To Cut through all the Gloom and Doom Sky is Falling and World is Over Peter Schiff Crash Mania a few inconvenient and informative Positive facts:
My lead Stealth Trading Advisor for my DLT Trading Project (Extremely Wealthy and Successful Active Director of Global Trading for a worldwide institution). Trades Broad Indicies and Commodities WorldWide:
S&P Chart we created 6 months or so ago (Updated Today) about the S&P 40 Year SuperCycle - The Market is doing What it is Supposed to Do - Notice Green SuperCycle wave 5 Transition up and Targets - just in time for Trump's Reelection!
Note how the Powerful 200 Weekly Moving Average is about to run right through the Major SubWave 3 target (Purple) A Strong Confirmation that MW3 will Bounce and Retest MW4 then Running down to Complete Major SubWave 5 and SuperCycle Wave 4...
Most recent 3 Weeks Classic Example of an impulsive 3rd Wave Down - best three weeks of the year with 50 to 100 point swings per day all predictable Intraday and Major Wave Turns - Puts/Shorts in the S&P SPY, SPXW Options and ESH2019 (ES1! continual chart) are accelerating and throwing off tremendous Short Term Profits - I have cashed in average 30% to 80% gains in the past 5 days. See SPXW Matrix following the 40 Year S&P SuperCycle and Major Wave Sub-Cycles Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/Ro...5-Targets/
Hint Next SuperCycle Wave 1= .618 of 5 Target is 2950/3000 a triple top and likely to be shorted as low as 1500 before it runs up to Wave 1 = 1.618 of 5 at 3400/3500 - So Volatility over the next several years = maximum trading profitability - Current Daily ATR is 50 points a day and 90 points a Week Average True [Trading] Range.
How do you think Pension Funds are able to survive with 8% PayOut demands in a ZIRP/NIRP Environment - Institutional Returns - See % Gains since Dec 10th:
SPXW PUTs
Symbol LastPrice$ Change$ Change% Qty PriceWhenAdded DateAdded TotalGain$ TotalGain% Value$
SPXW Mar 29 19 $3000 Put455.500.000.00%1218.0312/10/201831,597.00144.92%45,550.00
SPXW Mar 15 19 $2900 Put326.500.000.00%1149.7012/10/201828,630.00191.25%32,650.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2800 Put316.380.000.00%1219.5012/10/201812,460.0056.77%31,638.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2700 Put233.85-10.80 -4.41%1148.1012/10/201810,950.0073.94%23,385.00
SPXW Mar 15 19 $2600 Put168.10-6.90 -3.94%1112.8012/10/20186,770.0060.02%16,810.00
SPXW Mar 15 19 $2500 Put129.26-6.39 -4.71%144.8012/10/20187,950.00177.46%12,926.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2400 Put94.153.553.92%156.0012/10/20183,460.0061.79%9,415.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2300 Put59.803.105.47%139.4112/10/20182,039.0051.74%5,980.00
SPXW Mar 15 19 $2200 Put34.433.2310.35%119.1012/10/20181,533.0080.26%3,443.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2100 Put28.382.389.15%117.6012/10/2018950.0053.98%2,838.00
SPXW Mar 29 19 $2000 Put18.000.000.00%18.3712/10/2018953.00113.86%1,800.00
SPY PUTs
SymbolLastPrice$ Change$ Change% Qty PriceWhenAdded DateAdded TotalGain$ TotalGain% Value$
SPY Mar 29 19 $270 Put27.901.555.88%16.5408/26/20182,136.00326.61%2,790.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $265 Put23.941.406.21%113.8012/10/20181,014.0073.48%2,394.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $260 Put20.041.8610.23%19.5512/11/20181,052.00110.16%2,004.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $250 Put14.410.674.88%16.5012/11/2018787.00121.08%1,441.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $240 Put9.801.1413.16%14.3812/11/2018542.00123.74%980.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $230 Put6.620.182.80%13.3312/14/2018331.0099.40%662.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $220 Put4.410.143.28%12.2012/14/2018225.00102.27%441.00
SPY Jun 28 19 $200 Put3.920.4312.32%11.7208/26/2018220.00127.91%392.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $210 Put2.930.3614.01%11.5712/17/2018138.0087.90%293.00
SPY Mar 29 19 $200 Put2.000.3521.21%10.9412/14/2018106.00112.77%200.00
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2019 Will be the Year of the Stock Snapback. Here are Three HUGE Reasons to Stay in the Game
‘Tis the season to be jolly.
But man, if you’re a trader… it’s been tough.
We’ve seen much more pain than gain lately.
After notching a new high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 11% in the last two months.
The S&P 500 has dropped 12% — it’s second 10%-plus drop of the year.
And the Nasdaq 100 is down an eye-popping 16% from it’s all-time high.
