[Ringo]

For the past few months I've been slowly thinking about how I'll transition from being employed to being an entrepreneur and working for myself. Threads like "Things to achieve before 30" also give me a nice kick in the butt.

I was listening to an interview with Kevin Kelly on London Real and he said something that really hit home to me and got me thinking about whatever business I end up venturing in, this will be a very important point to keep in mind:

Quote:

"We're moving from things we can copy, commodities, to things we can't copy - experiences. [...] Everything we manufacture is becoming cheaper and cheaper - the only things that aren't are things we experience: tickets to concerts, personal chef, babysitting, nursing care... Al these things that are based in human relationships and experiences."

Just in the realm of podcasts, London Real itself makes money from advertisement but they also have an "Academy" - a paid community where people connect, share information, etc; guys like Joe Rogan and Brendan Schaub/Bryan Callen also advertise but make most of their money out of live shows. Writers like Mike Cernovich and Roosh are starting to organize live events and seminars. Fitness guys like Steve Maxwell sell books and DVDs but have a ton of clients which they consult with via Skype.

This is not a new concept but I have met a number of RVFers and most of them who owned businesses were more commodity rather than experience-based.

Kelly also wrote an interesting piece a couple of years back called 1000 True Fans. The idea is: you don't need to appeal to the masses and have a million followers. If you can get 1000 true fans, that should be enough to grant you a comfortable livelihood.

Quote:

Assume conservatively that your True Fans will each spend one day’s wages per year in support of what you do. That “one-day-wage” is an average, because of course your truest fans will spend a lot more than that. Let’s peg that per diem each True Fan spends at $100 per year. If you have 1,000 fans that sums up to $100,000 per year, which minus some modest expenses, is a living for most folks.

One thousand is a feasible number. You could count to 1,000. If you added one fan a day, it would take only three years. True Fanship is doable. Pleasing a True Fan is pleasurable, and invigorating. It rewards the artist to remain true, to focus on the unique aspects of their work, the qualities that True Fans appreciate.

This could be an interesting topic - are you guys thinking about this at all? How are you adapting your ventures?

[The Black Knight]

I've been aware of this shift for quite a while and it has impacted what industries I'm willing to invest time and energy in.

The fact of the matter is many things that create wealth for lots of people right now are gonna be wiped out in next 5-50 years.

1. Farms and byproducts - automated.

2. Driving and its byproducts - automated.

3. Any moderate sized manufactured item - automated (3D printing).

4. You mentioned chefs - there is robotic tech right now in development that is trying to replicate tops chefs cooking. There are certain bars that have robotic bartenders already.

Here are a few examples of stuff that requires a personal touch, is protected by the government, isn't replicated easily, or requires creativity. This stuff is the future and resistance to the changing economic dynamics:

1. YouTube star/Entertainer.

2. Politician.

3. Writer/Commentator.

4. Government bureaucrat; particular stuff that requires security clearances.

5. Military/Police.

6. Sales/Marketing (to some degree).

7. Certain medical fields. I say certain fields because there are A LOT of people in the tech world trying automate things at the moment (most pharmacy work is ripe to be completely automated very soon) and they will succeed eventually.

7. Land ownership/Real estate.

8. Teacher.

9. Patented products.

10. Selling to the government.

11. Vice dealer/manufacturer: Alcohol, drugs, women, etc.

As I alluded to: Since I'm aware of the aforementioned and other negative economic conditions, it has made VERY reluctant to invest time and energy into many things. It's like I can see the writing on the wall for most professions/business concepts and it has led to a sort of paralysis at times when deciding what to do for income. Even the fields I listed that are resistance to the changing dynamics of the economy have potential major obstacles to overcome.

The military? A hard life in a politically correct environment AND has an all or nothing retirement system. Can't make it to 20 years for whatever reason? Go fuck yourself.

Teacher or medical? One false accusation/lawsuit away from a ruined career.

Writer or entertainer? Constant hustle with no guarantees of making enough to survive.

In the end, what I ultimately realized and had to accept is that you can't put all your eggs into one basket in this day and age. In that, you have pick at least few things and be working at them at the same time to really cover your ass. And ideally, either:

1. One thing will eventually stick and take off or

2. The income from multiple sources will add up to provide a decent standard of living.

For the mass majority of people going forward though, things will get harder and not easier unless guaranteed incomes/increases in welfare benefits are established; which a few towns/countries have proposed in the last decade. Even Nixon back in his day toyed with the idea (Look up the Family Assistance Plan or FAP - I know haha). There simply isn't enough jobs for the exponentially growing population. I can very easily see the devolution of modern countries turning into places like Brazil; where a minority lives in gated/rich communities while everyone else is living hand to mouth in the urban zones if something isn't done to address the job/economic/population reality in the next 50 years.

Plan accordingly gentlemen.