Its actually a somewhat perplexing move by Obama. I'm still really unsure as to whether this is a good move or a bad move and to be quite frank it seems to me a political move where he appeases all the non Cubans in the US while pissing off the Cuban people.
In terms of tourism numbers the actual numbers of American tourists are still a drop in the bucket...By that I mean non-Cuban Americans. One thing that has certainly occurred is increasing investment in local businesses by Cuban Americans abroad particularly in the rental and food industries. The problem is the tourism numbers aren't growing remotely in line with the rental and food industries. The money is spreading wider and more Cubans are obtaining reasonable incomes via businesses rather than the few guys on top making a killing. This probably occurred in my opinion due both in part to the rapproach but also due to the lessening of restrictions on private enterprises amongst the Cuban people.
Having seen first hand the lack of change in Cuba tourism as a result of all his negotiating with Cuba. I.e. US tourism is still very low despite all the flights given to them. They are effectively a drop in the bucket when we are talking non Cuban Americans.
I was in Holguin about 5 weeks last year. I met one American and that was when I was in the hotels. I never met an American while I was in the city. My long term girlfriends friend works as what is essentially the equivalent to an escort here...like here there are variances in cost based on locational and appearance factors. I asked her about American tourism as she is in direct conversation with tourists on a daily basis from all over. Her words were that there are almost none in Holguin.
Havana is a people to people location so the raw numbers certainly increased there but Cuba has two tourisms. The first tourism is the people who stay in the hotels and go the mickey mouse route. That is probably upwards of 95% of non Cuban American tourism. The other 5% are people who are outside of hotels staying in Casa particulars, enjoying and taking in the local culture.
Lets say tourism went up 500k in the last year from 4 million to 4.5 million which seems a reasonable estimate. That means the people actually in the cities putting money in Cuban people outside of the cookie cutter hotel locations might have gone from 200,000 to 225,000. Honestly I go out rather regularly when I'm there and I'd have guessed tourism went down rather than up within the city. The difference that Obama's policy is making in the lives of ordinary Cubans not those privileged enough to work in the tourism industry is quite frankly negligible.
Just last year there were talks of booms of 5 million + American tourists going per year, what happened is far from that. The American and foreign tourists who go for history and go see Havana are going there once and crossing it off the bucket list.
I'm not sure really how Trump will play this because he knows what Obama did will probably appease a lot of latin voters while upsetting many Cuban voters. It's a bit risky in terms of alienating other latin voters if he retracts it and basically says Cubans still have priority. But if he doesn't do it he may be seen as retracting on his campaign promises to the Cuban Americans who helped elect him. If I'm Trump I don't touch it but go after the travel restrictions lifting / renegotiate for some modest concessions if possible and call it a day.
In terms of tourism numbers the actual numbers of American tourists are still a drop in the bucket...By that I mean non-Cuban Americans. One thing that has certainly occurred is increasing investment in local businesses by Cuban Americans abroad particularly in the rental and food industries. The problem is the tourism numbers aren't growing remotely in line with the rental and food industries. The money is spreading wider and more Cubans are obtaining reasonable incomes via businesses rather than the few guys on top making a killing. This probably occurred in my opinion due both in part to the rapproach but also due to the lessening of restrictions on private enterprises amongst the Cuban people.
Having seen first hand the lack of change in Cuba tourism as a result of all his negotiating with Cuba. I.e. US tourism is still very low despite all the flights given to them. They are effectively a drop in the bucket when we are talking non Cuban Americans.
I was in Holguin about 5 weeks last year. I met one American and that was when I was in the hotels. I never met an American while I was in the city. My long term girlfriends friend works as what is essentially the equivalent to an escort here...like here there are variances in cost based on locational and appearance factors. I asked her about American tourism as she is in direct conversation with tourists on a daily basis from all over. Her words were that there are almost none in Holguin.
Havana is a people to people location so the raw numbers certainly increased there but Cuba has two tourisms. The first tourism is the people who stay in the hotels and go the mickey mouse route. That is probably upwards of 95% of non Cuban American tourism. The other 5% are people who are outside of hotels staying in Casa particulars, enjoying and taking in the local culture.
Lets say tourism went up 500k in the last year from 4 million to 4.5 million which seems a reasonable estimate. That means the people actually in the cities putting money in Cuban people outside of the cookie cutter hotel locations might have gone from 200,000 to 225,000. Honestly I go out rather regularly when I'm there and I'd have guessed tourism went down rather than up within the city. The difference that Obama's policy is making in the lives of ordinary Cubans not those privileged enough to work in the tourism industry is quite frankly negligible.
Just last year there were talks of booms of 5 million + American tourists going per year, what happened is far from that. The American and foreign tourists who go for history and go see Havana are going there once and crossing it off the bucket list.
I'm not sure really how Trump will play this because he knows what Obama did will probably appease a lot of latin voters while upsetting many Cuban voters. It's a bit risky in terms of alienating other latin voters if he retracts it and basically says Cubans still have priority. But if he doesn't do it he may be seen as retracting on his campaign promises to the Cuban Americans who helped elect him. If I'm Trump I don't touch it but go after the travel restrictions lifting / renegotiate for some modest concessions if possible and call it a day.