Some people who know me personally, know that I am Iranian and have been in Iranian politics at my younger age.
I was born and raised in Tehran, Iran. And spend first two decades of my life there. Then I moved to the UK and have been here for 11 years. I spend around 9 months in Tehran in 2016.
My friends and I had a bit of discussion about what is happening in Iran right now and would like to share some thoughts here.
- Iran's Deal in 2015 and Lift of many sanctions from US and EU gave this false hope to Iranian people that this will improve their lives. For example, Obama released billions of dollars of cash and handed to the Iranian regime. Apparently, even one dollar of the after sanction wealth didn't reach to ordinary's people table. Life standard of an average family has decreased 30 percent compared to ten years ago (when actually Iran was under heavy sanctions). And the money stayed in the hand of the corrupted regime and their families.
- This is the revolution of the poor. These demonstrations are mainly started for economic reasons. People who have lost their life savings due to the private banks' corruptions plus a sharp increase in prices of basic commodities like eggs, meat and etc started these demonstrations.
- Because the main supporters of this movement are from poor, unemployed and working-class people, it doesn't get much support from the middle-class elite. Therefore, mainstream media, including BBC Persian, Iranian "intellectuals", Liberals, and pro-regime reformists not only support it but also try to sabotage it.
- The main problem with this movement is lack of leadership. There is no political party or leader to mobilize it. So, it is only an anger which will be suppressed over the time.
- If there was a leader like what Iranian revolution had in 1979, then the whole story was different. I understand that people chant in favour of the previous regime and "Shah" to return. However, to be honest, Iranian Prince, Reza Pahlavi, is a liberal cuck. Politically, he stands somewhere in the Democratic party (not even a cuck Republican). For example, he's the main advocate of climate change (imagine they have overthrown your father's Kingdom and now you focus on climate change) and her daughter hangs out with Chelsea Clinton (if that helps).
- Islamic Regime realizes there is no immediate power to overthrow them. So, they go easy on people. This is the reason that we don't see a brutal suppression of the demonstration, something they did not long ago (in 2009) when they opened fire on people and killed hundreds of Iranians if not thousands.
- People are chanting against the whole regime and not siding with any wings of the establishment (Reformists or Principlists). It seems Reformists (people around Hassan Rouhani the current president) will struggle in any future elections. The main struggle in Iranian future will be the struggle between poor and rich. Any right-wing populist (someone like Farage) could win hearts and minds of millions of Iranians.
Finally, this video is also good. Only 20 minutes: