[hydrogonian]

(12-17-2010 12:07 PM)kimleebj Wrote:  

But I'll just say this. The Roosh philosophy values values travel and lifestyle more than conformist material comforts. This appeals to a young and poor demographic. Realistically, these readers have, maybe, $10K to invest.

kimleebj comes in with the stiff jab!

How long have you been on here? Do you personally know anyone on these forums?

Your analysis is irrelevant to a large contingent of regular posters here. Not everyone, but enough to make the generalization false. The demographic has a wide range, and quick seemingly assured judgments, likely based on very little forum time, aren't always smart or correct judgments.

Also, what are you doing on a forum with young poor guys?

There should be a similar forum that better suits your own demographic better, and the interests that go along with that wealth and experience (yachts, ascots, luxury autos, divorce lawyers, hookers, beating taxes, the tea party, whatever the latest litigation du jour is, buying a larger McMansion, how your town doesn't need ANOTHER TGI Fridays - but its really not that bad because the secretaries get sloppy there on Fridays and make easy targets, securities strategies, overpriced status symbol liquor, how your kids are unique snowflakes, how much to donate to get your snowflakes into that private school [because you aren't alumnus and you kids aren't academically exceptional], how to hire the cheapest Mexican labor for that new Kitchen your control freak wife won't let up on? I don't know, you tell me). Us younger guys (I think the average age is somewhere in the 30's for the regulars) are fine with our interests and values that have been fleshed out over the course of our short misguided lives.

Although, maybe you should start a thread and show us the light. Seriously, I would welcome it if for nothing but to read the philosophy of a more experienced and wealthy individual. Let me know what I've been missing. What have my large lifelong circle of over-privileged and over educated friends been hiding from me? More importantly, maybe you can educate the guys on here with a LOT of money that their interests are misguided, and only for the poor and the young. There are a lot of guys with money here, several who earn it via the internet and can travel the world banging the most exotic women on the planet while banking 30-40k per year. Some more, and some less. Unlike someone who has to trade their time for money, that income is likely never going away. They likely wouldn't trade their lives with yours, if given the chance, no matter how much you make here. I can't say that for sure, but its a hunch. There are at least a couple of regulars here, and I suspect more based on specific posts, that make $200k from conventional work. They seem to agree with the values of the forum just fine. But maybe you are just more enlightened than them, or perhaps you think $200k/yr is poor.

[young_money]

(12-17-2010 12:07 PM)kimleebj Wrote:  

(12-17-2010 03:41 AM)Chaz Wrote:  

technical analysis.

Why do you think this technical analysis is superior to astrology? Working on both the sell side and the buy side, I never met anyone who did it. There might be some references to price levels in the sell-side company reports, but nobody takes those seriously because they are purely for marketing and business generation.

And what about the evidence? It would be straightforward to program and backtest these goofy indicators, but the studies are scarce. In contrast, there is replicated research that uses past returns to forecast future returns, but it doesn't resemble this subjective stuff. You know where to find it.

I won't rant about market efficiency. But I'll just say this. The Roosh philosophy values values travel and lifestyle more than conformist material comforts. This appeals to a young and poor demographic. Realistically, these readers have, maybe, $10K to invest. If they earned an extra 10% per year then that would be one thousand grocery dollars. They would be far better off focusing on their careers and educations or economizing on their lifestyles.

Technical indicators are not everything, but they can lead us towards making better trades.

The OP talked about taking a big risk (100% potential loss) to maybe get 100% or more ROI.

My point was, show me one single time on the NFLX chart where you could not buy the stock when the STO's hit 20 and sell when they hit 80? I did precisely this over the last 5 months, and made an average profit of 6 - 10% for each of the 5 trades. More importantly, I took very little risk as I put in a sell stop at the 50 dma immediately after buying, starting in August.

It doesn't matter if someone only has $1,000 to invest or $100,000, show me anyone that wouldn't take a 30 - 60% return over 6 months with sell stops limiting their losses to 3% below entry? Is 10% profit going to happen every time? Hell no. But I still average around 4% net profit a month spending less than an hour a week trading.

