I think this deserves its own thread now that we basically know for a fact shit is coming to a head and something or other is going to pass by March when the grace period for eligible illegals expires.
Personally, I think Trump should have gotten rid of DACA on Day 1 as he promised during the campaign, but it is what it is. From where we stand today, I believe there are only 2 possible outcomes that I could support going forward:
1)No deal is reached and DACA goes the way of an unpleasant dream (heh) you're happy to wake up from. The DACA illegals are subsumed into the larger pool of illegals to which they belong, hopefully to eventually be deported or leave of their own volition but certainly never to get the vote.
2)We get a compromise bill in which the electoral and demographic damage resulting from legalization of DACA illegals is more than offset by advantageous changes to the immigration status-quo elsewhere in the system. I find the likelihood of this happening to be minimal for the very simple reason that the democrats would never agree to a deal that ends up disadvantaging them in the long term. Nevertheless, here is what I think the parameters of such a deal would have to be:
1. The amnesty is restricted to the ~700,000 illegals already enrolled in the program. In other words, it's an amnesty for a currently existing list of names, not a broad category of people whose number will be ever expanding as more illegals who fit the criteria cross the border.
2. There is no pathway to citizenship. Or realistically, the demographic war is already lost, so I'd settle for a minimum waiting period of 15 years, as by that point another 700k will make no difference to the third world takeover of American electoral politics.
3. The amnestied illegals cannot sponsor any relatives for residency or even visas to the United States.
Note: thus far I have listed the criteria that seek to minimize the damage to our side, but even if 1-3 are fully agreed to, this still represents a 700,000 amnesty gift for the left. None of this stuff is asking the left for concessions: it is literally merely circumscribing the concessions we will give the left by granting amnesty to illegals who by law should be deported. Below are criteria that have to be implemented to offset the damage and make the whole thing worth it for our side:
4. A neutering of the ridiculously overpowered chain migration system. I don't have time to elucidate a bullet by bullet proposal, but the changes should cut the annual flow of "family reunification" by at least half.
5. Mandatory E-verify.
Note: 1-5 have to be part of the deal. If they're not, we're getting sold a lemon, regardless of what else may or may not be part of a cucked-out deal. Here are some distractors that might look good on the surface, but will still end up being garbage if included instead of 1-5:
6.Wall funding or even worse, vague language about "border security." Sad to say, but at this point the wall is a red herring. If Trump went balls-deep on the Wall on day 1, then maybe just maybe we could have had a wall built before enough foxes got into the hen-house to kill all the chickens. As it stands, even Trump's opening gambit funding proposal calls for a building time of 10 years. The wall is not going to make a material difference to the electoral dynamics, certainly not by enough to offset giving 700,000+ illegals already here the vote. Illegals aren't all bad: they can't vote, and at any rate mandatory E-verify would do more to deter their intrusion than what is likely to be a rather porous wall that won't be complete till at best 10 years time. Do we really think we'll have a Republican controlled government post 2024 to oversee the Wall's completion, given demographic trends in Florida and Texas?
7) Ending the diversity lottery. Just do the math: it brings in 50,000 immigrants a year, and it takes years before any of them can vote. Legalizing >700k illegals is equivalent of >14 years of diversity visa inflows in one fell swoop. It will help the left seize power earlier, at which point they'll reinstitute and soup up all sorts of crazy immigration policies anyway.
Now, as far as my thoughts on the likely outcome of the negotiations? I want to be proved wrong, but sadly I think Trump and the republicans will fold like a cheap chair and give the left every substantive morsel the left requests in return for nothing more than crumbs and vague promises that can be included in post-betrayal rhetoric as smoke and mirrors. Trump has been cucked on DACA from the very beginning. Let's not forget that the only reason he "ended" the program was that the threat of lawsuit by conservative state AGs forced his hand. The noises he's been making recently aren't reassuring, either. Still I'm hoping 4-d chess makes a triumphant entrance and makes me look like a fool unworthy of licking Thomas Wictor's boots. We will see.
