[thoughtgypsy]

The following post is speculation based off of observations of developments in global finance and politics over the past couple decades, and foreshadowing from major geopolitical figures. I do not mean to fearmonger, and merely write this for others to consider and brainstorm how it might affect their future should it come about. If there is already a thread that touches on this, feel free to close or merge this, though I did not see the specific topic from a forum search.

The coming Global Police State

We are well on our way in moving towards a globalized society where individual freedom and privacy are rapidly becoming distant memories. As time goes on, I believe this environment will grow increasingly totalitarian, freedoms will increasingly disappear, and the phenomenon will spread over most of the world. Likely it will take many years to fully achieve (as is necessary to boil a frog), but signs point to this becoming a reality in the near future.

A brief history of recent times

Before we get to the near future, I think it's important to briefly go over our recent past and how we've arrived at the present state. In the Western world, governments lacked a political adversary with the fall of the Soviet Union.

An adversary is critical for the enacting the hegelian dialectic in geopolitics. To briefly explain this, the hegelian dialectic is the process of creating a desired solution through an artificial conflict. By creating an enemy, governments can justify greater centralization of power, the removal of personal freedoms, and the murder of millions to advance political goals. In an environment where no enemy exists, populations would be much more resistant to the removal of personal freedoms and extrajudicial powers.

9/11 was the catalyst for the deep state to remove personal freedoms, and expand their mass surveillance programs in the US. In Europe, I believe the human trafficking of millions of refugees from MENA (Middle east and North Africa) is a forerunner for false flags and the justification of Europe's counterpart in the "war on terror" and their version of the patriot act.

The "war on terror" created the groundwork for the building up of the surveillance and security apparatus is the new normal in today's society. Some commentators have regarded it as a "turnkey totalitarian state", in that we have the full technical capability of enacting a totalitarian regime, but as of yet, have not rolled it out fully. Others have noted the construction of "FEMA camps", and the DHS purchasing billions of rounds of hollow point ammunition. Legislation such as the 2009 NDAA allow for the kidnapping and detention of US citizens without trial. Based on what our ruling regimes are capable of, it's hard to deny that we already live in a totalitarian police state, albeit one which is relatively peaceful and prosperous.

Before totalitarian powers can be fully rolled out, the ruling class may find it more effective to create a worldwide crisis that would force most of the world's population into a state of desperation. People who are facing being cut off from all means of providing for their families, or placed in a state of intense starvation are more desperate and willing to accept loss of freedom in return for survival and comfort. This can be seen through history from the rise of communism in Eastern Europe and China.

Priming the Global Financial Implosion

The global financial crisis, and perhaps even before that, the job market was hollowed out. Availability of full time jobs quickly shrunk, a permanent underclass reliant on government hand outs and disability payments was fostered, and the working and middle classes were squeezed further and further out of options for employment. The increase in fixed costs such as rent payments and enacting health insurance as mandatory have quickened the destruction of wealth among the middle classes.

On the corporate front, many of the large companies have taken on trillions of dollars of debt to finance share buybacks in order for executives to grant themselves higher bonuses. This is good for executives and to make their stock valuations appear more attractive, but the debt has not gone towards productive investment like increased hiring of full time employees or investment in productive assets. Many of these companies are now fully dependent on the cost of debt to remain near record lows, and any rise in debt yields will force them into bankruptcy.

On the government front, most countries across the globe have long crossed the point of no return when it comes to national debt and the ability to support it. Over the past decade, the world's most unprecedented campaign of debt creation has been conducted on a global scale, pushing interest rates across the globe near 0% levels, sometimes even in the negative. This has created a bubble in everything, increased the cost of living, and allowed the fallout of extremely risky investments to be pushed further down the road.

When the next global financial hits, and I think it will be done intentionally, and soon, it will take the entire global economy with it. Governments and corporations will be completely bankrupt, and people will be facing mass unemployment on a scale never before seen. It will require a complete restructuring of the entire global financial system. This is the crisis that will be created in order to bring about a new cashless global financial currency which will be the centerpiece of the global totalitarian state. From the ashes of this crisis rise the phoenix of a new currency, which will be the instrument of global control.

The Financial shift to China

While the western economy has been hollowed out, the global financial pole has shifted to China. Ever since the 70s, prominent geopolitical actors such as the trilaterals have admired China's system of government as an ideal future state. Earlier in the first decade of the new millenium, these same actors (see Soros' interview on China from 2009) have announced their faith in China as the future global powerhouse.

In the past decade, Russia and China have been importing hundreds of tons of gold every year while the west has been selling. It's a possibility that the paper gold price has been suppressed to facilitate this process. This gold could be useful in a post crash scenario if a country desired to put up gold as collateral to keep their debt financing costs down and prop up their currency.

