[Sonsowey]

So many people act like The Islamic State is a temporary thing.

They claim about half the territory of Syria and about 1/3 of Iraq, and have declared a caliphate. They have defeated the militaries of Iraq and Syria, for now, and acquired a ton of military gear from them. They are selling oil to the tune of $1-3 million a day, and have just captured a hugely important dam in Iraq.

In the areas they control, they are imposing law and punishing people who disobey, collecting taxes, and to varying degrees, supplying water and electricity etc.

So it seems to me, unless someone takes them out, they are in effect the government of the area they claim.

The United States has only bombed them in specific response to threats of genocide against Yazidis, but has not more generally taken up attacking them in order to unseat them.

It seems like Obama will not specifically go to war with The Islamic State to return territory to Syria and Iraq. So then it likely rests on the shoulders of the Syrian and Iraqi militaries to take back their territory.

Does this seem likely? Or do you imagine the U.S. or some other foreign force will come in and try to destroy The Islamic State?

[Old Fritz]

I don't see the U.S. conducing another invasion of some sort to stop ISIS. I believe we will continue to play a limited role by conducting air strikes and dropping food and supplying equipment. In Iraq it is all up to the Iraqi army and the Kurds to stop them. In Syria it is up to Assad's forces to continue to hold out. That's how it has to be. Foreign intervention needs to stop because it tends to make these situations worse....Though it should be noted that in Syria Iran and Hezbollah has troops while Russia is giving aid. It needs to stay this way.

[iknowexactly]

It seems like it is less costly, if you want to fuck them up, to "be the insurgent."

( Thanks to Roosh for the "be the flake" meme.)

Let
them get puffed up and have their gatherings--every power-mad asshole wants to have crowds around him-- then waste them from planes that they never even see.

That rather than have our troops sitting there waiting to get hit, they just live in fear and cry to the news about how mean we---oops! The spokesperson is dead.

[Quintus Curtius]

These groups are a function of the region's collapse and lawlessness. They are like flies and maggots prospering in the carcass of the ruined states of the region. We need to remember that Iraq and Syria have been torn apart by decades of sanctions, foreign invasion, and unrelenting interference in their internal affairs by various external players, the main ones being the usual agents of destruction in the Middle East.

Before order is restored, there will be many years of warlordism, chaos, and brigandage. It is a huge tragedy and it really pains me to see it happen.

[Rutting Elephant]

I really expect a long-term effect of IS to be an increase in Muslims-turned-atheists or at least "ignostics." This mostly Arab movement does not represent moderates, but can always outshout them on the question of "true Islam."

[Sidney Crosby]

I think the problem could be solved by translating Bang into Arabic.

But really, I don't expect the problem to be solved anytime soon (even in the next 20 years.) All these Arab countries are just so fucking far behind.

[RawGod]

(08-11-2014 01:03 AM)Quintus Curtius Wrote:  

Before order is restored, there will be many years of warlordism, chaos, and brigandage. It is a huge tragedy and it really pains me to see it happen.

Perhaps it is the Caliphate that is actually bringing order, no? Although the undying enmity that western nations will have towards such an entity will mitigate that.

[Deluge]

I don't see how the Islamic State can last in the long-term when it is enemies with every single player in the region. Can it really survive with the USA, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Iraq all hostile to it? Also, it's Al-Qaeda predecessor faced civilian unrest while based in Al Anbar province during the Iraq war, due to the unpopularity of some their stringent laws. Similar could happen to ISIS.

[RawGod]

I think this Islamic State will prove to be a forerunner, a harbinger of long-term change. It's the first real attempt of Arab peoples to redraw the boundaries given to them by the Western powers after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. While it's unlikely to be long-lived, it's significant.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

The Muslim countries as well as the religion of Islam are meant to be more or less wiped out in chaos and bloody wars.

The radicalization of Islam was not something that developed from itself in the 1970s:

   

   

My personal take is that if they had allowed the Muslim countries to go their own way, a moderate form of Islam would have become prevalent similar to Iran of the 1970s or even Iraq (I have friends who grew up in Baghdad in the early 80s and it was a decent city to live in).

