DoBA, I think that this study would be an excellent candidate for the kind of analysis that I talk about in
this post in my
stats and numeracy thread. I've looked at more than a few of these studies and I know the score.
You have to look at:
1.
What was the definition of "sexual physical and emotional abuse" used in this study? I have no doubt that if you look at the fine print, you'll find that most of the cases of abuse fall under a category (probably "emotional") whose definition is so broad as to render it almost meaningless.
2.
How were the numbers obtained? Were they self-reported by the kids? How can one know what fraction of what was reported actually happened?
3. Taking the "11 times" figure literally for the sake of argument --
how many cases does that really amount to? This goes to the point that a large
relative increase in risk for a given outcome may still amount to a tiny
absolute increase coming from a very low baseline. If the baseline is 1 in 1000, then an "11 times increase" would be 11 in 1000 which is still an
extremely low risk.
It is very important to look under the hood of these studies and understand what is really going on -- I will once again make a plug for
my thread on these matters, although it's just getting started. Otherwise we are helpless in the face of any bogus headline number that might not mean anything like what you'd think it means.
That said. I have no doubt, and indeed know for a fact, that kids in broken families, kids of single moms, etc tend to have less happy childhoods and are very likely to experience less love, warmth, affection and attention than kids from intact families. This is an important subject, and I strongly disapprove of thoughtless frivorces and people who have kids and then don't take the time and effort to give them a good childhood. But there is no need to cheapen this serious matter by invoking a non-existent army of "predator boyfriends", a swarm of imaginary Humberts constantly in search of their ideal Charlotte and Lolita set-up.