[RexImperator]

The breakup theory doesn't make much sense...if California and Texas become majority Hispanic, then they will have huge influence over who wins U.S. Elections/Politics etc. , which will surely be a big incentive to stay in the union.

[The_CEO]

[The_CEO]

(06-14-2015 04:10 PM)Soothesayer Wrote:  

In the event of a collapse, expect the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Florida to detach itself from any other cancerous welfare state in order to save it's own citizens.

If you got gangrene on the leg in the Civil War, you knew what you had to do.

Most southern states will be fine. It's deadbeat states like Illinois, New York, Maine and California that will get the lion's share of grief.

Hilarious.
Calif and NY are basically floating those states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/red-state...ens-2011-8

[Samseau]

(06-21-2015 12:28 AM)The_CEO Wrote:  

(06-14-2015 04:10 PM)Soothesayer Wrote:  

In the event of a collapse, expect the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Florida to detach itself from any other cancerous welfare state in order to save it's own citizens.

If you got gangrene on the leg in the Civil War, you knew what you had to do.

Most southern states will be fine. It's deadbeat states like Illinois, New York, Maine and California that will get the lion's share of grief.

Hilarious.
Calif and NY are basically floating those states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/red-state...ens-2011-8

Those "welfare states" also have extremely high minority populations. Yet they still vote red in elections, funny how that works.

[Cattle Rustler]

(06-21-2015 08:26 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 12:28 AM)The_CEO Wrote:  

(06-14-2015 04:10 PM)Soothesayer Wrote:  

In the event of a collapse, expect the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Florida to detach itself from any other cancerous welfare state in order to save it's own citizens.

If you got gangrene on the leg in the Civil War, you knew what you had to do.

Most southern states will be fine. It's deadbeat states like Illinois, New York, Maine and California that will get the lion's share of grief.

Hilarious.
Calif and NY are basically floating those states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/red-state...ens-2011-8

Those "welfare states" also have extremely high minority populations. Yet they still vote red in elections, funny how that works.

Alaska, Mississippi, North Dakota, Louisiana have extremely high minority population?

[The_CEO]

(06-21-2015 08:26 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 12:28 AM)The_CEO Wrote:  

(06-14-2015 04:10 PM)Soothesayer Wrote:  

In the event of a collapse, expect the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Florida to detach itself from any other cancerous welfare state in order to save it's own citizens.

If you got gangrene on the leg in the Civil War, you knew what you had to do.

Most southern states will be fine. It's deadbeat states like Illinois, New York, Maine and California that will get the lion's share of grief.

Hilarious.
Calif and NY are basically floating those states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/red-state...ens-2011-8

Those "welfare states" also have extremely high minority populations. Yet they still vote red in elections, funny how that works.

How what works? And who is "they"?

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics...president/

[Onto]

The US may have it's issues, but what other country is in better shape? The US has a stronger rule of law and anti-corruption than most countries in the world. The US also has some of the best geographical land and natural resources that is well-developed.

Is there a more safe, just and stable country in the world right now or in the foreseeable future to park all your investments?

Is that really China or Russia?

[Simeon_Strangelight]

(06-21-2015 11:04 AM)Onto Wrote:  

The US may have it's issues, but what other country is in better shape? The US has a stronger rule of law and anti-corruption than most countries in the world. The US also has some of the best geographical land and natural resources that is well-developed.

It may have it's issues, but is there a more safe, just and stable country in the world right now or in the foreseeable future to park all your investments?

Is that really China or Russia?

Yes - China is in a far better situation. There are multiple factors beside debt rate which multiply the dangers, ownership structure of debt itself (foreign or internal), uniformity of a population (big plus - multi-culturalism a minus), internal readiness for violence within a country (not all countries are equal in that respect), state of militarization of police, state of control over the people and meddling into their own affairs (family law, child "protective" services, medical enforcement, FEMA, fake or real terrorism as an excuse etc.).