Now moderate Islam which is actually quite similar to the traditional US-society in the US, is actually a pain in the butt for the global plutocracy:

- likelihood of them taking greater control of the oil riches
- resistance to usury-system that is actually built into their religion (I know that it is overruled on many levels, but with rising prosperity and moderation that might have resurfaced later on)
- societal changes of sexual liberation, feminism etc. would have taken centuries to bring them to the same level of degeneration as in the US

So they chose the way of deliberate radicalization which in the end most of the young people there do not like.

   

   

I expect more civil wars and bloodshed. Frankly the only way to stop it is to accept a Westernized liberal system similar to Turkey. The global plutocracy will not let them have a moderately conservative Muslim state anywhere in the world. I'd move out of the area altogether - many decades left of bloodshed and tears until they will gladly accept whatever government that brings order into Chaos - the mantra of the NEW WORLD ORDER.

[bojangles]

(08-11-2014 04:03 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

I don't see how the Islamic State can last in the long-term when it is enemies with every single player in the region. Can it really survive with the USA, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Iraq all hostile to it? Also, it's Al-Qaeda predecessor faced civilian unrest while based in Al Anbar province during the Iraq war, due to the unpopularity of some their stringent laws. Similar could happen to ISIS.

Saudi Arabia isnt hostile to the IS, in fact a lot of the sunni countries in the area have said nothing about the IS. It's the Shia governments in Syria, Iran and Iraq who are hostile to it.

Even the Israelis don't care for the IS, though they do support the Kurds.

[DChambers]

(08-11-2014 05:35 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

The Muslim countries as well as the religion of Islam are meant to be more or less wiped out in chaos and bloody wars.

The radicalization of Islam was not something that developed from itself in the 1970s:





My personal take is that if they had allowed the Muslim countries to go their own way, a moderate form of Islam would have become prevalent similar to Iran of the 1970s or even Iraq (I have friends who grew up in Baghdad in the early 80s and it was a decent city to live in).

Now moderate Islam which is actually quite similar to the traditional US-society in the US, is actually a pain in the butt for the global plutocracy:

- likelihood of them taking greater control of the oil riches
- resistance to usury-system that is actually built into their religion (I know that it is overruled on many levels, but with rising prosperity and moderation that might have resurfaced later on)
- societal changes of sexual liberation, feminism etc. would have taken centuries to bring them to the same level of degeneration as in the US

So they chose the way of deliberate radicalization which in the end most of the young people there do not like.





I expect more civil wars and bloodshed. Frankly the only way to stop it is to accept a Westernized liberal system similar to Turkey. The global plutocracy will not let them have a moderately conservative Muslim state anywhere in the world. I'd move out of the area altogether - many decades left of bloodshed and tears until they will gladly accept whatever government that brings order into Chaos - the mantra of the NEW WORLD ORDER.

Nail hit on head for the most part.

Right now in the Middle East we are reaping what we have sowed. By overthrowing the democratically elected government in Iran and installing a dictator, we paved the way for the radical Islamic revolution in 1979.

The ISIS is really just an offshoot of Al Queda with a different name. In addition they were funded for years by donors from our "allies" in the Middle East.

Will the new Islamic State last? Perhaps, so long as we continue to upset the balance in the Middle East and create power vacuums that allow these types of organizations to exist.

Say what you will about Saddam or Assad or Gaddafi, but the dictators kept their countries in line and were actually making progress with Westernizing before we stepped in.

[Orion]

(08-11-2014 01:50 AM)RawGod Wrote:  

(08-11-2014 01:03 AM)Quintus Curtius Wrote:  

Before order is restored, there will be many years of warlordism, chaos, and brigandage. It is a huge tragedy and it really pains me to see it happen.

Perhaps it is the Caliphate that is actually bringing order, no? Although the undying enmity that western nations will have towards such an entity will mitigate that.

Yes, caliphate on the border of Israel will totally bring about peace.

