Venezuela is collapsing - Printable Version

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Venezuela is collapsing - 911 - 05-11-2017

That's my thought, their diabetes, heart disease and stroke rates are going to plummet going forward. Especially with all of this physical activity and calories burned protesting.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Wayout - 05-11-2017

Video of a protest relevant to our interest!

How would you embed it so there's no hot-linking?

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Venezuela is collapsing - Foolsgo1d - 05-11-2017

Its a run away train with emotions now over there. You're going to see the police and military go balls deep and then the people will go ape in return.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Leonard D Neubache - 05-11-2017

Does anyone else get the sense that Maduro is simply desperately hoping for a spike in oil prices?

He would have to be sitting in his office looking at Russian/US relations and the troubles in Syria just hoping every damn second for something to kick off there, since the resultant jump in oil would literally save his ass.

And between now and such an occurrence he'll do everything he can to hold on to power just waiting on that critical event that will re-float the Venezuelan economy.

edit: I bet that desperate fucker has even dreamed of sending a crack team of Venezuelan operators to stage a false flag attack against an American target with Russian weapons.

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Venezuela is collapsing - 911 - 05-11-2017

Oil prices aren't going to come up. The US is stepping up production and Trump is going to scrap the Paris accord scam, the Gulf countries are strapped for cash and are losing market share so they will turn their taps all the way on. Oil prices are going to level off in the $30s-$40s for the next couple of years.

Venezuela has everything it needs to be successful, large country, relatively small population (31M), beautiful coastline, lots of resources. They just need to get their $hit together.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Wreckingball - 05-12-2017

Oil can spike, but Venezuela is buying American oil.
Due to no maintenance, their rigs don't have safety conditions to operate. Some rigs have been attacked, others lack parts for extraction.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Simeon_Strangelight - 05-12-2017

Quote: (05-11-2017 01:56 PM)Mikan Wrote:  

http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515

"Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed."

Regarding the effect on the price of oil in the current crisis, it's certainly a major factor. It's actually impressive how much they were making off oil before the price droped, concidering how incompetently the state run oil monopoly eventually was. It wasn't just political elites that Chavez drove out; he also purged top admistrative and technical talent from the oil industry. I can't think of a better example of biting the hand that feeds you as Chavez firing his most experienced technicians and petroleum engineers. The levels of incompetence are truely stunning.

Weight, diabetes and old-age mortality is one thing and of course they are right.

But what they don't tell is that the malnourishment (and that is what it is) creates a shorter, dumber, sicker population. Eastern Germans were 3 inches shorter than Western Germans - all with identical genetics. It certainly impacted other metrics like intelligence and immune system. After the fall of communism Eastern German height shot up 3 inches with the next generation.

Venezuela is not only cutting down on pure calories while giving you nutritious food (something that everyone in the world would profit from) - they are cutting down on everything including essential nutrients for pregnant women and children.

But they voted for Chavez and thought that it was better. South American countries fluctuate between outright robber-baron capitalism and communism. They cannot get the balance straight somehow. Argentina will likely join Western style first world status as the first South American nation. As for the rest of the countries - I see constant ups and downs in the next decades.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Latinopan - 05-12-2017

Quote: (05-09-2017 08:26 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  

Quote: (05-09-2017 08:10 AM)username Wrote:  

Quote: (05-08-2017 07:43 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

It's amazing how things have escalated/deteriorated even in the year this thread has been up.

It is frightening how things are deteriorating worse and worse there. When ever I see an update to this thread I fear the government has begun shooting down the opposition.

It is also frustrating how most of the US media is ignoring the situation in Venezuela. They built up Chavez as a hero and model for years and now can't possibly admit they were wrong.

Quote: (05-08-2017 07:45 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

How many of these dudes voted for Chavez, I wonder?

Considering how popular Chavez was, probably 75 to 85% of them.

Chavez is an idol and will probably remain an idol. He, temporarily, took the majority of people out of extreme poverty. He did not make them rich, but raised their life quality. Naturally it had a price, first loss of economic freedom, then loss of civil liberty. And of course, it was all dependent on the oil. So when the oil price came crashing down, it was just a matter of time until extreme failure.

It's such a wonder to see how quickly well intent socialism always turns into full-mode dictatorship. The moment economic freedom is gone, the civil liberty quickly follows.

