Quote: (07-17-2017 10:35 PM)CJ_W Wrote:
Anyway, China HAS to project abroad now, they are in DEEP SHIT. They have 260% GDP in debt caused by Their silly banking policy from 2008 till now(basically about to be Japan if they don't fix their shit)
China does have a debt problem but it's not as serious as some people make it out to be. There are a lot of mitigating factors:
-China's external debt is low, especially in comparison to GDP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co...ernal_debt
USA's external debt/GDP = 98%.
Japan's external debt/GDP= 69%.
China's external debt/GDP = 12.8%
Most of China's debt it owes to itself.
-China's household debt/GDP = 36.1%.
USA's = 80%
Japan's= 66%.
Source: http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings..._debt_gdp/
Also China has one of the highest saving rate in the world (~48%)
-China's government debt/GDP = 20%.
USA's = 73.8%
Japan's = 234%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co...ublic_debt
-Most of China's debt is corporate debt. Which is a problem. But the Chinese government is taking serious measures to deleverage. It's also not an economy-wide problem, but concentrated on SOEs (state-owned enterprises), hence the government has a lot more power in controlling it.
-The debt is in yuan. Meaning the Chinese government can print more money to pay the debt. Unlike Greece which has its debt in euro.
-China has a large foreign reserves. As of June 2017 it has a total of $3.057 trillion. At its peak it was 4.4 trillion.
Read more at: Can China prevent a Greek-style economic disaster due to its large amount of debt? - Quora
Moody’s downgrading of China’s credit rating is without basis amid ‘new normal’ in the economy - SCMP
4 Reasons Why Moody's Is Wrong About China - Forbes
What is the significance of Moody's cutting their credit rating for China?
- Quora
How closely does China's current trajectory mirror that of Japan before the Lost Decade? - Quora
Quote:Quote:
Xi Jinping is in a years long power struggle(err, "campaign against corruption") against Jiang Zemin[Who, by the way is part of the Chinese human organ trafficking ring{He rounded up a bunch of falun gong people and harvested their organs}] He also has some billionaire Chinese businessman helping Jiang Zemin undermine Xi Jinping, so he's got to deal with that madness.
Nothing about this is crippling, especially in long term.
Also, while the US is too busy arguing with each other in congress, and the next president undoes the work of the last, China's leaders are very consistent in following long-term plans. Which countries other than China have two 100-years plans?
https://www.quora.com/Is-the-prominence-...n-Daverman
Quote:Quote:
THEN, there's the Chinese mindset of lack of maintenance for. . .everything,(meaning crumbling infrastructure/housing/everything outside of major cities)
Shoddy buildings are a problem in an earthquake. But overall they're not that bad. They're not intended to last long but to constantly create jobs.
Also when they are really serious about building good infrastructures, they totally can. Look at the subways and high-speed rails.
Quote:Quote:
the demographic timebomb that's just as bad as Japan is COMBINED with the terrible effects of the one child policy...
...in a HUGE demographic crisis (120 men for every 100 women + young couples not having enough children for replacement values which is equaling a HUGE aging Population etc etc)
China has 33 million more men than women in the official number, so the ratio is nowhere near as bad you say. Also they have about 25 million women who are undocumented.
Ever since the one-child policy was lifted, birth rate has been increasing to 18 million births a year in 2016. You can expect to increase as the market for curing infertility is booming.
Also China is much more well-poised to solve the birth-rate problem than Japan, precisely because it's an authoritarian government. See my detailed answer on Quora.
Also, a China's city just launched the world's first unhackable’ quantum network, churned out the world's first gene-edited cloned puppy, and way ahead of the US in fusion energy. They built the world's fastest supercomputers, photon quantum computer, etc. so it's incorrect to say they can only copy. Go to Shenzen and you can see a very dynamic, innovative activities there. Originals, counterfights, copycats, Shenzen has it all.
In term of tecnology: China currently leads in Genomics (CRISPR gene editing), Speech Recognition, Supercomputing; Metamaterials, Graphenics (1, 2), Nanotechnology; 'Fusion Energy', Nuclear Fuel Utilization, Methane Hydrates (Flammable Ice) Energy, Thorium power, Pebble Bed Reactors, Thermal Power generation, UHV Electricity transmission; Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles, Hypersonic Glide Vehicle/Missile; Hyperspectral Imaging, Passive Array Radar, Radiotelescopy; In-Space Refueling, Satellite Quantum Encrypted Communication Networks; Drone; E-commerce, Mobile Payment.
In term of scientific research: China has long surpassed the US in patent applications. It has made significant game-changing inventions, too. China's Tsinghua unversities now ranked #1 in engineering, according to USNews. The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is ranked as the most influential scientific institution since 2015 by the NatureIndex. Just a few weeks ago, the Japan Science and Technology Agency announced that China now ranks as the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields (computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering), and is level with the USA in a fifth, physics. As China is planning to build Supercollider Higgs Factory Twice The Size Of CERN's Large Hadron Collider, it's reasonable to expect China will surpass America in physics, too.
I have detailed more here
Now it's American high-tech companies that're starting to copy China.
China's military is stepping up its gears, too. Such as in Hypersonic weapons, as just one example (the us played a role in China's advance). With the Integrated Electrical Propulsion System, Chinese submarines could soon be quieter than US ones. Look at this baby type 055 destroyer before you conclude that China's military is a joke. China has the industrial power to churn out a lot more warships like this. The US became a superpower because it was an industrial superpower in WWII - which it no longer is.