[ChicagoFire]

I listen to the Future Skills podcast hosted by Luvig Sunstrom. I'm about halfway through the catalog and the gist of what he's saying is technology will revolutionize our society.

I say 25% of the content is average (like the physical tools podcast) but the rest is above average or exceptional. The podcast even mentions early entry fields like quantum computing and AI research.

[joost]

Try Nassim Taleb "Barbell strategy":

I would wait for the 3% interest in cash from Robinhood and keep my money there. Maybe 70% there and the rest in stocks that pay +6%.

If an opportunity arrives, you'll have liquidity/power.

- But when do I know if it's a good opportunity?
If you're in doubt if the price is low, probably it isn't.

If there's another correction, you can use another chunk of your cash to buy assets (stocks).

[TopPanda]

Currently selling my UK apartment so I can free up more cashflow and become a high net worth individual in about 4 years.

I go for stuff that pays out good dividends. I just love getting dividends, preferably on a monthly basis. My income from this is growing 10% a year (without investing additional capital). It's several years since my investment income overtook my side-hustle income.

I'm mainly in funds but would like to buy more individual stocks and also some investment trusts.

Digital currencies are cooked. I just bought Imperial Brands at a 7.3% yield. Smoking ain't ever going out of fashion.

[Sidney Crosby]

I was listening to the radio the other day and an economist was talking about how he predicts housing will be down over the next decade. The factors he mentioned are the upcoming recession as well as the amount of boomers that are retiring and plan on selling their house and downsizing or moving into some sort of nursing home/assisted living. He mentioned that 40% of the detached homes in Canada and the States are owned by boomers and if you only look at the higher end market the percentage is much higher.

Real estate still seems to be one of the best long term investments though, but if I was in the market to buy anything I'd hold off.

[joost]

I would run away from real estate. ROI is so low these days. Maybe you can find something worthwhile in Turkey (due to currency crisis). But worldwide you’ll be making 3% a year! It might protect you from inflation but it’s not passive as buying a stock. You have to administer it. Pay for fixes and you won’t have the place rented 100% of the time.

Unless you have a few millions in the bank, I would not put a good portion of my portfolio in a single asset.

The only real estate I would have would be building a 2 (or more) story apartment and rent the (independent) apartments bellow and keep the penthouse for me. So I would have a home without having to worry about property tax since I would be making money from the tenants below. If I don’t like the “neighbors” I could always kick them.

[godzilla]

If you're a regular reader here, you are aware of the decline of the West. Some things to think about.

-Obesity

There will likely be more taxes and regulations coming to try to curtail obesity. You're already seeing soda taxes in some major cities. The same thing happened to cigarettes years ago. The largest companies benefit from this. I believe up until 2 or 3 years ago Altria, the owner of Marlboro was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 since 1968. Think Coca Cola, Pepsi might be good.

-Opioid Crisis

Think drugs to help for opioid dependency or marijuana which seems to be better for pain management.

- Homosexuality

The rate of homosexuality is still increasing. You can invest in companies that make drugs for HIV and colon cancer. Gilead is the leader here I believe, probably some experimental treatments as well.

- Automation

Think companies that are helping automate things and simplify things. Cloud computing works here. Think Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.

- Delayed marriage

As people get married later, they will spend their money on other things instead of saving and family. Think about travel, sports, etc. Some companies might be Marriott, Airbnb for example.

-Female consumerism

Harder to predict which companies will succeed here, though as you've seen my APPL stock, finding the next big thing might lead to big gains.

[Australia Sucks]

Godzilla I have to disagree with you on the part about Pepsi and Coca-Cola being good. There is a structural shift in developed markets away from sodas, etc towards premium/niche products like organic cold pressed juice, kombucha, glacier water, etc. You can see it when you compare sales growth figures for these types of products compared to products like Coca-Cola. While developing markets consumption of sodas, etc are rising this may not be enough to offset the stagnation in developed markets. Furthermore supermarket private label brands are gaining momentum for the working class/price conscious consumer.

As to homosexuality even though what you are saying is true for a company the size of Gilead such drugs are likely to only be a modest portion of sales and it may be difficult to find quality pure plays on the theme.

The rest of your points I largely agree with.

[Swordfish1010]

Bitcoin. At least buy 1 full one and sit on it for 10+ years.

[godzilla]

(03-31-2019 03:42 PM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  

Godzilla I have to disagree with you on the part about Pepsi and Coca-Cola being good. There is a structural shift in developed markets away from sodas, etc towards premium/niche products like organic cold pressed juice, kombucha, glacier water, etc. You can see it when you compare sales growth figures for these types of products compared to products like Coca-Cola. While developing markets consumption of sodas, etc are rising this may not be enough to offset the stagnation in developed markets. Furthermore supermarket private label brands are gaining momentum for the working class/price conscious consumer.

As to homosexuality even though what you are saying is true for a company the size of Gilead such drugs are likely to only be a modest portion of sales and it may be difficult to find quality pure plays on the theme.

The rest of your points I largely agree with.

You make a good point on the soda thing. Still, I don't see anyone in the bottom 20%-40% or so drinking glacier water of kombucha. Its mostly an upperclass thing and their price points are not competitive at this point. I think whats happening in the drink market is similar to what happened in the beer market where a lot of craft beer took market share from largest piss water beer. However, many craft beers are still far more competitive than say kombucha is to soda.

You are correct on Gilead, They have a large Hep C business that is in decline and it might not be a good investment.

For the record, other than a small amount of money in KO, i have no positions in any of these themes at the moment and I'm merely throwing around ideas for people who read the forum.