China was recently included in the IMF's SDR basket of currencies a few years back. In 2014, they surpassed the US as the world's largest economy (look at the GNP figures instead of the GDP). With the creation of the AIIB and the massive infrastructure investment push through the one belt, one road initiative, China has solidified itself as the world's most important country for global trade. Yuan swap facilities have been set up across the globe in recent years, providing the infrastructure needed to allow the Yuan to become the basis for the next global reserve currency. With the introduction of the Petroyuan a few weeks back, countries who are not energy independent will begin to offload their dollars and begin to trade increasingly in yuan. The yuan will be used to trade for China's exports (such as rare earth materials), as well as oil (through the petroyuan).

The US will retain some degree of resilience through it's agricultural carrying capacity, geographic isolation, and fading military might, but it will be increasingly marginalized in global trade. Increasing energy independence and growing domestic problems will force the US to become more isolated. The next generation of anti ship missiles and long range fighters may make the US wary of committing its carrier fleets to the South China Sea. China's infrastructure investing, manufacturing might, currency stability, and global trade dominance mean it will become the pole of the future global economy.

A glimpse into the Future police state society

As China is destined to become the next unipolar world power, the ruling class have already begun to roll out the totalitarian infrastructure on a trial basis there. Look for these tools of social control to become increasingly expanded across the globe during times of crisis. Consider how they control society in the Uigher region, and how that could be expanded to control society on a wider scale. Weapons as simple as knives will become tightly controlled, and holding political or religious beliefs that are against the political goals of the ruling party may prevent someone from holding employment and being able to feed their families.

They are also rolling out a "social credit system". This system punishes people who commit thought crime, and encourages people who believe what the state wants. Those who commit acts or hold beliefs against the state will find themselves closed off from credit, but also may be prevented from traveling in trains and air planes. As times become more desperate, you can see how this system can be used to control the beliefs and actions of people. If you want access to jobs or the ability to buy food, you must hold the correct beliefs. If you hold the wrong beliefs, you can find yourself cut off from your bank account and from the ability to buy and sell.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-soc...ned-2018-4

If rolled out on a global scale, it's easy to see how a combined system of mass surveillance and tight control of access to a cashless, globalized financial system could be used as a method of full spectrum dominance of the populace. Threatening people with starvation and rewarding people with greater access to luxuries would provide an all encompassing system of fear and incentive towards rigidly following the official narrative without question. Making such a global financial system cashless would prevent people from surviving and doing business outside of the system, and making it the only legal global currency would prevent the possibility of using any alternative financial systems.

Predicted Timeline of Events

These are the order of events I'd look for to see if this hypothesis holds any water. I'm not confident enough on when the specific timeline in years would be, since I think the actors who create these events create developments based on certain changeable conditions, so a specific time frame may not be as useful as looking for specific events.

Global Financial Crisis (2018 or later)
With a decade of zero interest rates and the world's largest expansion of debt in history, the global economy is ripe for an implosion. This cycle has seen debt go into nearly every sector of the global economy, and almost everything is in a bubble. The next global crisis will create an unprecedented global recession.

Global economic desperation
The next crisis will create enormous economic desperation across the globe. Even though the global economy never recovered from 2008, it will further implode. Companies and governments will go bankrupt, more people will be laid off, services will contract or disappear. There will be riots and potentially military conflicts or civil wars. It will be the justification for the creation of a restructuring of the global financial system and will wash away the debts from the previous world order.

IMF issues SDRs to stabilize the global system
The IMF will issue trillions in SDRs (Sovereign Drawing Rights, an existing pseudo global currency) to prop up the global economy. This will be the basis of the future global currency, and global financial centers and the SDR will increasingly be based off the yuan, possibly backed by gold.

The global economy increasingly shifts to China
China will solidify itself as the pole of the global economy, and increasingly dictate diplomacy based on their political interests.

Countries begin to emulate China and implement global trade infrastructure
China will be held up as the example of a country which successfully navigated the global crisis, and this will be used to justify the rolling out of police state infrastructure in the rest of the world. It may become a conditional requirement China demands of potential trade partners.

What you Can do
This doesn't sound like a great time for humanity, and ultimately, I think such a totalitarian system will fail, as it always does. However, were it to come to fruition, it will still be a difficult time to survive for men yearning to be free. While it may be impossible to completely escape it, the following is what I believe may make the experience more tolerable.

