There is an extremely important article in today's Washington Post which points out one of the most significant -- and the most neglected -- facts about this election. It is this: the voter group that Trump has the biggest problem with is actually not minority voters (where his performance is on par with Romney's in 2012) or even women -- though he does have a massive problem with college-educated white women in particular. Rather, this group is Catholic voters.
Donald Trump has a massive Catholic problem
Re-read that last paragraph again. In a typical election, the Democratic and Republican nominees are about tied with Catholic voters (Obama won them by 2 points against Romney). Trump is trailing by about **25 percent** with this group, and it's a huge group -- about a quarter of the electorate. That is a difference of about 6 points in the electorate as a whole, which happens to be about equal to the margin between Clinton and Trump in the current polling average. In other words, if Trump could do as well as Romney did with Catholic voters, it would make the difference between trailing Clinton by a large amount and being tied with her or having a slight lead. There is no other voting block of which that can be said.
It follows that it is of absolutely critical importance to understand how Trump can do better with these voters. It could be the difference between suffering a decisive loss, and eking out a come-from-behind victory.
To understand how Trump can do better with this group of voters, we need to understand why he is trailing so badly among them in the first place. I believe these are the main reasons:
1. As I suggested in an earlier thread, Trump should unveil a series of new proposals under the theme of Reviving the American Family. These proposals should be aimed at reversing the dramatic decline in American birth rates, and fostering a renewed commitment to a large, thriving, fertile American family. These can include a discussion of expanded maternity leave, child tax credits and exemptions, and many other policies that would help Americans have and raise more kids.
Ivanka Trump, who has spoken about these issues before, can be Trump's spokeswoman on this subject. Such a policy -- the commitment to a new #TrumpBabyBoom -- would excite Catholic voters and address the theme of LIFE which they care about so much. And unveiling it would allow Trump to showcase his single greatest asset, his loving and successful children. It would be a win/win/win. Please read that whole post for more details.
2. Continuing with the theme of LIFE, Trump should go after Hillary Clinton for her extreme position on abortion.
Abortion has not been a big issue in this election, and that's fine. But what sometimes gets lost in the binary pro-life/pro-choice divide is that most Americans are actually somewhere in the middle. They are usually against an outright abortion ban, but they also oppose allowing abortions in the third trimester and very close to birth. Many people -- including many women -- have seen videos and ultrasound images that show how the fetus looks like a fully developed human being late in the pregnancy, and they are very uneasy with ending its life.
By contrast, Hillary Clinton has been fanatically committed to an extreme pro-abortion position that does not countenance any restrictions, even very late in the term. This is a position that most Americans would see as heartless, and that should be very unpopular with Catholic voters in particular. Yet she really has not been called out on it.
That should change. Trump -- or SuperPACs supporting him -- should continually run ads outlining and denouncing Hillary's extreme, cruel and heartless pro-abortion absolutism. This will further reinforce her image among voters as personally cold, robotic, and heartless. Trump should present himself as someone within the American mainstream on this -- someone who has been pro-choice in the past and is pro-life now, but who recognizes what a tough issue this is; by contrast, Hillary is absolutely committed to the most extreme position imaginable. Catholic voters need to hear a lot more about this than they have. They understand Democrats are generally pro-choice, but they don't know how extreme Hillary's position in particular has always been.
3. Related to this, while Trump talks a lot about the importance of the Supreme Court, the only way in which he ever makes this specific is 2nd Amendment protections. But Catholics tend not to care as much about this (or even to be pro-gun control). He needs to emphasize at least two other issues: the abortion issue mentioned above (ie that Hillary would appoint extreme pro-abortion judges that would strike down any and all restrictions); and the second issue is that of religious liberty. Catholic voters care a great deal about 1st Amendment religious liberty protections, and this is an issue that will be decided by the Supreme Court over time. It is crucial for Trump -- and those who support him -- to emphasize this. He must make it clear to voters that his view of the importance of Supreme Court picks extends beyond just gun rights. And again, this should be done not just in speeches but in targeted ads in battleground states (which Trump needs to finally start running more of!)
4. On immigration, Trump needs to continue with his recent change of tone and talk about the importance of treating those who are already here in a humane and decent way. That does not mean that he needs to offer a path to citizenship or legalization; but he must make it clear that many of those who are here illegally are good people with families and lives, and that while the country must and will enforce the law, there will be no "deportation force" breaking down doors and separating families in the middle of the night -- which is the way his immigration proposals have been caricatured to voters, Catholic voters in particular. He will never win with these voters on this issue, but he can do much to soften his image and show that he understands the difficulties on a human level and that the "big heart" he often speaks about is an integral part of who he is as a human being.