[ChicagoFire]

Re: Real estate

I think you should have some exposure to real estate and I personally have REITs. Like some have said long term real estate is always going to appreciate, one of the reasons being quality land is a scarce resource. My biggest concern with real estate is the rise of socialism, hence why I'm iffy on applying for mortgages. If you invest in something location dependent and the Bolsheviks force you to cede your land that would be quite a loss.

@Swordfish
I suggest listening to the economist Eric Townsend. I think he's right that bitcoin isn't a sustainable currency and he understands how the movement started because of disgust of central banking. One of his arguing points is government can ban crypto and I would argue if they really were threatened by it they would tax crypto.

[Tully Mars]

Have to disagree on not investing in Coke. Its a beast and a solid longterm investment.

https://www.coca-colaproductfacts.com/en/products/

Coca-Cola is a monster company they are not just soft-drinks. They have swallowed up a lot of the competition in health drinks, water, juices, protein drinks, sports drinks, iced coffee...

When Warren Buffett owns 9% of Coca-Cola you know its a company that’s gonna be a solid investment over time.

[Old Fart]

(03-26-2019 11:49 PM)joost Wrote:  

Try Nassim Taleb "Barbell strategy":

He didn't explain the "barbell" part.

[Sidney Crosby]

Pop sales are down but just wait till they Coke and Pepsi come out with some CBD drinks, the stuff will probably fly off the shelves, at least for a while.

[Iconoclast007]

Im buying Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks and Cryptocurrency.

[trickster]

A great investment is buying whole life life insurance policies from people that need the cash surrender values from the policies. They need to be in bad health and have a short life expectancy. Offer more than the cash surrender value of the policies. It's a win-win for everyone.

[Iconoclast007]

Trickster.

Have you actually done this? Can you expand a bit on how this works.

[trickster]

Yes I have. It helps to be in a career or know people in a career that do business with the elderly. Usually this means dealing with the kids or grand-kids of the people that actually own the insurance policies. There are different govt benefits for the elderly that require financial/legal planning in order to qualify. In other words, these benefits have net worth limitations (i.e. you can't have more than $XXXX.XX and still qualify). So if someone has a whole life policy with a cash surrender value of, say, $40,000 and a death benefit of $70,000, then they need to surrender the policy in order to spend-down/do planning. Or maybe the person just bought too much insurance and needs the liquidity to move into an assisted living facility or hire home care. They key point to remember is that the policy owner must be in poor health. You don't want to buy a policy from someone that is going to live for another 10 years.

[Giacomo Casanova]

I would invest firstly in cryptocurrencies and companies related to the blockchain business now, considered the prices going down a lot and the market being undervalued. To balance the risks of the high volatility, also I would include gold as a perfect asset to hedge.

[Obermarschall]

The only place where real estate was never down, even during the last recession, was here in Luxembourg. So you might try it...

[bgbusiness]

Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

[MrLemon]

The only investment that's worth a damn is bitcoin (or other top cryptos).

Everything else is a waste -- might as well be in cash.

[samifon]

(04-10-2019 07:08 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

These companies have consistently lost money and already have huge market caps. What makes you think that these are good investments?

[ChicagoFire]

(04-10-2019 07:08 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

Why would you advocate for Tesla when Elon Musk has underperformed year after year? Objectively speaking Musk is a living joke. The only thing I respect about the man is his positive and zero fucks attitude.

Crypto IMO is a libertarian's wet dream where government crashes and the 1000 or so investors rule the world with their tulip mania inspired money (not happening). FYI I do own crypto and once I go to a lower tax state I will sell or swap it for real assets.

[Lampwick]

(04-10-2019 10:01 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:  

Why would you advocate for Tesla when Elon Musk has underperformed year after year? Objectively speaking Musk is a living joke. The only thing I respect about the man is his positive and zero fucks attitude.

Tesla is the canary in the coal mine. As long as people are willing and able to throw money at a company this stupid, the bull run in the stock market should continue. Once Tesla falls over, watch out.

[bgbusiness]

(04-10-2019 08:33 PM)samifon Wrote:  

(04-10-2019 07:08 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

These companies have consistently lost money and already have huge market caps. What makes you think that these are good investments?

Same thing over and over again. I get this comment a lot and it's super annoying how I have to answer this all the time.

Any business that are relatively new are going to have negative cash flow initially and then eventually the initial investment is going to pay off over the years as the cashflow becomes positive.

This isn't no hard asset like real estate where you need positive cash flow from Day 1. What kind of investing strategy is that? Even in real estate, you have to put 10%~25% of down payment. You LOSE MONEY FIRST.
However, you collect rent and those rents (cash flow) will eventually be more than the initial investment that you have put in...

Do you think guys at Sillicon Valley stop investing in these companies because they all lose money in the first several years?

How do you think companies like Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook become so BIG today? Huge initial investment and HUGE risks were taken.

I am not trying to put you on the spot, but I am not completely sure what your trying to come across. Your ignorance is bleeding through your comments...

Even humans are not able to sustain themselves and are negative ROI until they become adults.
Think of Parents = investors.
Do you think you or I had the ability to make our own income at the age of 1? NO.

Same as companies. Startups/Comapnies are basically a form of an organism just like us. Once there is enough attention and resources invested the first several years, they are able to be self-sustainable and also contribute more to the world. Just like humans turn 18, go to college or whatever and are able to sustain themselves and also have positive impact of life.

At the end of the day, do whatever you want, don't invest in companies that are LOSING money because there are millions of people who disagree with you and THESE companies will continue to raise capital from investors.