Personally, I value my time, long term independence, and ability to help others more than any material possessions. I've traveled to Europe and South America, but I will not spend the rest of my life working for someone else. The belief that life is ours to spend the way we desire is something that binds most people on this forum. Most of us are entrepreneurs first and travelers second. This is the mindset that has taken me from nothing to owning two companies by the age of 27. A bad year for me now is six figures and next year my goal is seven. This means I have the rest of my life to travel and the ability to take care of my parents and the rest of my family, who depended upon Corporate America to take care of them. Would I rather be chillin in Miami Beach right now? Hell yeah, but I wont sacrifice my goals for pussy.

I do agree that most people are better off spending their time trying to build a business rather than trading stocks, but you need to chill out with the negativity and generalizations.

[Duke Castile]

Hydro, come on man. Kimleebj is just giving an analysis without trying to be insulting, it just may come off like that. The guy is actually a finance professor at a big university and has done a few other notable things that I'll let him say if he's comfortable with it. I don't think he was trying to put anyone down, I think he was advising the specific group of people that he was referencing with a realistic way of making the most out their money. I think this because, I've been misunderstood on here as well when I was just causally stating what I thought were self evident truths.

[Luckystar]

(12-18-2010 01:24 AM)Fisto Wrote:  

Hydro, come on man. Kimleebj is just giving an analysis without trying to be insulting, it just may come off like that. The guy is actually a finance professor at a big university and has done a few other notable things that I'll let him say if he's comfortable with it. I don't think he was trying to put anyone down, I think he was advising the specific group of people that he was referencing with a realistic way of making the most out their money. I think this because, I've been misunderstood on here as well when I was just causally stating what I thought were self evident truths.

No, it's a backhanded insult. Examine his tone and articulation and it is clear.

I don't doubt he is a very intelligent, however. He has merit in much of what he says, backhandedness aside.

[kimleebj]

(12-18-2010 02:34 AM)Luckystar Wrote:  

it's a backhanded insult. ... He has merit in much of what he says, backhandedness aside.

Thanks for the feedback and qualified support, but please don't mistake disagreement for insult. I sincerely believe what Tevye says:It's no shame to be poor.

Let me be clear about the disagreement. Subutai and Young_Money countenance gambling.

(12-17-2010 02:56 AM)young_money Wrote:  

I ... foolishly bought stock and long term options on what I considered solid investments, which included gold mining stocks, Google, etc. Needless to say, they did not pan out.

I disagree with the gambling approach, disagree with Young_Money's technical analysis, and don't think young guys should focus on investing.

Note that after I posted this, Hydrogonian, Young_Money, and pretty much everyone agreed that it is better to build a business than invest in stocks. Subutai, take note!

[kimleebj]

(12-15-2010 03:29 AM)subutai Wrote:  

mimick the investment moves ... of guys like ... Paulson.

Sorry, I just saw this reference and can't resist. Paulson was an investment banker, not a trader. In other words he made his money from fees, not from bets. Until recently his money was in blind trust.

Anyway, Paulson became CEO when Corzine got fired because of the big losing bets my group of 10 guys made. Ironic, huh?

[Agent_GQ]

(12-18-2010 12:00 PM)kimleebj Wrote:  

(12-15-2010 03:29 AM)subutai Wrote:  

mimick the investment moves ... of guys like ... Paulson.

Sorry, I just saw this reference and can't resist. Paulson was an investment banker, not a trader. In other words he made his money from fees, not from bets. Until recently his money was in blind trust.

Anyway, Paulson became CEO when Corzine got fired because of the big losing bets my group of 10 guys made. Ironic, huh?

I think he's referring to John Paulson, not Hank Paulson.

[MysticTraveler]

Subscribe to any of Casey research publications. Doug Casey, the founder and the brains of the company has a very good track record.

One of things that he said is that all investments go through 3 stages. In the first stage nobody cares about the asset class (gold at $200-600). The second stage is when people think that they missed out on a good opportunity and want to get in the game but are apprehensive to do so because its a little risky (gold 800-$1400) and then comes the mania stage where everyone is buying the asset like crazy. This is when the bubble forms.

As for investing in a business compared to investing in stocks, metals, etc. Its right do so if you have limited resources. I invested in gold when it was at $900 but it was a small investment of $3000. I have made some gains but I would have been better off investing that money in a business and then investing the profits from the business in gold. If you are a millionaire and want to protect your money then invest in precious metals instead of investing in a new business.