There are plenty of countries which make any kind of internal strife very difficult as of now and are preferable to live in if you have the cash to survive there.

There won't be any kind of split of the US - just the opposite - an ever tighter union with Mexico and other South American countries will be the result, because most of the population will be Latin anyway.

In any case - the signs are there - the sky won't be falling overnight. It's a process that lasts years and decades and there are still opportunities to make money, make your move and prosper. But not facing the facts is negligent either, so everyone should do what he can to be prepared. And no - that is not prepping and arming yourself in my opinion. Prepping and arming will only aid you in short riot-situations, but not beyond.

[Samseau]

(06-21-2015 09:52 AM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 08:26 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 12:28 AM)The_CEO Wrote:  

(06-14-2015 04:10 PM)Soothesayer Wrote:  

In the event of a collapse, expect the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Miss., Alabama, Florida to detach itself from any other cancerous welfare state in order to save it's own citizens.

If you got gangrene on the leg in the Civil War, you knew what you had to do.

Most southern states will be fine. It's deadbeat states like Illinois, New York, Maine and California that will get the lion's share of grief.

Hilarious.
Calif and NY are basically floating those states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/red-state...ens-2011-8

Those "welfare states" also have extremely high minority populations. Yet they still vote red in elections, funny how that works.

Alaska, Mississippi, North Dakota, Louisiana have extremely high minority population?

Why don't you go check the demographics of Mississippi and Louisiana.

[Samseau]

(06-21-2015 11:17 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:04 AM)Onto Wrote:  

The US may have it's issues, but what other country is in better shape? The US has a stronger rule of law and anti-corruption than most countries in the world. The US also has some of the best geographical land and natural resources that is well-developed.

It may have it's issues, but is there a more safe, just and stable country in the world right now or in the foreseeable future to park all your investments?

Is that really China or Russia?

Yes - China is in a far better situation. There are multiple factors beside debt rate which multiply the dangers, ownership structure of debt itself (foreign or internal), uniformity of a population (big plus - multi-culturalism a minus), internal readiness for violence within a country (not all countries are equal in that respect), state of militarization of police, state of control over the people and meddling into their own affairs (family law, child "protective" services, medical enforcement, FEMA, fake or real terrorism as an excuse etc.).

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

[Cattle Rustler]

Considering chinese infrastructure quality along with their river/water/air pollution rates......China being the place to park all your investments is quite outlandish.

Xian Li's cousin will hate on you and use his cousin (cop or politician) to take away all your crap.

There's no rule of law there.

[Deepdiver]

(06-15-2015 08:33 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-15-2015 07:40 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

The irony of China owning America is they really do not. Nearly 30% of international students studying in the USA are from the new millionaires class in China over 230,000 students in the USA in 2015. Where do they set up their stash pads overwhelmingly in USA and also western Canada.

America is strong. Our ability to project air power via Drone technology is strong to say the least - now also on Naval Ships - means your future sons will not have to fly through heavy flak WWII and North Korean style and the world's best and brightest come here to capitalize on their skills and inventiveness.

Read a decent Monetary Sovereignty or Modern Monetary Theory blog about how electronic money and payments drive the world today - Japan may have a funky economy but they still manufacture the highest quality stuff in the world with Korea a close second - China is not even close except for Foxconn basically a US Billionaires invention to make igadgets and MS video game boxes or HP printers... with near prison labor conditions.

What is "The Big Lie" http://mythfighter.com/2015/06/01/finish...a-deficit/

http://mythfighter.com/2015/03/11/stepha...e-big-lie/

A “balanced budget” means the government removes as many dollars from the economy as it puts in, thereby assuring recession. (See: #3 and #4 here.)

A “sustainable” debt is one a debtor can pay off in a timely manner. But there is no debt, of any size, the federal government could not pay off. Every debt in dollars is sustainable to the U.S. federal government.

Not only does our Monetarily Sovereign government have the unlimited ability to create its sovereign dollars, but paying off the debt requires that virtually no new dollars be created.

The so-called federal “debt” really is nothing more than the total of T-security accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank. These accounts are much like savings accounts.

How does a bank “pay off” savings accounts? It simply debits the savings accounts and credits checking accounts. No new dollars needed.

So when MacGuineas whines about federal debt “sustainability,” she is mouthing the Big Lie.

MacGuineas said, “trillion dollar deficits are projected to come back within a decade.”

Translation: The government will pump a trillion dollars worth of stimulus into the economy, every year.

And this is a bad thing??

Ideally, MacGuineas said, the country would balance the budget over the business cycle.

Translation: This is ideal for the rich — you know, the people who pay her salary. Not so good for the poor and middle, but who cares about them? Right, Maya?

“This doesn’t mean we should balance the budget every year. In fact, it makes economic sense to borrow during recessions, and save during times of higher growth.

Here, MacGuineas admits (without realizing it) that deficits grow the economy.

That being the case, why would she not want the economy to grow every year. Answer: She is paid by rich people, not to want it.

Deepdiver, I'm afriad you're being taken for a ride. This seemed like terrible economic logic, so I clicked on some of your links and found out what premises this economist is operating under. I found this:

http://mythfighter.com/2009/09/07/introduction/

Quote:

1. Fact: Money is the way modern economies are measured. By definition, a large economy has a larger money supply than does a small economy. Therefore, a growing economy requires a growing supply of money. QED

I stopped reading right here. This premise is demonstrably false; a large economy does not necessarily have a larger money supply. This is because money is fungible, which means it can be infinitely divided into smaller pieces as the supply of goods and services increases. So, for example, if an economy is growing and producing lots of goods and services for the people, but the money supply remains stagnant, what you'd see is that instead of gas costing 4 dollars a gallon, it falls to 3 dollars a gallon. The supply of money remains the same while the total amount of goods increases, which results in each dollar being worth more since there are fewer dollars in proportion to the total supply of goods.

Since this economist has a fundamentally unsound premise we know the rest of his arguments are bad, and there wasn't much point to reading the rest of him.

That means the entire MMT Modern Monetary Theory school at UMKC is operating on unsound premise - educated men can agree to disagree... Fact is the Gold Standard evaporated when the world's economy became too large to trade on bits of metal. Today it trades on bits in computers primarily the SWIFT system as well as the central banks reserves (more computer bits) and the large commercial and merchantile banks tied to the central banks - all networked by SWIFT.

Bitcoin and virtual currencies threaten the strangle hold the central banks have and their ability to extract huge profits via their control over SWIFT - MIT is doing considerable work in the field of virtual currencies as creative destruction and expansion of free economic activity outside the clutches of the SWIFT TOO BIG TO COMPETE banks.

MS & MMT - Monetary Sovereignty and Modern Monetary Theory are the study of how electronic money flows and how global trade evolves to accommodate electronic money - I do not agree with RMM politics however he makes interesting points on why the corporations and the USA's 510+ Billionaires that control them - not to mention the ruling elite the Billionaires answer to - why they continue to expand and consolidate their wealth and widen the gap in wealth with everyone else.

Even if you completely dismiss MS and MMT - the fact remains the gap between the Forbes world's Billionaires lists (USA 510+) and the rest of the globes population continues to grow with one of the most massive concentrations of wealth in human history over the past 50 years - a coincidence with the end of the Gold Standard?

My choice in life is not to complain about the Billionaires class but to provide the services they demand and and need and live my life to the fullest.

I completely dismiss the idea that the USA will disintegrate when creative economic destruction leads to consolidation and expansion and not disintegration... Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and now UBER all expanding worldwide enterprises... expansion and consolidation is the new model the Corporations and those who run them are interested in - the USA is one of their key Power Centers - you are more likely to see an EU type NAU and SAU then UA North American Union, South American Union then the Union of Americas with likely strong integration with the EU due to strong cultural and ancestry ties. This will also counter the Chinese goal of global resources domination.