Yikes!
The struggle is real.
But 2018 hasn’t been totally terrible.
Each of the market’s corrections followed rip-roaring rallies.
And here at Dollar Trade Club, we took advantage of the drops to buy stocks on the cheap… and sell into strength.
We booked a 286% gain on Crocs, Inc. (CROX), a 155% winner on Blackstone Group LP (BX), and a 115% profit on our Under Armour, Inc. (UA) position.
I’m not crazy enough to pick a bottom, but I see much more upside than downside for stocks in 2019.
Now… before you tar and feather me as a permabull that’s devoid of logic…
Here are three HUGE reasons to stay in the game next year…
Rally Reason #1 – Stocks are CHEAP
If I had a dime for every time someone has said stocks are overvalued this year, I’d be loaded!
But earnings growth over the last two years has more than justified higher stock multiples.
Analysts have cut earnings forecasts in 2019 over trade concerns and waning tax stimulus. But the S&P still trades at just 14.7 times forward earnings after last week’s rout.
Talk about cheap…
That’s below the index’s five-year average, and right around its 10-year average.
Better still, some big brand-name stocks are trading at incredible discounts…
Netflix Inc. (NFLX), one of the market’s most consistent growth stocks, is trading at 95.6 times trailing earnings. Of course, that’s well above the S&P… but the stock has delivered double-digit earnings growth in each of the last ten years.
This stock commands a premium valuation.
But…
After the market’s recent rout, the stock trades at its lowest PE multiple since 2015. And the ratio is down 77% from its peak in 2016 at 416.
Twitter Inc. (TWTR) — a company that just became profitable in 2018 — trades at 26.6 trailing twelve-month earnings. And its PE has fallen 75% from its high on the year (46.8).
The tech company Wall Street loves to hate, Apple Inc. (APPL), is trading at its lowest PE valuation (13.9) since early 2017. That’s even after analysts slashed earnings estimates on fears of slowing iPhone sales.
I know it’s hard to even think about buying stocks after the sea of red in November, but volatility equals opportunity.
The sharp selloffs are giving you the chance to buy stocks at multi-year discounts — putting risk to reward squarely in YOUR favor.
But don’t expect the sale on stocks to last long.
Analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings growth of anywhere from 10% to 20%.
To be sure, it’s a slowdown from 2018.
But double-digit earnings growth almost ten years into an economic expansion is still pretty damn good.
So take advantage of the sale in stocks while you can.
Reason #2 – The US Economy Is STRONG
You know…
Some of my analyst colleagues on TV are losing their minds talking up a truly crazy idea…
That is, we’re headed for a recession in 2019.
Give me a break!
Yes, growth is likely to slow moving forward. But it’s not going to fall off a cliff.
This year, we could easily see 4% real gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth. Sure, a big old tax cut helped.
But next year, Federal Reserve economists are forecasting 2.5% GDP growth next year. That’s a lower clip than 2018, but it’s still well above the ten-year average (1.6%).
Unemployment is sitting at less than 4% — and it could even go lower in 2019.
And inflation has NOT exploded like many market bears said it would.
So expect the Fed to significantly slow down the pace of its interest rate hikes.
According to CME’s FedWatch, fed fund futures are pricing just a single interest rate rise in 2019.
Put simply, expect the slowdown in rate hikes to fuel a rally in stocks.
Reason #3 – There are (Still) No Better Alternatives
As I write, the S&P 500 is down 2.7% on the year.
But factoring in already-reduced earnings expectations, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to rise 17% in 2019, according to FactSet.
And I think the broad market barometer can soar even higher than that. (More on that later this week.)
When you look at the alternatives, you’ll quickly see why stocks are still the place to be…
The US ten-year treasury — the market’s most popular risk-free instrument — is currently yielding a mere 2.9%. On a total return basis, the note’s investors have enjoyed a negative 1.6% for their troubles.
You can hide your money in treasuries, but you won’t be retiring early on those returns.
What about cash, you might ask?
Pitiful!
The three-month LIBOR (a measure of short-term bank interest rates) has risen 77% over the last year, it’s still just a pathetic 2.8%.
Cash has outperformed during the market’s recent fall, and may continue to do so for a bit.
But with another year of big growth expected in corporate America next year… that outperformance is not bound to last.
In addition, the flight of capital back into stocks in 2019 could be a life-changing event for the brave investors that buy the dip here.
Here’s the bottom line…
If you’re looking for maximum return on your hard-earned capital, stocks are where you want to be in 2019.
And right now, you’re staring at one of the best buying opportunities you’ll get over the next twelve months.
Seize your moment.
Merry Christmas and Ring in the KaChing for a Happy and Prosperous New Year!
NOTE: These discussions and any associated thread posts are not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major 40 Year S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.