Lesson to Bernie Sanders, Melenchon, Tsipras, Podemitas and other pseudo commies around the world: It doesn't work. And if it seems like it's working, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Quote: (05-10-2017 09:22 PM)PapayaTapper Wrote:  

I for one am willing to step up and do my part by agreeing to host a few Venesolana refugettes in my home.
I can't help it, I'm a giver like that.

You know the same feminist in favor "refuge welcome" only want "refugees" because they know for fact they are a bunch of men, if the refugees were a bunch of young marriage age women you know they will be against.

Quote: (05-12-2017 05:30 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

Quote: (05-11-2017 01:56 PM)Mikan Wrote:  

http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515

"Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed."

Regarding the effect on the price of oil in the current crisis, it's certainly a major factor. It's actually impressive how much they were making off oil before the price droped, concidering how incompetently the state run oil monopoly eventually was. It wasn't just political elites that Chavez drove out; he also purged top admistrative and technical talent from the oil industry. I can't think of a better example of biting the hand that feeds you as Chavez firing his most experienced technicians and petroleum engineers. The levels of incompetence are truely stunning.

Weight, diabetes and old-age mortality is one thing and of course they are right.

But what they don't tell is that the malnourishment (and that is what it is) creates a shorter, dumber, sicker population. Eastern Germans were 3 inches shorter than Western Germans - all with identical genetics. It certainly impacted other metrics like intelligence and immune system. After the fall of communism Eastern German height shot up 3 inches with the next generation.

Venezuela is not only cutting down on pure calories while giving you nutritious food (something that everyone in the world would profit from) - they are cutting down on everything including essential nutrients for pregnant women and children.

But they voted for Chavez and thought that it was better. South American countries fluctuate between outright robber-baron capitalism and communism. They cannot get the balance straight somehow. Argentina will likely join Western style first world status as the first South American nation. As for the rest of the countries - I see constant ups and downs in the next decades.

Good example is what happens right now with North Korea and South Korea, despite having the same genetics North Koreans are shorter, lower IQ and lower live expectancy.

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Venezuela is collapsing - 911 - 05-13-2017

The Caribbean/ctrl American diets are very good though, poor people there live well on beans, rice, fruits, roots, greens and the occasional cheap catch of the day, that's a very healthy diet. Modern westerners and east Asians got bigger because they eat meat and dairy pumped to the gills with hormones. FOBs Asians back in the 1980s used to be skinny, the women flat as a plank, but they weren't any dumber. Maybe it's just because they were a bit hungrier then, figuratively speaking...

Looking at mortality rates of Cuba and a chart of their top 50 causes of death, some interesting patterns: they do well with strokes and heart disease, but have high incidences of prostate and uterine cancers (but not ovary cancers), and high alzheimer and hep C.


CUBA TOP 50 CAUSES OF DEATH

Here's the picture for Venezuela:

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/count.../venezuela

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Venezuela is collapsing - scotian - 05-14-2017






Sad but funny

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Venezuela is collapsing - Tully Mars - 05-15-2017

I was in Isla Margartia last year at one of the nicer beach front hotels. The staff was excited one morning because they had pancakes. I was saddened that every meal really was the same....rice, eggs, some fish/seafood mix, and pappaya/pina. It's no joke how absolutely horrible things have become there.

Colin Post just did a great in-depth article on possible scenario's for the future of Venezuela very interesting read.

http://www.expat-chronicles.com/2017/05/...ransition/

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Venezuela is collapsing - Foolsgo1d - 05-15-2017

If you have food to eat it still isn't as horrible as it could be. Hunger drives people insane and towards violence they'd otherwise never think of, such as murder and/or cannibalism.

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Venezuela is collapsing - tom - 05-15-2017

Quote: (05-15-2017 08:38 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

If you have food to eat it still isn't as horrible as it could be. Hunger drives people insane and towards violence they'd otherwise never think of, such as murder and/or cannibalism.

Despite people being soft and domesticated nowadays. Every one of us is descended from countless people who did whatever it took to survive such times.
Such times don't rear soft men.

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Venezuela is collapsing - ed pluribus unum - 05-19-2017

Venezuelan General Wants Snipers for Crowd Control

Quote:Quote:

Claiming to be primed for civil war, a Venezuelan general issued orders to prepare for the future use of snipers against anti-government protesters, according to a secret recording of a regional command meeting held three weeks ago at a military base in the northwestern Venezuelan city of Barquisimeto.