The end of the USA is strongly over exaggerated.

Some things to think about:

http://mythfighter.com/2015/06/04/recess...the-money/

http://mythfighter.com/2015/04/29/the-fa...-enjoy-it/

OBTW:

http://info.umkc.edu/news/umkcs-stephani...economist/

UMKC’s Stephanie Kelton Named Chief Economist
Published on January 26, 2015
Will work with Democrats on Senate Budget Committee
kelton website photo 2Stephanie Kelton, associate professor and chair of the Economics Department at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, has been named the chief economist for the Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee in Washington. Each party has its own chief economist on the budget panel, which among other things oversees the Congressional Budget Office

“I’m delighted to have been asked to serve in this important position,” Kelton said. “As Chief Economist on the Democratic staff, I’ll be working with ranking member Sen. (Bernie) Sanders to secure a federal budget that expands Social Security, makes college more affordable and creates millions of jobs though much-needed investments in our nation’s infrastructure.”

Kelton has been at UMKC since 1999 and chair of the Economics Department since August 2012. Her research interests are modern monetary theory, employment policy, history of economic monetary thought, social security and European integration. Kelton assumed the new position on Jan. 5 and will be on a leave of absence from UMKC to work in Washington. Arrangements for her UMKC appointment are pending.

[Deepdiver]

(06-21-2015 11:17 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:04 AM)Onto Wrote:  

The US may have it's issues, but what other country is in better shape? The US has a stronger rule of law and anti-corruption than most countries in the world. The US also has some of the best geographical land and natural resources that is well-developed.

It may have it's issues, but is there a more safe, just and stable country in the world right now or in the foreseeable future to park all your investments?

Is that really China or Russia?

Yes - China is in a far better situation. There are multiple factors beside debt rate which multiply the dangers, ownership structure of debt itself (foreign or internal), uniformity of a population (big plus - multi-culturalism a minus), internal readiness for violence within a country (not all countries are equal in that respect), state of militarization of police, state of control over the people and meddling into their own affairs (family law, child "protective" services, medical enforcement, FEMA, fake or real terrorism as an excuse etc.).

There are plenty of countries which make any kind of internal strife very difficult as of now and are preferable to live in if you have the cash to survive there.

There won't be any kind of split of the US - just the opposite - an ever tighter union with Mexico and other South American countries will be the result, because most of the population will be Latin anyway.

In any case - the signs are there - the sky won't be falling overnight. It's a process that lasts years and decades and there are still opportunities to make money, make your move and prosper. But not facing the facts is negligent either, so everyone should do what he can to be prepared. And no - that is not prepping and arming yourself in my opinion. Prepping and arming will only aid you in short riot-situations, but not beyond.

I agree - rather than prepping and hoarding and arming yourself to the teeth in a bunker in the woods waiting on an apocalypse - a better solution is Globalizing yourself as a "Nomad Capitalist" which I also subscribe to:

Basic goals - a location independent income and spending time in the locations that treat you (as an entrepreneur and businessman) the best. Slogan "Go where you are treated best".

http://nomadcapitalist.com/

[beta_plus]

I usually avoid political discussions here, but why not have the US break up Yugoslavia style? It struck me when I was there that it was the European country that most resembled the make up of the United States. Bosnia was hard to see as an American. It felt like America's nightmare scenario come to life (but with thinner, prettier, and more feminine women).

[Simeon_Strangelight]

(06-21-2015 11:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

You can accumulate wealth in China - currently disposable income is rising there and plenty of people are making money. Accumulating money as an English teacher is not the way to go forward.

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

From the movie Looper again quite fitting - Shanghai 2050:

[Samseau]

(06-21-2015 01:35 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

(06-15-2015 08:33 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-15-2015 07:40 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

The irony of China owning America is they really do not. Nearly 30% of international students studying in the USA are from the new millionaires class in China over 230,000 students in the USA in 2015. Where do they set up their stash pads overwhelmingly in USA and also western Canada.