5. Lastly, Trump should show more personal humility and modesty, picking his spots and using gently self-deprecating humor to do this for maximum impact. His best speech of the campaign so far was his speech in Charlotte where he expressed his regret for some things he'd said; another excellent moment was during his acceptance speech when he said he's "not totally sure he deserves" the support of Evangelical voters. He needs to have a few more pointed moments -- perhaps during a town hall or other interactions with voters, and especially in another town hall featuring his family -- where he showcases this softer side. And he needs to use his great sense of humor to poke a little fun at himself and to deflate the perception of his constant bragging and self-aggrandizement. A little self-deprecating humor at the right time and place will go a VERY long way; it will make voters feel that he is in on the joke; much better done that way than through proclamations of "humility" which could fall flat if done too programmatically or explicitly.
Doing all these things: a new theme of Reviving the American Family and ushering a #TrumpBabyBoom with Ivanka and her own beautiful family front and center; hitting Hillary's heartless abortion extremism in targeted ads; emphasizing the importance of the Supreme Court for life and religious liberty, not just guns; showing a humane and nuanced tone on immigration without compromising on policy basics; and betraying a surprising humility through gentle humor -- would go a very, very long way toward solving Trump's huge problem with Catholic voters. And that may very well make the difference in the outcome of this election.
If you like this post, feel free to share it on social media platforms where Trump's people can see it. They'll be reading the WaPo piece I cited above about Trump's problem with Catholic voters and may well pay attention to discussions that specifically address this issue.
Donald Trump has a massive Catholic problem
Quote:Quote:
Much has been made of Donald Trump’s problems with a few voting groups — female voters, blacks and Hispanics, and young voters, in particular. And, to be sure, they are all problems.
But relatively speaking, his biggest problem actually appears to be with a different group: Catholics.
...
Back in 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney lost the Catholic vote by just 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent. And the GOP has actually won the Catholic vote as recently as 2004 and in 5 of the last 10 11 presidential elections.
But Trump trails among Catholics by a huge margin. A new poll from the Public Religion Research Institute released this week shows him down 23 points, 55-32.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released earlier this month painted an even worse picture for Trump’s Catholic support. He was down by 27 points, 61-34.
If you compare the difference between Romney’s margin among Catholics in 2012 and Trump’s margin among Catholics this year, the 25-point difference is tied for the biggest shift of any demographic group in the Post-ABC poll.
...
It’s also hard to overstate just how significant Trump’s poor performance among Catholics is. That’s because they comprise about one-quarter of voters in the United States (25 percent in 2012 exit polls) and are about as big a voting bloc as non-whites (28 percent) and independents (29 percent).
While we often look at how Trump is doing worse than Romney among Hispanics, we’re really talking about the difference between Trump taking 45 percent of the vote and 46 percent — or maybe 49.5 percent or 50.5 percent. That’s because Hispanics are only about 10 percent of the electorate, and the GOP’s share of that vote is likely to be between 20 and 35 percent or so.
When talking about Catholics, though, Trump is basically adding 5 to 7 percentage points to Clinton’s overall margin. If 25 percent of the electorate is Catholic, Clinton is currently taking 14 to 15 points worth of that chunk, while Trump is taking 8 or 8.5 points. And this is a group, again, that is usually close to tied.
Re-read that last paragraph again. In a typical election, the Democratic and Republican nominees are about tied with Catholic voters (Obama won them by 2 points against Romney). Trump is trailing by about **25 percent** with this group, and it's a huge group -- about a quarter of the electorate. That is a difference of about 6 points in the electorate as a whole, which happens to be about equal to the margin between Clinton and Trump in the current polling average. In other words, if Trump could do as well as Romney did with Catholic voters, it would make the difference between trailing Clinton by a large amount and being tied with her or having a slight lead. There is no other voting block of which that can be said.
It follows that it is of absolutely critical importance to understand how Trump can do better with these voters. It could be the difference between suffering a decisive loss, and eking out a come-from-behind victory.
To understand how Trump can do better with this group of voters, we need to understand why he is trailing so badly among them in the first place. I believe these are the main reasons:
- Catholic voters strongly believe in charity, compassion, and protection for the weak and vulnerable. They are turned off by what they perceive as Trump's obsession with "winning" and corresponding neglect for those who are life's losers.
- Catholic voters strongly believe in the sanctity of life. They oppose both abortion and the death penalty. They see Trump as someone who is indifferent on abortion (having supported it for much of his life) and very willing to talk freely about killing and harsh punishment.
- Catholic voters are sympathetic to immigrants (and of course, the great majority of Hispanic immigrants in the US are fellow Catholics). They dislike what they perceive to be Trump's harshly anti-immigrant rhetoric.
- Catholic voters like personal modesty and humility and are turned off by Trump's constant bragging and self-aggrandizement. They also dislike the fact that he has seemingly no contrition about his personal past (including marital infidelity etc).