What is of note is how he has rationalized such an escalation:

Quote:Quote:

“Sadly, this is the beginning of a war, gentlemen,” he said. “They [the protesters] will continue until reaching the point where an [international] intervention is justified. Let’s not fool ourselves. Sadly, it fell to our generation to live with this conflict, and we have to assume it to the degree that is being demanded by our country.”

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Venezuela is collapsing - Leonard D Neubache - 05-20-2017

If protesting becomes a lottery of death-by-sniper then the people of Venezuela will simply begin violent resistance in earnest.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Simeon_Strangelight - 05-20-2017

The funny part is that EE people under communism rioted under much lesser austerity and they had no chance of help from abroad. Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland - all those places had massive riots when conditions were much much better than in Venezuela. And most of those cases the Soviet Union or the local military (under threat of Soviet invasion) quelled the riots.

If this had been Europe, then there would already be massive militias and large parts of the military and police force already beginning to switch allegiance. To everyone out there who always asks, why you need IQ - it is overrated after all? That is why - you need general IQ to understand the situation you are in (for a broad scale) - also you need some kind of rebellious spirit (they have that in Venezuela, so it is rather the first thing lacking). The truth is that currently no help is forthcoming if it does not descend into open revolt.

What we have here is the building of a South American North Korea, but just with people who are far less obedient and a system that is far worse controlled. The support for Maduro is still at 10-20%? And most of the die-hard supporters will be armed while the rest are not. Honestly some beginning form of genocide may be a solid option for Venezuela. Otherwise this crap may continue for decades. If Maduro starts killing people en masse, then intervention from other countries and the US is very likely. Otherwise it is a long way down to final stage communism.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Going strong - 05-20-2017

I renew my "prediction", stated months ago on this thread: D. Trump will, at some point, save the Venezuelan suffering, starving civilian population, by sending in the all-mighty US Army; it'll be over very quickly, like in Panama years ago: maybe we'll have 2 days of light fighting, no American casualty, a few targeted missile strikes on specific targets, and curtain. The Trump administration is obviously waiting for the right moment to strike, which will be, like, one week after President Trump's return from his first trip abroad?

It will at the same time erase the "Russia meddling" narrative from the media, please the anti-Commie base of D. Trump voters, and guarantee tons of cheap oil to US companies and refineries. Also, it will save hundreds of thousands of lives of desperate civilians. Good business, good PR: a military intervention is quite certain to happen. If I were senor Maduro, I would sleep in a deep bunker as soon as D. Trump returns from his trip... and pray that no MOAB falls from the clear, beautiful Venezuelan sky, like a vengeful bolt of God(-Emperor)

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Venezuela is collapsing - Leonard D Neubache - 05-20-2017

^If he does it will be a mistake.

Nothing will happen until you start seeing a trickle of tweets from Trump about the situation there. People are hungry and some are being arrested but it's not a communist nightmare or a failed state yet.

Trump has to wait for things to get worse and make sure the troubles there are widely circulated in the minds of Americans, which would be extremely difficult because the old-media don't want to give any air time to "the latest failed socialist state".

Personally I think Trump should stay out of it unless he has intel that suggests another foreign power is about to make a move. The potential for a clusterfuck is too high. Such things rarely go to plan, especially if another superpower decides to train and arm certain elements of the old guard. Then you'll have a geurilla war which would be El-Salvador all over again, complete with the refugees that Trump will have to take ownership of.

Meanwhile even the poorer SA states will see the intervention as Trump setting up OPs on their doorstep. They too will have every reason to throw a spanner in the works as well as to turn that old chestnut that the USA is only after the oil, as usual.

I see it as nothing but a potential PR disaster, besides which, foreign entanglements were something Trump was specifically elected to avoid.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Foolsgo1d - 05-20-2017

In regards to that sniper comment. There were snipers in Syria going at it killing people indiscriminantly before it went to hell and what happened next is for all to see.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Going strong - 05-20-2017

Quote: (05-20-2017 06:33 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

Nothing will happen until you start seeing a trickle of tweets from Trump about the situation there. People are hungry and some are being arrested but it's not a communist nightmare or a failed state yet.

Trump has to wait for things to get worse and make sure the troubles there are widely circulated in the minds of Americans, which would be extremely difficult because the old-media don't want to give any air time to "the latest failed socialist state".

