[ersatz]

I'm going to be paying off my student loans fairly quickly and will be accumulating cash in my savings account pretty fast. I don't want it to just sit there doing shit all, so how should I invest it? Markets (that includes index funds) in general are just insane and look like a good way to loose your shirt to a bunch of wolves. Best thing I can think of is to put it towards a business bankroll and start one or maybe precious metals/jewels but in between those times, what should I do?

[Pete]

Safe? Put it in a 5-year CD for about 2.1% Investing it in a business is almost as risky or riskier than investing it in the markets.

[Gunner]

(09-19-2011 09:54 AM)Pete Wrote:  

Safe? Put it in a 5-year CD for about 2.1% Investing it in a business is almost as risky or riskier than investing it in the markets.

Or more because of liquidity.

[ersatz]

(09-19-2011 09:54 AM)Pete Wrote:  

Safe? Put it in a 5-year CD for about 2.1% Investing it in a business is almost as risky or riskier than investing it in the markets.

The bankroll would be for my own business/startup as a founder, not someone else's.

[mycleverid]

In declining order of safety . . .

Have you consider municipal bonds? Even with the current debt crisis, the vast majority of municipal are nearly risk-free. Just, these days you need to do some research that ten years ago no one would have bothered with.

Life insurance annuities can also be surprising.

Precious metals are cyclical, and frankly the current cycle is dead.

If you have a bent for research, there's good money in using weather to game the oil futures market. We're at the beginning of an upswing in the hurricane cycle. There's money to be made just checking the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico every day between July 1 and October 1.

A CD? Shit, I wouldn't touch that.

[ersatz]

(09-20-2011 11:12 PM)mycleverid Wrote:  

If you have a bent for research, there's good money in using weather to game the oil futures market. We're at the beginning of an upswing in the hurricane cycle. There's money to be made just checking the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico every day between July 1 and October 1.

Did you get that from 'The Social Network' movie?

[Smitty]

(09-18-2011 08:39 PM)ersatz Wrote:  

I'm going to be paying off my student loans fairly quickly and will be accumulating cash in my savings account pretty fast. I don't want it to just sit there doing shit all, so how should I invest it? Markets (that includes index funds) in general are just insane and look like a good way to loose your shirt to a bunch of wolves. Best thing I can think of is to put it towards a business bankroll and start one or maybe precious metals/jewels but in between those times, what should I do?

All depends on the risk you're willing to assume.
I agree with the other poster about putting it in a 5-year CD if you just want your money to grow at a fixed rate with no worries (albeit, very slow rate).
If you want to roll the dice and take a chance, then there are myriad of options. People on here will tell you precious metals, commodities, trading futures, etc but I would ask the question "how?" before jumping in. It's easier to recommend someone time commodity futures with a particular event, but timing the trade is much, much more difficult.
Always easy to recommend the risky (and cool) options with someone else's money.

[mycleverid]

(09-21-2011 01:28 AM)ersatz Wrote:  

Did you get that from 'The Social Network' movie?

Is it mentioned?

My interest in weather prediction for oil futures came from reading an article a while back on the guy in Britain who keeps beating the meteorological service over there in long-term forecasting by using a solar weather model.

He makes serious bank providing 6-24 month weather predictions to companies for everything. Construction, agriculture, weddings, conventions, sporting events, and . . . commodities.

I've wanted to take a stab at the oil futures market using a simplified, more short term strategy with an easier data set to obtain and interpret: surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sadly, I haven't had the chance because a hurricane hasn't produced a meaningful threat to anything between Galveston and Biloxi since the idea hit me!

Once the northern gulf starts seeing surface temperatures in the neighborhood of 87 degrees F, it's a virtual certain a killer hurricane will form. And with so many platforms and refineries along the gulf coast, any medium-term weather pattern than ensures heating in the waters is worth speculating if oil is down.

Bonus points for the big gamble on gasoline futures would be awarded if you could game a killer storm wrecking the shipping canal into Houston and/or taking out several refineries there. Similar opportunities could be found on eastern refineries, but east coast hurricanes are weird and destructive high wind hurricanes rarely occur north of the Gulf Stream.

[ersatz]

(09-23-2011 11:48 PM)mycleverid Wrote:  

(09-21-2011 01:28 AM)ersatz Wrote:  

Did you get that from 'The Social Network' movie?

Is it mentioned?

My interest in weather prediction for oil futures came from reading an article a while back on the guy in Britain who keeps beating the meteorological service over there in long-term forecasting by using a solar weather model.

He makes serious bank providing 6-24 month weather predictions to companies for everything. Construction, agriculture, weddings, conventions, sporting events, and . . . commodities.

I've wanted to take a stab at the oil futures market using a simplified, more short term strategy with an easier data set to obtain and interpret: surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sadly, I haven't had the chance because a hurricane hasn't produced a meaningful threat to anything between Galveston and Biloxi since the idea hit me!

Once the northern gulf starts seeing surface temperatures in the neighborhood of 87 degrees F, it's a virtual certain a killer hurricane will form. And with so many platforms and refineries along the gulf coast, any medium-term weather pattern than ensures heating in the waters is worth speculating if oil is down.

Bonus points for the big gamble on gasoline futures would be awarded if you could game a killer storm wrecking the shipping canal into Houston and/or taking out several refineries there. Similar opportunities could be found on eastern refineries, but east coast hurricanes are weird and destructive high wind hurricanes rarely occur north of the Gulf Stream.

Something similar, go to the 3:00 minute mark of this re-enactment of the opening scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAUs5piuHA