• Give yourself plausible deniability: Understand the rhetoric and criteria used by the official narrative to suss out thought criminals, and think about how to give yourself ammo should you be accused of political heresy. Example: In 5 years, there's a political backlash against Trump voters, the voting record becomes public and former voters face social backlash. You could argue you voted for him to force social awareness of the problems in society, when voting for Hillary would have allowed us to continue to ignore them, etc. Even if you're not sincere about it, you could use it as a chance to troll people and force them into a situation of doublethink and thought crime, discouraging their involvement with you.
• Anticipate future events, and take steps to maneuver through them: Look at where society is going, and always try to be ahead of the game rather than reactive. Example: You see that society is going towards a surveillance state that could possibly used against us to persecute us based on political affiliation in the near future. Instead of deleting your facebook, you post random articles that are either politically benign or in tune with the official narrative. i.e. "10 ways to go green this spring"
• Create alternative plans: If you have the resources or skills, consider other locales or regions. Even if this may become a global phenomena, certain countries and regions may be slower to implement all the aspects of them due to infrastructure, efficiency, and corruption.
• Become as self sufficient as possible: Should you ever reach the event where you're cut off from a globalized system of trade, or economically marginalized as a result of your beliefs, it helps to be self sufficient to decrease the leverage over you. Gain access to sources of fresh water, and a means of sustenance. Maybe you don't need to go all out prepper, but even a little bit could help. Remember the pareto principle, the most effective 10% of effort can often give you 90% of the results. If you have a house, that might mean simply having a rain water catchment and filtration system, and a modest garden of staples.
• Form small, tight communities: On the last point, even better if you're in a small community that is self sufficient. You can provide a support structure for each other, and trade in certain goods which one or the other might not have. It will be harder to turn people against each other in a community where people rely on each other
  

Again, this is just speculation, but a possible dystopian future that may come about on the horizon. Take care of yourselves, and good luck to us.

[Paracelsus]

Small expansion on elements of this very good article.

Quote:

In the past decade, Russia and China have been importing hundreds of tons of gold every year while the west has been selling. It's a possibility that the paper gold price has been suppressed to facilitate this process. This gold could be useful in a post crash scenario if a country desired to put up gold as collateral to keep their debt financing costs down and prop up their currency.

The means by which this generally comes about is hyperinflation - what is currently being suffered by Venezuela and by Zimbabwe in the past. In essence, government always runs out of money to pay its debts. When that happens, the response of governments throughout history has always been to print enough money to pay them - whether the method is by debasing the existing currency (Constantine), outright printing cash (Weimar Republic), or buying back bonds with money that simply does not exist (the US, also known as Quantitative Easing).

The result is simple: with a massive oversupply of currency, the value of that currency drops, precipitously. The US has had it happen twice: in the Revolutionary War (ever heard the phrase 'Not worth a Continental'? It dates back to the US's first currency, which became badly inflated during the war) and in the Civil War, as the South began to run out of money. But as Weimar Republic Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela show us, it doesn't take a war for it to come. All it takes is for an economy that is fragile in the Taleb sense of the word to suffer a sudden change in circumstances. In this case, the bondholders of the world saying en masse that they don't want to buy any more US Treasury bonds because they don't believe the US will ever pay off those bonds.

When hyperinflation occurs, understand that not only is your money worthless, but you cannot get credit either - mainly because nobody can work out what the correct rate of interest on a loan should be. And hyperinflation disproportionately smashes the middle class of a country - the poor are used to playing on Survival Mode, and the rich have airplanes and passports.

When this happens, the way people survive is by reverting to a different form of currency that people trust. Under hyperinflation, that currency is often small consumer goods: toilet rolls, tampons, condoms, that sort of thing. Consider the way cigarettes are used as a currency in a prison.

Gold is only useful in holding the value of very large sums of money, mostly because in a crisis you can't easily break it up to pay small sums; it's essentially a freezer of value. Those who stockpile small consumer goods tend to do better in hyperinflation because they can barter easier - and barter is often what allows you to survive as well. Barter clubs in Argentina kept people from starving when they had one of their semi-regular economic blowups and hyperinflationary episodes.

Surviving hyperinflationary conditions -- because they simply cannot be sustained past a certain point, people just stop using the government's money, which means it literally runs out of cash -- need not necessarily involve a SHTF bugout plan and a cabin in the Rockies. It may be enough to have a stockpile small consumer goods, similar to the Mormons whose religious beliefs require that they have a stockpile of a year's food (and who will therefore either do very well or be vilified by the powers that be when the big H hits.) For more information on the whole concept, look up a book by John T. Reed called Surviving Hyperinflation and Depression.

[kamoz]

So, curious me decides to look up that Economist cover with the Phoenix on it. There was an accompanying article in that edition of the Economist, which I found on zerohedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-0...rency-2018

Quote:

THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let’s say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favoured by companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than today’s national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century.

...

As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades. Preparing the way for the phoenix will mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones. It will mean allowing and then actively promoting the private-sector use of an international money alongside existing national monies. That would let people vote with their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union. The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power.