Personally I think Trump should stay out of it unless he has intel that suggests another foreign power is about to make a move. The potential for a clusterfuck is too high. Such things rarely go to plan, especially if another superpower decides to train and arm certain elements of the old guard. Then you'll have a guerilla war which would be El-Salvador all over again, complete with the refugees that Trump will have to take ownership of.

Meanwhile even the poorer SA states will see the intervention as Trump setting up OPs on their doorstep. They too will have every reason to throw a spanner in the works as well as to turn that old chestnut that the USA is only after the oil, as usual.

I agree with parts of your post; in particular, the necessary PR strategy is well described ("troubles there -in Venezuela- need to be widely circulated in the minds of Americans", plus, tweets) by you.

I disagree on other parts:

"People are hungry and some are being arrested but it's not a communist nightmare or a failed state": you are understating the situation, which is: 50 deaths these last days of manifestations, with tons of opponents imprisoned (especially, all White politicians are jailed, their spouses on hunger strike), millions starving...

"The potential for a clusterfuck is too high. Such things rarely go to plan, especially if another superpower decides to train and arm certain elements of the old guard": Venezuela has no functional Army, just commie militias. Think Noriega's Panama.

And if you think the... Russians? are going to fight for Venezuela... Not happening. The Russian people and voters (and military) do not care about the fate of a far-away, fat, AfroCarribean-looking foreign president. No Russian will die for Maduro, they wouldn't even give him the time of the day in the streets of Moscow.

the refugees that Trump will have to take ownership of: nothing like the Lampedusa brutish, rapey male migrants: Venezuelan refugees would be, 50% of cute women with wide asses and ample bosoms... Matter of fact there would be few refugees, because a free Venezuela would once again become a perfect tropical paradise. Especially for us on the forum, truth be told... Poosy paradise it'd be, the last one maybe...

[/i]Meanwhile even the poorer SA states[/i]: who cares about them? Nobody, no disrespect intended, but, sad reality is...

Anyway, I have little doubt that some smart casus belli is being prepared and set (Does Maduro have lethal gas by the way? Or a Maidan place in his capital ). Maybe, who knows, recently President Trump met with mister Santos, to extend, proffer, a possible, and respectable, support for an intervention by proxy?

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Venezuela is collapsing - scotian - 05-20-2017

Does anyone know what the level of regional animosity within Venezeuela is like and if there are particular regions that are more pro-government than others?

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Venezuela is collapsing - Leonard D Neubache - 05-20-2017

^@Going Strong: All possible, but when I was referring to foreign intervention I didn't necessarily mean military. If China was to dump a billion dollars there to prop up Maduro's regime or just send a shitload of food as a pressure relief valve then they'd be able to name their price, up to and including flooding the country with their own oil workers and getting a foothold in SA.

And America wont get hot, female refugees. They'll get what first world nations always get. Young, unmarried men with high mobility, no prospects, no social anchors and bright blue balls.

As for a few people being killed/arrested and the nation "starving", until you see people walking around looking like skeletons and evidence of mass graved then there will be little appetite for intervention from Americans, and frankly that's the way it should be.

If Trump rolled in there now then Venezuela would be the metaphorical albatross the rest of the world would hang around his neck. Revisionist history would instantly kick into overdrive and until the sun burned out we'd hear nothing but the "fact" that things weren't so bad down there and they were about to turn it all around when warmonger Trump rushed in to enslave the noble Venezuelans and suck their oil wells dry like a giant parasitic worm.

Even the Venezuelans themselves would soon forget the hunger and the arrests and the killings. All they would remember was that they used to be a sovereign nation with pride and independence, and now they were the USA's southern side-bitch, which is precisely what the rest of SA would mock them as being.

Even if Trump toppled Maduro and walked away, these socialist morons would be back to starving themselves a week later after electing some other dickhead who promised them unprecedented prosperity for a two day work week.

You can't help a socialism addict until they hit rock bottom. Only when the next generation and the generation afterward can see pictures of their parents and grandparents looking like flesh-draped skeletons, only when they can visit the mass graves where they know some of their relatives to have been unceremoniously heaped like garbage will they know to fear full-retard socialism no matter what nonsense utopia it promises.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Mekorig - 05-22-2017

If things began to go shit, expect Colombia or Argentina to "lose" some weapon crates around the rebelds are, if not creating a coalition to intervene.