[HD668B]

(12-18-2010 11:46 AM)kimleebj Wrote:  

Note that after I posted this, Hydrogonian, Young_Money, and pretty much everyone agreed that it is better to build a business than invest in stocks. Subutai, take note!

Those are 2 different risk levels, you pay much more taxes with a business and you also have to manage clients/logistics whatever. Yes you are your own boss but you have more task to do than just trade.

I do trade technical, but never with retail indicators, stochastic for example is just terrible. And you dont trade it with the 20-70 levels thats RSI, you actually trade the crosses in sto with multiple slow/fast versions..

So really guys, best way is to learn by yourself and open a small account instead of taking months discussing about it on forums...

[JayMillz]

(12-15-2010 03:29 AM)subutai Wrote:  

I've been thinking of making a big bet on one investment.

Click the link... http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... It is a year to date index of the base prices of commodities...

In particular the price of things such as the following have shot up!


* cotton - to make clothes
* iron, copper - for infrastructure
* coffee, barley, corn, wheat
* beef, sugar, oil


Why is this important? well because those are base things, there are many things derived from them. So if the starting out costs have risen then somewhere along the lines at a point in time these costs will be passed onto the consumer. The impact will not be felt immediately because of company inventories and wharehouses.

In short. a storm is coming...

prepare your house

[cellblock4]

the fixed income trade is overcrowded (not as much lately), but i continue to hear a lot of people complaining that inflation is coming down the road. i myself don't believe the inflation hype. personally, i think we'll move along like japan and continue to keep a low rate environment. anyway, if you believe in the inflation story, then TBT might be a good bet. it's a double short on treasuries.

[HD668B]

These guys do take inflation seriously :

http://inflation.us/topnewnianswers.html

Interesting read nevertheless.

[young_money]

(12-18-2010 11:46 AM)kimleebj Wrote:  

(12-18-2010 02:34 AM)Luckystar Wrote:  

it's a backhanded insult. ... He has merit in much of what he says, backhandedness aside.

Thanks for the feedback and qualified support, but please don't mistake disagreement for insult. I sincerely believe what Tevye says:It's no shame to be poor.

Let me be clear about the disagreement. Subutai and Young_Money countenance gambling.

(12-17-2010 02:56 AM)young_money Wrote:  

I ... foolishly bought stock and long term options on what I considered solid investments, which included gold mining stocks, Google, etc. Needless to say, they did not pan out.

I disagree with the gambling approach, disagree with Young_Money's technical analysis, and don't think young guys should focus on investing.

Note that after I posted this, Hydrogonian, Young_Money, and pretty much everyone agreed that it is better to build a business than invest in stocks. Subutai, take note!

Building a business is far superior to trading stocks for many reasons, but not because it is somehow less risky. Most entrepreneurs can attest that it takes years of hard work without pay just for the chance to "make it big". That can also mean serious financial investment and multiple failed companies. Very few people are lucky enough to get it right on the first try.

The reason why it's superior is that the experience gained in learning how to build something from the ground floor cannot be taken away. If I had to start over again tomorrow, I could rely on all my past experiences to guide me. This is something that no one can teach. I also have a good amount of freedom and make a lot more than I ever could with my finance degree alone.

As for stocks, I never risk more than 1% of my portfolio on a single trade. I also keep a large percentage in cash, and always use stops. I do not consider that gambling. Randomly buying and selling stocks by intuition, feel, tip from friend, etc without proper money management and stops, is gambling. I deserved to lose the money I did at the start of my trading career because I did take too many risks and I went by intuition mostly. I am definitely not "countenancing" that. I was just trying to say to the OP that there are other options out there, besides taking huge risks.

As for technical analysis, I know very little and was not trying to come across as some type of expert. I was just trying to explain by memory how I thought stochastics were used by the service I subscribe to. There is obviously a lot more to trading stocks, and no one should use one indicator alone. Moving averages, trend channel support and resistance, along with pullbacks off highs, RSI, and stoh's are all important. I have no interest in staring at charts all day or watching the markets non-stop. I spend less than an hour a week trading stocks that are recommended by a service I trust. They post all winners and losers on their website and have a 63% winning percentage rate. I am making good consistent gains and spending my time on my business, which is what I was recommending. So I guess we do agree.

[HD668B]

T.A. for grownups : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7RmDM_F5Dk