Personally, I think Trump should have gotten rid of DACA on Day 1 as he promised during the campaign, but it is what it is. From where we stand today, I believe there are only 2 possible outcomes that I could support going forward:
1)No deal is reached and DACA goes the way of an unpleasant dream (heh) you're happy to wake up from. The DACA illegals are subsumed into the larger pool of illegals to which they belong, hopefully to eventually be deported or leave of their own volition but certainly never to get the vote.
2)We get a compromise bill in which the electoral and demographic damage resulting from legalization of DACA illegals is more than offset by advantageous changes to the immigration status-quo elsewhere in the system. I find the likelihood of this happening to be minimal for the very simple reason that the democrats would never agree to a deal that ends up disadvantaging them in the long term. Nevertheless, here is what I think the parameters of such a deal would have to be:
1. The amnesty is restricted to the ~700,000 illegals already enrolled in the program. In other words, it's an amnesty for a currently existing list of names, not a broad category of people whose number will be ever expanding as more illegals who fit the criteria cross the border.
2. There is no pathway to citizenship. Or realistically, the demographic war is already lost, so I'd settle for a minimum waiting period of 15 years, as by that point another 700k will make no difference to the third world takeover of American electoral politics.
3. The amnestied illegals cannot sponsor any relatives for residency or even visas to the United States.
Note: thus far I have listed the criteria that seek to minimize the damage to our side, but even if 1-3 are fully agreed to, this still represents a 700,000 amnesty gift for the left. None of this stuff is asking the left for concessions: it is literally merely circumscribing the concessions we will give the left by granting amnesty to illegals who by law should be deported. Below are criteria that have to be implemented to offset the damage and make the whole thing worth it for our side:
4. A neutering of the ridiculously overpowered chain migration system. I don't have time to elucidate a bullet by bullet proposal, but the changes should cut the annual flow of "family reunification" by at least half.
5. Mandatory E-verify.
Note: 1-5 have to be part of the deal. If they're not, we're getting sold a lemon, regardless of what else may or may not be part of a cucked-out deal. Here are some distractors that might look good on the surface, but will still end up being garbage if included instead of 1-5:
6.Wall funding or even worse, vague language about "border security." Sad to say, but at this point the wall is a red herring. If Trump went balls-deep on the Wall on day 1, then maybe just maybe we could have had a wall built before enough foxes got into the hen-house to kill all the chickens. As it stands, even Trump's opening gambit funding proposal calls for a building time of 10 years. The wall is not going to make a material difference to the electoral dynamics, certainly not by enough to offset giving 700,000+ illegals already here the vote. Illegals aren't all bad: they can't vote, and at any rate mandatory E-verify would do more to deter their intrusion than what is likely to be a rather porous wall that won't be complete till at best 10 years time. Do we really think we'll have a Republican controlled government post 2024 to oversee the Wall's completion, given demographic trends in Florida and Texas?
7) Ending the diversity lottery. Just do the math: it brings in 50,000 immigrants a year, and it takes years before any of them can vote. Legalizing >700k illegals is equivalent of >14 years of diversity visa inflows in one fell swoop. It will help the left seize power earlier, at which point they'll reinstitute and soup up all sorts of crazy immigration policies anyway.
Now, as far as my thoughts on the likely outcome of the negotiations? I want to be proved wrong, but sadly I think Trump and the republicans will fold like a cheap chair and give the left every substantive morsel the left requests in return for nothing more than crumbs and vague promises that can be included in post-betrayal rhetoric as smoke and mirrors. Trump has been cucked on DACA from the very beginning. Let's not forget that the only reason he "ended" the program was that the threat of lawsuit by conservative state AGs forced his hand. The noises he's been making recently aren't reassuring, either. Still I'm hoping 4-d chess makes a triumphant entrance and makes me look like a fool unworthy of licking Thomas Wictor's boots. We will see.