[2014]

Well, my honest thoughts are that they're going to get droned to bits, but left with just enough of an army/resistance to continue the destabilization of the region. Divide and Conquer

[Cattle Rustler]

May the Red Pill State live for a long time.

They're family centric and promote family values
They sun lizards dressing like sluts and to dress conservatively
They shun women going to school because their job is to stay home and be a family woman
They promote men being men and taking the lead
They promote large families
They discourage using clutchs such as drinking and smoking, they're probably all for "clean and sober game'

[Orion]

^^

And they are also morons as well, which deny about 90% of modern scientific breakthrough too.

[Sherman]

This is a vicious religious and civil war. ISIS are Sunni warriors carving out a territory in Syria and Iraq which have Shiite governments. After World War I, English bureaucrats, none of whom ever set foot in the Middle East, redrew the maps of the Middle East from London and set up puppet governments to serve the interests of the British Empire. The people aren't being ruled by their natural leaders.

Saddam Hussein was the only one who could have kept together an artificially created country like Iraq with ethnic groups that don't like each other living under the same flag. He was making progress with a secular government and raising living standards. The US stabbed him in the back based on lies and is responsible for what is happening. Furthermore, to show how screwed up US foreign policy is, senile McCain was trying to get the US to support ISIS against Assad in Syria. If Assad goes, the Christian minority will be massacred in Syria just as the Yazidi are being massacred in Iraq.

The US should stay out of this and allow the local inhabitants to choose their own leaders and redraw their own boundaries. This is unlikely to happen because of oil. In the 1970s, the US made an implicit agreement with Saudi Arabia that if they accepted payment for oil only in US dollars, the US would give them protection(i.e., petrodollars). The democratically elected government of Iran was overthrown by the CIA in the 1950s because the democratically elected leader wanted to nationalize British Oil companies. It's all about oil. Maybe the end solution to all of this is for England to become a Caliphate. That would be the just karma solution.

[Sonsowey]

(08-11-2014 11:53 AM)2014 Wrote:  

Well, my honest thoughts are that they're going to get droned to bits, but left with just enough of an army/resistance to continue the destabilization of the region. Divide and Conquer

Who is going to Drone them?

Obama is not droning them to bits, he is just attacking a specific position to stop genocide against Yazidis.

Also, they're not really destabilizing the region. They're actually stabilizing it.

[Que enspastic]

ISIS has no allies. If they get too powerful Turkey, Israel, Iran or US might be inclined to give them a smack down.

[Que enspastic]

ISIS are brutal. They operate in the fashion of the Mongols under Genghis Khan - the choice is submission and tribute or mass slaughter and a host of other atrocities.

[Phoenix]

I found this interesting. Points out why the US defeated Japan in 4 years, but is still floundering around in Iraq all these years later.

Speach starts around 7:00

[Sonsowey]

(08-11-2014 01:47 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

ISIS has no allies. If they get too powerful Turkey, Israel, Iran or US might be inclined to give them a smack down.

I don't understand this idea.

After watching the United States military flounder for 10 years in Iraq and then leave with its tail between its legs, who is going to want to get into a war there just to oust some guys who are mean?

Everyone knows about their atrocities, their beliefs, and their rapid military success. No one wants to fuck with them. What would the leaders of Iran, Turkey, or Israel gain by agitating a force that has just conquered half 2 neighboring countries?

[turuk]

IS is not just IS. They have support among the moderate Sunni tribes of Iraq and Syria. They want to overthrow the Malaki government in Iraq which is Iranian puppet.

I don't see why US would want to destroy IS. IS is effectively sucking up resources and money from Iran. Iran is spending resources and money in Syria too. Israel is also not complaining. There is a bigger game going on most people can't see.

There is no force that can take on IS. If Iran starts front on IS, Sunni-Shia sectarian war will brake out which Iran will loose. IS is there to stay. There is support among the population.

[svenski7]

Waiting for mikado to tell us that IS is the WAY and the LIGHT!

[Sonsowey]

Mikado will speak for himself but all his comments I have read on Islam stress that Middle East Arab Islam does not represent all of Islam, and that his version is not at all like the crazy stuff you see there.