…

The alternative – to preserve policymaking autonomy- would involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade and capital flows. This course offers governments a splendid time. They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices. It is a growth-crippling prospect. Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and welcome it when it comes.

Then I saw that article was published on January 9, 1988.

And then I remembered the Dow dropped 666 points back in February.

Fuck.

[speculator]

That Phoenix article is quite popular among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. I think people are almost ready for the transition. India was a testing ground to abolish cash. However, the real scary stuff is the mind reading tech they are working on at MIT:

When this shit goes mainstream, you can't hide your wrongthink no matter how many random articles you post on Facebook or Twitter. Meanwhile, you can check Facebook's political categorization of your profile by going to Settings>Ads>Your Information>Your Categories.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

< Yeah - the timeline starting with 2018 is too soon.

The rest is more or less what is likely to happen. Though a total collapse won't happen, because you can hardly control that.

But big financial crisis will happen - bail-in regulations that will confiscate your savings are already in place in most Western countries. Hyperinflation is actually the legacy of a failed state. In the modern world this would be only a short period unless you are a fucked-up idiotic system like Venezuela.

Big global unemployed classes will be part of our world either way and big depressions will trigger global currencies for sure.

[thoughtgypsy]

(04-11-2018 04:46 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

< Yeah - the timeline starting with 2018 is too soon.

I put 2018+ to suggest it can happen any time from this year into the future, starting with a financial crash. The rest I expect to come in the years or decades after that, likely not in this decade. It may be too early, but who knows. With the "trade wars" beginning, the introduction of the petroyuan, and fed rate increases, it's still a possibility.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

The debt ratio can stomach far more than the current levels. Even Japan survives with 250% debt to GDP. The US could even authorize the Fed to buy the bonds themselves or pay the interest with further debt. In fact the US Fed has done so in the recent past.

Don't take me wrong - a global currency will happen and it will likely be gold-backed which is frankly a total disaster. But that will come later. If a collapse happens in the next decades, then the Western countries, EE would just splinter off and do their own thing. Part of Europe would become super-nationalistic and the same would go for Japan, Korea.

A lot more has to happen before the big step. I expect more the further unification into the 3 trading blocks - Americas, Europe, Asia. Maybe Africa getting ever more under the dominion of China, because Africa won't get their shit together in in the next centuries on their own.

The massive unemployment coming will be mostly derived from outsourcing and automation (including AI close software for low-end white collar work like legal professions, call center etc.)

The majority of the people will become unemployed in the next decades and that is why they push the notion of basic income (which will come with plenty of forced commands like having to be totally PC, taking your monthly vaccines, taking the SSRI meds if ordered to do so etc.)

Collecting guns, ammo and stockpiles is all good and well for short-term emergencies, but I don't expect those to last for long. The globalists are absolute control freaks and they are far smarter and more savvy than the moronic leaders of Venezuela or Zimbabwe.

The only and best way is to advance upwards in terms of social/financial status. That way you can afford your self-sufficient farm even when the full Agenda 21 gets rolled out in 2050. Also some countries and places will be affected less by chaos and you can move there in advance.

[Paracelsus]

Only note I'd say is this: Venezuela is going to be an important one to watch, because the standard hyperinflationary cycle isn't going to play out there. Most hyperinflation results in the quick collapse of the currency and adoption of an alternative that people trust because nobody will use the government's currency. But in Venezuela you have a horror triptych in that Maduro controls the printing press, the ports, and -- most significantly -- the food supply, because he nationalised Venezuela's agricultural industries and then ran them into the ground. The military is mainly in control of selling food, and they're doing better than selling drugs in that regard. Those sets of factors mean hyperinflation there could last at least as long as Maduro maintains control over the military. I suspect a number of people are watching how he fares very, very carefully.

[gework]

(04-11-2018 03:59 AM)speculator Wrote:  

He had the documents.

[debeguiled]

I am going to stockpile Neccos.



Not only are these tasty treats good for trade when the SHTF, but because the company that makes them is now going out of business, and also because these babies basically never go bad, they will be ripe, post EMP to become the best holder of value as a currency for the future.

Daily Mail Says the Hoarding has Begun

Quote:

The county's oldest candy company might be going out of business - and the news has sent sweet lovers in the Northeast into a panic.

These candies, and remember the all chocolate rolls as well as Valentine heart candy will be affected too, already have a long history of use as a barter item in rough conditions.





Dry Wall Tasting Candy is History says WSJ

Quote:

With a suspiciously long shelf life, the nearly indestructible Necco wafers were used by Union soldiers during the Civil War and American GIs in World War II.

