the equator, where it's hot. Hell, a lot of those places
still don't have much contact with the outside world at all--we're supposed to believe that 30 years ago, they were calling in temperature readings every day from Rwanda?
As more accurate data comes in from those places, there's a high likelihood that it'll cause the average temperature to skew upward. Especially if you have scientists fudging data to make those estimates cooler on the back end. Hence the "warming" trend we're seeing now.
Of course, I'm sure some of these scientists have a "proven" method to test soil, trees, rocks, etc. to determine how hot it was back in the day. If geology is anything like archaeology (which I studied fairly extensively in college), testing rock strata consists of a lot of guesswork based on a lot of contextual information. If they're testing trees for excess growth in rings because of CO2, that seems like a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? I have yet to see a methodology that convincingly provides "accurate" measurements over a time span that we can't possibly know.
2) The Sun. I've long thought that the sun has
far more of an impact on temperatures than anything that humans (or even the earth, through volcanic eruptions) can. It just makes sense; if you use the "goldilocks zone" hypothesis, for where a habitable planet can be in a solar system, then a 10% increase or decrease in solar output would have
far greater ramifications for a planet anywhere in that "goldilocks zone" than whatever's happening on that planet. As an astute commenter mentioned, we have a 60 degree temperature shift
based almost entirely off of which way the Earth's axis is tilted EVERY YEAR! Not to mention that the Earth wobbles on its axis a bit from year-to-year--do these studies (and pretty graphs) take that into account?
3) The incentives for global warming researchers. There are
plenty of reasons for a "global warming scientist" to graze with the herd. Even apart from funding, modern science is set up in a way to confirm and expand what's already been discovered, especially when that subject matter confirms the liberal agenda at work in the media. Professional accolades, not being shunned, being "on the right side of history" (even if this is an occasion where that's not the case) are huge drivers of these largely introverted scientists's lives. They've been in school for a long time, and
crave validation, from their peers, their families, strangers, whomever. It's a lot easier to be the 996th paper fudging numbers to "prove" global warming to deafening applause than to be one of the lonely remainder left to defend their data above the deafening din of SJWs and the like.
4) Even IF humans have something to do with global warming, it's
far more likely that advances in technology are going to save us from whatever temperature fluctuations exist than by expecting half the world's population to simply give up the comforts to which they've become accustomed. I assume most guys around here have read Bjorn Lomborg's
Cool It, but if not, I can't recommend it highly enough. He does a basic cost-benefit analysis, and determines that any kind of broad-based emission reduction legislation, or cap-and-trade, will ultimately have a minimal impact on any greenhouse effect that may exist. We need to pump money into technology to make the advances needed to correct any temperature crises that ultimately arise down the road.
Now, is this to say that I support pollution? Hardly. Pollution sucks--there were 28% more asthma cases in 2011 than in 2001. That's 25 million people in 2011. Unfortunately, it seems like black inner city kids were most at risk.
Source:
http://www.healthline.com/health-news/ch...ise-110813
Unfortunately, diesel fumes seem to be one of the primary culprits of the rise in asthma cases across the country (& the world):
http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/bl...fumes.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/articl...blems.html
That brings me to my biggest point: we're all against pollution, right? I mean, I don't
like the fact that my car belches out CO2 and other crap. I don't think it's a critical problem, but "them's the breaks."
Obviously, a lot of people agree with me. Otherwise, SUVs, pickups, and other high-emissions cars would not be sold. There would be an army of Priuses on the nation's highways.
But getting back to the important point, in a way that any game-user can appreciate:
Why not reframe "global warming" as a "public health" issue?
I mean, I think the 8% or so of the population that suffers from asthma has enough family, friends, and overall reach to make this an issue. Not to mention the communities affected by coal ash and the like. Let's make reducing emissions something that everyone who cares for another human life can get behind. If you know someone with asthma, you know that life can be pretty shitty for them at times. Why should they suffer when we're RIGHT on the cusp of technology that would allow them to breath (mostly) clean air year-round?
If that was the case, I'd absolutely be more willing to trade my car in for a cleaner, newer model. Preventing the suffering of others is a far more convincing motivator than some rather questionable research dependent on literally millions of variables.
Of course, liberals will decry this. They HAVE to be right about THEIR ISSUE, no matter what. It'll be a cold day in hell before I see a liberal hop on board with this, simply because in A DECADE AND A HALF, we've gotten to a point where "compromise" might as well mean "fuck your mother" in American politics.
Whatever. F it.
Vigo