1. As I suggested in an earlier thread, Trump should unveil a series of new proposals under the theme of Reviving the American Family. These proposals should be aimed at reversing the dramatic decline in American birth rates, and fostering a renewed commitment to a large, thriving, fertile American family. These can include a discussion of expanded maternity leave, child tax credits and exemptions, and many other policies that would help Americans have and raise more kids.
Ivanka Trump, who has spoken about these issues before, can be Trump's spokeswoman on this subject. Such a policy -- the commitment to a new #TrumpBabyBoom -- would excite Catholic voters and address the theme of LIFE which they care about so much. And unveiling it would allow Trump to showcase his single greatest asset, his loving and successful children. It would be a win/win/win. Please read that whole post for more details.
2. Continuing with the theme of LIFE, Trump should go after Hillary Clinton for her extreme position on abortion.
Abortion has not been a big issue in this election, and that's fine. But what sometimes gets lost in the binary pro-life/pro-choice divide is that most Americans are actually somewhere in the middle. They are usually against an outright abortion ban, but they also oppose allowing abortions in the third trimester and very close to birth. Many people -- including many women -- have seen videos and ultrasound images that show how the fetus looks like a fully developed human being late in the pregnancy, and they are very uneasy with ending its life.
By contrast, Hillary Clinton has been fanatically committed to an extreme pro-abortion position that does not countenance any restrictions, even very late in the term. This is a position that most Americans would see as heartless, and that should be very unpopular with Catholic voters in particular. Yet she really has not been called out on it.
That should change. Trump -- or SuperPACs supporting him -- should continually run ads outlining and denouncing Hillary's extreme, cruel and heartless pro-abortion absolutism. This will further reinforce her image among voters as personally cold, robotic, and heartless. Trump should present himself as someone within the American mainstream on this -- someone who has been pro-choice in the past and is pro-life now, but who recognizes what a tough issue this is; by contrast, Hillary is absolutely committed to the most extreme position imaginable. Catholic voters need to hear a lot more about this than they have. They understand Democrats are generally pro-choice, but they don't know how extreme Hillary's position in particular has always been.
3. Related to this, while Trump talks a lot about the importance of the Supreme Court, the only way in which he ever makes this specific is 2nd Amendment protections. But Catholics tend not to care as much about this (or even to be pro-gun control). He needs to emphasize at least two other issues: the abortion issue mentioned above (ie that Hillary would appoint extreme pro-abortion judges that would strike down any and all restrictions); and the second issue is that of religious liberty. Catholic voters care a great deal about 1st Amendment religious liberty protections, and this is an issue that will be decided by the Supreme Court over time. It is crucial for Trump -- and those who support him -- to emphasize this. He must make it clear to voters that his view of the importance of Supreme Court picks extends beyond just gun rights. And again, this should be done not just in speeches but in targeted ads in battleground states (which Trump needs to finally start running more of!)
4. On immigration, Trump needs to continue with his recent change of tone and talk about the importance of treating those who are already here in a humane and decent way. That does not mean that he needs to offer a path to citizenship or legalization; but he must make it clear that many of those who are here illegally are good people with families and lives, and that while the country must and will enforce the law, there will be no "deportation force" breaking down doors and separating families in the middle of the night -- which is the way his immigration proposals have been caricatured to voters, Catholic voters in particular. He will never win with these voters on this issue, but he can do much to soften his image and show that he understands the difficulties on a human level and that the "big heart" he often speaks about is an integral part of who he is as a human being.
5. Lastly, Trump should show more personal humility and modesty, picking his spots and using gently self-deprecating humor to do this for maximum impact. His best speech of the campaign so far was his speech in Charlotte where he expressed his regret for some things he'd said; another excellent moment was during his acceptance speech when he said he's "not totally sure he deserves" the support of Evangelical voters. He needs to have a few more pointed moments -- perhaps during a town hall or other interactions with voters, and especially in another town hall featuring his family -- where he showcases this softer side. And he needs to use his great sense of humor to poke a little fun at himself and to deflate the perception of his constant bragging and self-aggrandizement. A little self-deprecating humor at the right time and place will go a VERY long way; it will make voters feel that he is in on the joke; much better done that way than through proclamations of "humility" which could fall flat if done too programmatically or explicitly.
Doing all these things: a new theme of Reviving the American Family and ushering a #TrumpBabyBoom with Ivanka and her own beautiful family front and center; hitting Hillary's heartless abortion extremism in targeted ads; emphasizing the importance of the Supreme Court for life and religious liberty, not just guns; showing a humane and nuanced tone on immigration without compromising on policy basics; and betraying a surprising humility through gentle humor -- would go a very, very long way toward solving Trump's huge problem with Catholic voters. And that may very well make the difference in the outcome of this election.
If you like this post, feel free to share it on social media platforms where Trump's people can see it. They'll be reading the WaPo piece I cited above about Trump's problem with Catholic voters and may well pay attention to discussions that specifically address this issue.
same old shit, sixes and sevens Shaft...