In 1913, Arctic explorer Donald MacMillan took the endurable wafers for nutrition and to hand out to Inuit children, according to the company. They proved so suitable to the climate that Admiral Richard Byrd took 2.5 tons of them on his two-year exploration of the South Pole in the 1930s.

Having these to trade in a pinch could save you from a post apocalyptic craft hobbyist who has snapped:

Quote:

The Necco supply chain extends to crafts, where gingerbread-house builders may be forced to seek new roofing and siding materials for their candy-covered homes. Robin Albert, who runs the Portsmouth Historical Society’s Annual Gingerbread House Contest in Portsmouth, N.H., said some craft makers will be disappointed. The wafers, she says, really added some “pizazz.”

This may be my last communication before the Post Necco Era.

Double down on these babies.

The original diversity.

[thoughtgypsy]

(04-11-2018 07:40 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

The debt ratio can stomach far more than the current levels. Even Japan survives with 250% debt to GDP. The US could even authorize the Fed to buy the bonds themselves or pay the interest with further debt. In fact the US Fed has done so in the recent past.

This is true, but I think it's also important to understand the structure of the debt, the GDP breakdown by country, and the expectations of future growth or lack-thereof when determining what levels of debt to GDP are workable.

In Japan, most of the debt is held internally. The BOJ is now the top holder of public debt, followed by insurers and domestic banks. Overseas investors account for less than 10% of the debt, so there is more room for the government's domestic policy to control the lending behavior of domestic institutions and as a result, interest rates. Japan also has one of the highest social trust ratings in the world, and is a fairly cohesive nation when it comes to acting in the perceived good of society.

Compare this to Greece, which underwent a default at 180% of GDP.



This could be treated as a unique situation given that it's a much smaller economy, and it's of particular complexity due to the EU having a common currency with no centralized taxing and spending authority. But either way, it shows how quickly a government can be considered risky to creditors and a currency default can take place in a modern European nation. Cyprus is another recent example of a member EU country which was bailed in with the funds of private citizens.

Of course, the debt situation in the US is not as bad as Greece, though I'd argue it's not as "healthy" as Japan. Most of the US debt is held domestically, though the US is much more politically divided compared to Japan. Certain political groups will not want to support social security, others will not want to support civil service retirement, others huge military budgets.

The political trend has been to continue expanding the debt in order to buy votes. Social security, medicare D for older folks; Military spending for those employed in the military industrial complex, welfare for the underclass. As the debt level increases and the ability to service the debt becomes untenable, these factions will be forced to fight over each other for a piece of what's left in the pie, which is much more difficult in an environment with little social cohesion. It's also particularly bad in an environment when unfunded liabilities are in the region of hundreds of trillions of dollars, much larger than the entire globe's GDP.

Good article on the future direction of US national debt:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-2...treasuries

The debt to GDP figure will also skyrocket as the artificially inflated portions of GDP implode during a global recession. The fixed debt costs will continue to rise, while the GDP shrinks, as it's largely based around the FIRE economy (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate), which has been propped up due to the asset inflation of the last decade.

Other Debt Implications
I suppose that as long as a country is able to service it's debt, it's less of an issue so long as interest rates remain low. However, there's other ways to look at national debt levels in order to understand their impact on each nation.

One way is to consider how they affect trade flows. If a country with a high debt to GDP expects to trade debt for tangible finished goods, the country on the other side of the trade might be reticent to do so unless there's a large interest rate involved. More likely, countries with shaky financial environments will be forced to trade tangible goods for other tangible goods, such as what's being done with Venezuela. The US has escaped this scenario because of the USD being the current reserve currency, and the petrodollar system. Right now, the petrodollar system is slowly unwinding and the yuan is set to take it's place, which will make USD based debt less of a viable option for future trade. Imports and the cost of living will likely go higher in the US in the coming decades.

One thing which will continue to prop up the US is that it has some of the most productive farmland in the world, though it's hard to say how benign the motives are of those who control it. Independent farmers make an increasingly small share of all the farmers in the US, and it continues its trend with the increased pricing of land due to asset inflation, and estate tax law which makes passing on land no longer a viable option for generations of farming families. In post-soviet Russia, many farmers ended up selling their assets to foreign oligarchs, and these assets were not used to further the national or geopolitical interests of the country or its people.

Over the past decade, central banks around the globe have been soaking up all the toxic debt and continue to create trillions more in debt that gets piled into assets well above their priced-in risk. As non-performing loans continue to rise, it will be more difficult to paper over the systemic problems, and additional debt will prove of little viability in an environment already flooded with cheap debt. While overindebted nations may be able to stay afloat in the current regime of zero interest rates and trillions of cheap credit, I don't see it remaining the status quot when another global crash hits, and when central banks are out of tools.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

< Look - Greece is a specific situation, where most of the debt rise was created by foreign parties. Greece is an example of what happens to a small country that gives away their monetary policy to another entity - this time a much bigger malicious entity like the EU. If Japan had given over their monetary policy to China, then they would be in deep shit so deep that they would not see any future except in a collective seppuku.