America is strong. Our ability to project air power via Drone technology is strong to say the least - now also on Naval Ships - means your future sons will not have to fly through heavy flak WWII and North Korean style and the world's best and brightest come here to capitalize on their skills and inventiveness.

Read a decent Monetary Sovereignty or Modern Monetary Theory blog about how electronic money and payments drive the world today - Japan may have a funky economy but they still manufacture the highest quality stuff in the world with Korea a close second - China is not even close except for Foxconn basically a US Billionaires invention to make igadgets and MS video game boxes or HP printers... with near prison labor conditions.

What is "The Big Lie" http://mythfighter.com/2015/06/01/finish...a-deficit/

http://mythfighter.com/2015/03/11/stepha...e-big-lie/

A “balanced budget” means the government removes as many dollars from the economy as it puts in, thereby assuring recession. (See: #3 and #4 here.)

A “sustainable” debt is one a debtor can pay off in a timely manner. But there is no debt, of any size, the federal government could not pay off. Every debt in dollars is sustainable to the U.S. federal government.

Not only does our Monetarily Sovereign government have the unlimited ability to create its sovereign dollars, but paying off the debt requires that virtually no new dollars be created.

The so-called federal “debt” really is nothing more than the total of T-security accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank. These accounts are much like savings accounts.

How does a bank “pay off” savings accounts? It simply debits the savings accounts and credits checking accounts. No new dollars needed.

So when MacGuineas whines about federal debt “sustainability,” she is mouthing the Big Lie.

MacGuineas said, “trillion dollar deficits are projected to come back within a decade.”

Translation: The government will pump a trillion dollars worth of stimulus into the economy, every year.

And this is a bad thing??

Ideally, MacGuineas said, the country would balance the budget over the business cycle.

Translation: This is ideal for the rich — you know, the people who pay her salary. Not so good for the poor and middle, but who cares about them? Right, Maya?

“This doesn’t mean we should balance the budget every year. In fact, it makes economic sense to borrow during recessions, and save during times of higher growth.

Here, MacGuineas admits (without realizing it) that deficits grow the economy.

That being the case, why would she not want the economy to grow every year. Answer: She is paid by rich people, not to want it.

Deepdiver, I'm afriad you're being taken for a ride. This seemed like terrible economic logic, so I clicked on some of your links and found out what premises this economist is operating under. I found this:

http://mythfighter.com/2009/09/07/introduction/

Quote:

1. Fact: Money is the way modern economies are measured. By definition, a large economy has a larger money supply than does a small economy. Therefore, a growing economy requires a growing supply of money. QED

I stopped reading right here. This premise is demonstrably false; a large economy does not necessarily have a larger money supply. This is because money is fungible, which means it can be infinitely divided into smaller pieces as the supply of goods and services increases. So, for example, if an economy is growing and producing lots of goods and services for the people, but the money supply remains stagnant, what you'd see is that instead of gas costing 4 dollars a gallon, it falls to 3 dollars a gallon. The supply of money remains the same while the total amount of goods increases, which results in each dollar being worth more since there are fewer dollars in proportion to the total supply of goods.

Since this economist has a fundamentally unsound premise we know the rest of his arguments are bad, and there wasn't much point to reading the rest of him.

That means the entire MMT Modern Monetary Theory school at UMKC is operating on unsound premise - educated men can agree to disagree... Fact is the Gold Standard evaporated when the world's economy became too large to trade on bits of metal. Today it trades on bits in computers primarily the SWIFT system as well as the central banks reserves (more computer bits) and the large commercial and merchantile banks tied to the central banks - all networked by SWIFT.

The gold standard evaporated when our government needed to spend more money than it had, so it devalued it's currency in order to buy more stuff and ran up deficits.

Also "digitial" currency is a joke; the only currency that has value is the one people will accept in exchange for goods and services. Gold and silver will always be king and queen, fiat currencies are fads that come and go.