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Venezuela is collapsing - lonewolf1992 - 05-23-2017

The things are just so bad that venezuelans are flooding colombia and accomplishing the 'Colombian dream'.They start a new life here and you can see how happy they are. I think to myself, jesus, the economy here is pretty f*ck*d up and these guys feel like cubans in Florida. Makes you put things in perspective.

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Venezuela is collapsing - Paracelsus - 05-30-2017

For normal dictatorship shitshow conditions, there's food, oil, and fiat control.

For everything else, there's Goldman Sachs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezu...SKBN18Q1D6

Quote:Quote:

(Reuters/IFR) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc's statement that it never transacted directly with the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro when it bought $2.8 billion of bonds for pennies on the dollar was dismissed by the country's opposition on Tuesday as an effort to "put lipstick on this pig."

Goldman, in a statement late Monday confirming the purchase, said its asset-management arm acquired the bonds "on the secondary market from a broker and did not interact with the Venezuelan government."

The New York-based investment bank came under fire from Venezuelan politicians and protesters in New York opposed to Maduro, who said the deal provided the cash-strapped government hundreds of millions of dollars in badly-needed hard currency. The deal, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, made Goldman complicit in alleged human rights abuses under the government, they said.

"As hard as it may try, Goldman Sachs ... cannot put lipstick on this pig of a deal for Venezuelans," the head of the opposition-led congress Julio Borges said.

Goldman Sachs did not respond to an email requesting comment on Borges' statement. In its original statement, Goldman had said: "We recognize that the situation is complex and evolving and that Venezuela is in crisis. We agree that life there has to get better, and we made the investment in part because we believe it will."

The opposition-led National Assembly later on Tuesday voted to ask the U.S. Congress to investigate the deal, which they called immoral, opaque, and hypocritical given the socialist government's anti-Wall Street rhetoric.

Goldman shares fell nearly 2 percent on Tuesday and were the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 0.24 percent.

With Venezuela's inefficient state-led economic model struggling under lower oil prices, Maduro's unpopular government has become ever more dependent on financial deals or asset sales to bring in coveted foreign exchange. Venezuela's international reserves rose by $749 million on Thursday and Friday, reaching around $10.86 billion, according to the central bank.

In New York, about two dozen protesters chanting "Shame on you Goldman Sachs" picketed outside of Goldman's headquarters in lower Manhattan on Tuesday afternoon.

"By giving $900 million to a dictatorship, they are funding a systematic human rights violator, they are funding immorality and for Maduro to stay in power while he keeps killing people," said Eduardo Lugo, 23, a Venezuelan attending college in New York and a leader of the protest.

Another protest was planned for Miami, home to a large community of Venezuelans who have fled the country's economy crisis, on Thursday.

In Venezuela, Maduro's critics have for two months staged street protests, which have left nearly 60 people dead, to demand he hold early elections. Maduro says the protests are a violent effort to overthrow his government, and insists the country is the victim of an "economic war" supported by Washington.

Meanwhile, emerging market bond market participants familiar with Venezuelan debt said there was no effective secondary market for the bonds in question, which were first issued by the state-owned oil company PDVSA [PDVSA.UL.] in 2014 and held entirely by the country's central bank until recently.

Goldman paid 31 cents on the dollar for the bonds, which mature in October 2022, Borges' letter said. At that price, the bonds would yield more than 40 percent compared with their stated coupon of 6 percent.

Goldman acquired the bonds from Dinosaur Financial Group, two sources familiar with deal told Reuters.

A person answering the phone at Dinosaur's New York office said the firm had no comment on the matter.

Opposition lawmakers said they wanted to investigate intermediaries in the deal.

"We're going to put a magnifying glass on this financial middleman. This small company called Dinosaur, who is behind it, what power does it have?" said lawmaker Carlos Valero before the vote.

One U.S. broker deeply involved in trading Venezuelan securities told Thomson Reuters IFR that fair value for the bonds should be around 44 cents to 46 cents on the dollar, based on where other bonds issued by PDVSA and the Venezuelan government were trading on Tuesday.

The broker said he did not expect the bonds to trade unless Goldman chose to sell them. At $2.8 billion of face value, the firm now owns the vast majority of that series of bonds originally issued by PDVSA, which totaled around $3 billion.

Most Venezuelan bond prices were up in Tuesday trading.

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