If Greece still had their own currency, then they would have been fine. They would have simply devalued their currency, made some minor concessions, boosted tourism via cheaper rates, had some price rises in imported goods, but the people would still be better off. 70% of the rise in debt was due to suddenly interest rates on their obligations going up to 40% per year. No country can pay that. The US technically can never go broke. At best it will just create hyperinflation until the currency is rebooted anew.

US debt is held by China, but China cannot afford to let the US go under or it will be pulled along - this will remain true for the next 2 decades at least. After that China may be rich enough to stomach a US bankruptcy.

Try to have a second house in Shanghai by then.

[debeguiled]

My Necco strategy is falling flat in real life too. One guy I tried to explain it to just lowered his head to his hands and sat there not moving.

Another left, and came back demanding that I take a tin of Altoids from him, saying over and over, "It's my life savings, just take it."

A prophet in his ownz land.

[Kid Twist]

Isn't the closer "desperate" reality [in the USA] particular states or municipalities that are clearly in much bigger trouble than an entity like the Federal Government because they can't QE or just don't have the same situation/scale? States like California, New York, Illinois ... and cities therein?

Next decade seems to be the right time for a perfect storm of boomers entering old age, pension problems, risk probability of debt, less disposable income and jobs for younger "consumers", etc.

[Paracelsus]

(04-12-2018 08:29 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  

Isn't the closer "desperate" reality [in the USA] particular states or municipalities that are clearly in much bigger trouble than an entity like the Federal Government because they can't QE or just don't have the same situation/scale? States like California, New York, Illinois ... and cities therein?

Yep, which is why you should be kind of worried about these types of brain fart bills proposing to give the Federal government an agency to bail out pension funds.

Because you then generate what they started calling moral hazard back in 2009 and what is more accurately termed Talebian transfer of fragility - upward, to the Federal government's budget rather than that of the states.

[kamoz]

Bill Gates thinks a coming disease could kill 30 million people within 6 months — and says we should prepare for it as we do for war

Quote:

If there's one thing that we know from history, it's that a deadly new disease will arise and spread around the globe.

That could happen easily within the next decade. And as Bill Gates told listeners on Friday at a discussion about epidemics hosted by the Massachusetts Medical Society and the New England Journal of Medicine, we're not ready.

Gates acknowledged that he's usually the optimist in the room, reminding people that we're lifting children out of poverty around the globe and getting better at eliminating diseases like polio and malaria.

But "there's one area though where the world isn't making much progress," Gates said, "and that's pandemic preparedness."

The likelihood that such a disease will appear continues to rise. New pathogens emerge all the time as the world population increases and humanity encroaches on wild environments. It's becoming easier and easier for individual people or small groups to create weaponized diseases that could spread like wildfire around the globe.

According to Gates, a small non-state actor could build an even deadlier form of smallpox in a lab.

And in our interconnected world, people are always hopping on planes, crossing from cities on one continent to those on another in a matter of hours.

Gates presented a simulation by the Institute for Disease Modeling that found that a new flu like the one that killed 50 million people in the 1918 pandemic would now most likely kill 30 million people within six months.

And the disease that next takes us by surprise is likely to be one we see for the first time at the start of an outbreak, like what happened recently with SARS and MERS viruses.

If you were to tell the world's governments that weapons that could kill 30 million people were under construction right now, there'd be a sense of urgency about preparing for the threat, Gates said.

"In the case of biological threats, that sense of urgency is lacking," he said. "The world needs to prepare for pandemics in the same serious way it prepares for war."

Stopping the next pandemic

The one time the military tried a sort of simulated war game against a smallpox pandemic, the final score was "smallpox one, humanity zero," Gates said.

But he reiterated that he's an optimist, saying he thinks we could better prepare for the next viral or bacterial threat.

In some ways, we're better prepared now than we were for previous pandemics. We have antiviral drugs that can in many cases do at least something to improve survival rates. We have antibiotics that can treat secondary infections like pneumonia associated with the flu.

We're also getting closer to a universal flu vaccine; Gates announced on Friday that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation would offer $12 million in grants to encourage its development.

And we're getting better at rapid diagnosis too — which is essential, as the first step toward fighting a new disease is quarantine. Just this week, a new research paper in the journal Science touted the development of a way to use the gene-editing technology Crispr to rapidly detect diseases and identify them using the same sort of paper strip used in a home pregnancy test.

But we're not yet good enough at rapidly identifying the threat from a disease and coordinating a response, as the global reaction to the latest Ebola epidemic showed.