Quote:

Bitcoin and virtual currencies threaten the strangle hold the central banks have and their ability to extract huge profits via their control over SWIFT - MIT is doing considerable work in the field of virtual currencies as creative destruction and expansion of free economic activity outside the clutches of the SWIFT TOO BIG TO COMPETE banks.

The virtual currencies are vulnerable to government takeover and represent no challenge to the established order.

Quote:

MS & MMT - Monetary Sovereignty and Modern Monetary Theory are the study of how electronic money flows and how global trade evolves to accommodate electronic money - I do not agree with RMM politics however he makes interesting points on why the corporations and the USA's 510+ Billionaires that control them - not to mention the ruling elite the Billionaires answer to - why they continue to expand and consolidate their wealth and widen the gap in wealth with everyone else.

Most of these big corporations and billionaires would be homeless on the streets begging for change had the 2008 bailouts not occurred. There's nothing to study. They won through evil and corruption.

Quote:

Even if you completely dismiss MS and MMT - the fact remains the gap between the Forbes world's Billionaires lists (USA 510+) and the rest of the globes population continues to grow with one of the most massive concentrations of wealth in human history over the past 50 years - a coincidence with the end of the Gold Standard?

Not a coincidence, but a direct effect. After the gold standard was eliminated it was easy for governments to print cash and hand it out to whoever had the best government connections.

In such an environment it is impossible for a honest businessman to compete.

Quote:

My choice in life is not to complain about the Billionaires class but to provide the services they demand and and need and live my life to the fullest.

I don't accept slavery.

Quote:

I completely dismiss the idea that the USA will disintegrate when creative economic destruction leads to consolidation and expansion and not disintegration... Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and now UBER all expanding worldwide enterprises... expansion and consolidation is the new model the Corporations and those who run them are interested in - the USA is one of their key Power Centers - you are more likely to see an EU type NAU and SAU then UA North American Union, South American Union then the Union of Americas with likely strong integration with the EU due to strong cultural and ancestry ties. This will also counter the Chinese goal of global resources domination.

There is no such thing as creative destruction leading to consolidation. That is a contradiction in terms. The current consolidation is not because of creative destruction occurring, but instead we have stagnant preservation of existing economies and industries into fewer and fewer hands.

For every Uber there are two or three more industries being consolidated.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Stagnant preservation was also how the Roman Empire collapsed with fewer and fewer elites controlling more and more of the Empire's farmland.

Eventually the endgame is the elites turning on each other when there's no more small people to suck blood out of.

Quote:

The end of the USA is strongly over exaggerated.

It's all but assured unless something drastic is done soon.

Quote:

Some things to think about:

http://mythfighter.com/2015/06/04/recess...the-money/

I'm not going to go through the entire mess of an article this is, instead I'll just quote one section to illustrate how bad premises make bad arguments.

Quote:

Economic growth requires growth in the money supply. The misguided drive for “smaller government” and lower deficits, translates into a drive for reduced economic growth.

Reduced deficit growth always begets reduced economic growth and recessions. Depressions have resulted from the extreme version of deficit reduction: Federal surpluses:

1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.

As you can see from the graphs shown below, we have been in a long period of slower and slower deficit (i.e. money creation) growth, which is exactly why we’ve named the graphs “The Recession Clock.”

Notice they start with the same flawed premise of economic growth requiring increased money supply, which is easily disproven.

Next they conclude from this flawed premise that every time the Federal Gov reduces its spending, there will be a recession because look at all of their examples!

Except of course, they forget the period of post-WWII 1945-1960 when America was booming and the debt shrank from all-time highs to near all-time lows. So we can clearly see how a bad premise leads to a bad analysis.

Remember, it doesn't matter how many times you "prove" something, what is important is if it can be disproven. One counter-example is worth more than 1 million verifications.

