[Genghis Khan]

So what if Freeman Dyson is one of the most brilliant scientists in the past century, doesn't mean he can't be wrong. As a physicist, I'm sure you're well aware of Einstein's position on quantum mechanics?

As for the change in GATA being zero over 17 years. I apologize, I didn't read the part in your original post about taking a 15 year ("The models were predicting significant warming over the past 15 years with high confidence"). For that I'm sorry.

That said, you should know not to take such short time periods for statistical purposes:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/...ence-ipcc/

Quote:

Schmidt pointed out, however, that the real anomaly in the recent climate record is not the last decade but the year 1998, which saw a sharp spike in atmospheric temperatures. "If you take 1998 out, there is no pause," he said. According to NASA data, the ten hottest years since 1880 have all happened since 1998, with 2010 being the hottest of all.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2...pause-ipcc

Quote:

This has occurred despite the fact that claiming that global warming has "paused" is deeply misleading. The IPCC explained as much in its just-released report, where it noted that although the rate of warming is somewhat smaller over the last 15 years, selectively seizing on this period, from 1998-2012, basically represents a case of bad statistics.

After all, the year 1998 was a record temperature year, due to a strong El Niño. So by making it the first year of an analysis you're stacking the deck. "If you shift just 2 years earlier, so use 1996-2010 instead of 1998-2012, the trend is 0.14 C per decade, so slightly greater than the long-term trend," explains Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at NASA who was heavily involved in producing the IPCC report. This is why climate scientists generally don't seize on 15 year periods and make a big thing about them.