There needs to be better communication between militaries and governments to help coordinate responses, Gates said. And he thinks governments need ways to quickly enlist the help of the private sector when it comes to developing technology and tools to fight an emerging deadly disease.

Melinda Gates recently said that the threat of a global pandemic, whether it emerges naturally or is engineered, was perhaps the biggest risk to humanity.

"Think of the number of people who leave New York City every day and go all over the world — we're an interconnected world," she said.

Those connections make us all vulnerable.

Alright Zel, what are they cooking in their labs and how long do we have?

[brick tamland]

^ Depopulation.
They are subtle about it. 30 million casualties > THEIR vaccine must be taken by millions of commoners > vaccine causes reduced fertility levels and/or reduced life spans (people don't necessarily have to die like flies. That would be too obvious).

[Matsufubu]

I wonder if it will be called the Gray Death?

If so, I have several barrels of Ambrosia to sell to you.

[redpillage]

(04-29-2018 08:30 PM)brick tamland Wrote:  

^ Depopulation.
They are subtle about it. 30 million casualties > THEIR vaccine must be taken by millions of commoners > vaccine causes reduced fertility levels and/or reduced life spans (people don't necessarily have to die like flies. That would be too obvious).

Add abortions to that list. In Germany alone I think they are aborting about one out of 5 pregnancies:



Do the math over time. I think it's on average around 200,000 abortions since the early 70s. Germany basically has dumped 9 Million children over the past 45 years. My parents broke up one year after I was born and that was in the late 60s (yes, I'm old - don't rub it in). But I'm willing to bet good money that I would have been aborted just five to ten years later, so I lucked out. Many other fetuses weren't that lucky.

I can only guess how many children we have lost over the entire West in the past half century. Must come close to 100 Million children. It's a tragedy and over 90% of those abortions were due to lifestyle choices, if the data on that German site I pulled that chart from is any indication.

[kamoz]

I don't know guys. People like Gates are talking about genetically engineered diseases quite a bit. Y'all know what Alex Jones said about Alien Covenant right? That movie was all about genetic engineering.

And for those of you that haven't seen it (NSFW):

Jus' sayin'

[Simeon_Strangelight]

(04-29-2018 01:33 PM)kamoz Wrote:  

Bill Gates thinks a coming disease could kill 30 million people within 6 months — and says we should prepare for it as we do for war


Alright Zel, what are they cooking in their labs and how long do we have?

Sorry - after having studied large so-called pandemics like the old smallpox, Spanish flu and other such idiocies I conclude that most of it is based on misinformation, has utterly different causes and also very different solutions.

I really have to put up my datasheet and stop explaining myself.

Be it as it may - the old diseases of smallpox, diphtheria, scarlet fever - they all disappeared without vaccinations. The main aspects were clean water, nutrient-dense food all year long, availability of heated clean living quarters as well as basic understanding of sanity. In addition a lot of the mortality numbers were increased by inadequate care for pregnant women and small children. Drinking and underfed women will die more often during childbirth and they will give birth to weak and sickly children.

Most historic numbers of "killer viruses" are utterly overblown. The same goes for rather recent diseases like Polio which was caused by DDT pesticides as well as the Spanish Flu which was strangely enough caused by WWI mass vaccinations (back then it was called the Western diseases because strangely enough the countries which did not line up around the block to get the marvelous WWI vaccines that were left over after the big war - they were all healthy).

I don't doubt that you can create more virulent viruses and bacteria, but based on recent research regarding our immune system it turns out that we don't even need antibodies to fend of those diseases. There are plenty of recent studies published on folk who have genetic conditions of not being able to create antibodies. They still fend off diseases. Whether you have antibodies or not is not even the main determinant of fighting off a virus - it's a multitude of factors.

So I don't believe in a super-killer-virus. I can tell you that we as humans can fend off pretty much all viruses by simply high-dosage vitamin C. If you have enough of that, then you can walk around during the zombie apocalypse. I also doubt that the globalists will release any highly virulent highly dangerous super-virus due to the fact that those things mutate. Of course they know about even better ways to deal with diseases like Rife-machine-styled frequency machines which can kill a virus quickly, but they also know about efficient measures like vitamin mega-doses and other such low-tech approaches. Releasing such a virus is frankly counter-productive even to them. They are not going to share the Rife frequency machine with tens of millions of their necessary serfs and they are certainly not going to give them information on how to combat diseases with orthomolecular medicine either. Also the danger of quick mutation can make them or their immediate serfs vulnerable.

The bigger issue that I see is that they convince the public of some pandemic and then roll out a deadly super-vaccine. They did that very well during the Zika bullshit where the local doctors said that 50% of the affected women don't even have the virus and that there is a strong correlation to pesticides. Almost all the women were exposed to pesticides which created the birth defects - and this is even known. Producers know that this can happen when pregnant women get sprayed.

So in short - the goons that vaccinate you at gunpoint are a bigger threat to your health than any supposed super-virus.

----------------

The most dramatic aspects of the police state will be:

+ diverse non-fitting low-IQ immigration to the West and Islamization - that stuff will only be able to be controlled via millions of combat drones

+ Agenda 21 - the green hell - most of it is not yet unleashed. When they get their way, then most of your disposable income will be used for heating, housing, electricity and mostly vegan posticides-soaked food

We will see whether it comes to that.

[asdfk]

Keep it actionable. Learn how to water fast so you can survive in starvation situations. Travel with high doses of vitamin C, zinc and iodine. Plant roots in a rural community or island that is self-sufficient and does not rely on currency. Learn how to kill in case confrontation is unavoidable. Buy a second passport of a country that is unlikely to be included or recognized by a NWO and intend to be deported to said country when shit hits the fan.

Overall, I'm more worried about the mental health stats of both the US and Western Europe... Where respectively 1 in 5 and 1 in 11 are on anti-depressants and many more are on prescription stimulants or downers and there are no close-knit tribal like communities to speak of. If you are metabolically flexible and have the freedom to travel where you want, focussing on finding such a community might not only serve you well in a potential collapse but also protect your mental health in the outright insane living condition a modern city provides.

Most of the trouble will be contained in cities, densely populated countries or countries with good infrastructure. You can only have meaningful relationships with about 15 people, plus 20 friends... You don't need a huge city at your disposal after you have sewed your wild oats.

[RoastBeefCurtains4Me]

(04-11-2018 11:52 AM)debeguiled Wrote:  

I am going to stockpile Neccos.



Not only are these tasty treats good for trade when the SHTF, but because the company that makes them is now going out of business, and also because these babies basically never go bad, they will be ripe, post EMP to become the best holder of value as a currency for the future.

Daily Mail Says the Hoarding has Begun

Quote:

The county's oldest candy company might be going out of business - and the news has sent sweet lovers in the Northeast into a panic.

These candies, and remember the all chocolate rolls as well as Valentine heart candy will be affected too, already have a long history of use as a barter item in rough conditions.





Dry Wall Tasting Candy is History says WSJ

Quote:

With a suspiciously long shelf life, the nearly indestructible Necco wafers were used by Union soldiers during the Civil War and American GIs in World War II.

In 1913, Arctic explorer Donald MacMillan took the endurable wafers for nutrition and to hand out to Inuit children, according to the company. They proved so suitable to the climate that Admiral Richard Byrd took 2.5 tons of them on his two-year exploration of the South Pole in the 1930s.

Having these to trade in a pinch could save you from a post apocalyptic craft hobbyist who has snapped:

Quote:

The Necco supply chain extends to crafts, where gingerbread-house builders may be forced to seek new roofing and siding materials for their candy-covered homes. Robin Albert, who runs the Portsmouth Historical Society’s Annual Gingerbread House Contest in Portsmouth, N.H., said some craft makers will be disappointed. The wafers, she says, really added some “pizazz.”

This may be my last communication before the Post Necco Era.

Double down on these babies.

The original diversity.

I heard an NPR segment back in the 90's that talked about resurrecting old brand names. Necco was one of the examples they used. Apparently the original manufacturer had gone out of business years earlier. Some new company had bought the trademark, recipe, and manufacturing process info from whoever owned the liquidated assets of the previous company, then started making them again. I remember buying Necco wafers as a child, and when I heard this story I realized I hadn't seen them in many years.

Schlitz beer is like this. It was the #4 US beer at one point, then the company cheapened their product, drove sales volume into the toilet, and went out of business in the 70's or early 80's. Eventually someone bought the name and resurrected the brand. The same thing happened with Hostess just a few years ago, although in that case the resurrection came after only a few months.

Anyway, if Necco is out of business again, I'd say you should put together a team, and resurrect the brand name once again. Push the prepper currency angle as a form of guerilla marketing!

[DJ-Matt]

The sad part of what happened to Hostess is the union goons ran them out of business with huge demands, company basically said "fuck you" and filed for bankruptcy. Then everyone got fired (nice job union assholes) and someone else bought the name and brought it back.

[Foolsgo1d]

We don't need new viruses or a certain group of people to create a strain when we have bio labs with the most dangerous shit known to man locked up at hazard level 4.

Any pandemic estimate of 30 million is pure speculation and is such a hard science to calculate there is no point going into it.

You have communication rates, mortality %, age, gender, healthy/unhealthy/sick.

I still believe that mouse experiment of population collapse is the closest we can use to what could occur in a large enough population.