Quote:

http://mythfighter.com/2015/04/29/the-fa...-enjoy-it/

The TPP is a joke, but again just a small part of why our country is dying. At this point the looting and plundering is wide open but our democracy is run by women and welfare recipients (these two categories overlap considerably) so there's nothing us men can do with votes. The bankruptcy and collapse is coming in the next 5-50 years.

Quote:

OBTW:

http://info.umkc.edu/news/umkcs-stephani...economist/

UMKC’s Stephanie Kelton Named Chief Economist

Hiring more women to be in charge of America's finances: what could go wrong?

[ball dont lie]

(06-21-2015 06:16 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

You can accumulate wealth in China - currently disposable income is rising there and plenty of people are making money. Accumulating money as an English teacher is not the way to go forward.

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

From the movie Looper again quite fitting - Shanghai 2050:

I think there is a good chance China can overcome some of its bigger problems but in the end its not really the kind of place anyone should be trying to emulate or hope will be the global superpower.

Just off the top of my head living here 10 years, a few issues China must deal with.

1) Horrible pollution issues. I live in North China and even today the PMI 2.5 is at 170 which means the air tastes like shit. This is a good number. In the winter it routinely is in the 400's which means you can't see anything for a couple hundred feet. My sinuses break open, bleed and get infected in the winter. Water pollution, pesticides, dirty food, etc.

2) China hasn't figured out how to make anything that isn't a pile of shit without foreign design and perhaps more importantly foreign oversight to make sure people do their job. Apple products are assembled here. BMW has plants where cars are produced/assembled here. The key is foreign oversight and a taskmaster severely punishing bad workmanship, which most Chinese companies don't care about. The best company I can think of that makes things in China is Haier which is a home appliance company and their products are terrible - 1 year stop working is common. Then the consumer can find the "warranty repair shop" somewhere in town which is usually 3rd party. Drop that piece of shit off, only working hours 9-5pm, then wait a week, then pick it up. Add in taxis or sitting on a bus for hours to get there and home. Then the thing breaks again in a year or 6 months. That's why everyone buys foreign because there is quality control and people get fired if the products are terrible.

3) The population is shrinking and no one with a brain is having more than one kid. In the countryside there are IQ 75 peasants having 7 kids because the first 6 were girls. I have students like that. Their parents are barely literate, drink and have shitty jobs and live in squalor. In the cities to have a kid costs an arm and a leg if they want to compete to get into a good middle school, then high school (where the teachers aren't shit and the classmates are smart ). All of this so they can get a high College Entrance Exam score and go to a school that would be terrible in the west but is good in China.

3a) China is almost certainly going to get "old" before it gets "rich". So it will be stuck in the lower-middle income trap. No way are they going to get over the hump to even S.korea, let alone Japanese standards of living in the next 25-30 years before the one child policy effects hit.

4) Essentially all the economic growth people have seen in the last 30 years has been top down, government mandated building - highways, subways, malls, train stations, but stations, airports. That shit is built. Now they are telling people to keep building but there isn't demand for overpriced, badly built housing. The price on that has been falling. Look up the info on empty apartments around China. There isn't ANY more demand in the city of 8 million I live in. There may be a half a million EMPTY apartments and the new apartment complexes prices keep going down. Even the nice ones with OK prices (still high for this city) at night, look at the windows, how many lights does a person see? 20-30 lights in a 50 story building. All smoke and mirrors.

5) Each year the difference between the haves and the have nots is growing like nowhere else. In the city there are Audi 8s and Porches beeping at farmers from outside the city pulling their fruit in by mule cart. Pretty soon its going to a "let them eat cake" scenario.

Those are just some easy ones that everyone should realize. China is alright for making money and thin Chinese girls but its a gigantic shit hole.

[germanico]

(06-21-2015 11:04 AM)Onto Wrote:  

The US may have it's issues, but what other country is in better shape? The US has a stronger rule of law and anti-corruption than most countries in the world. The US also has some of the best geographical land and natural resources that is well-developed.

Is there a more safe, just and stable country in the world right now or in the foreseeable future to park all your investments?

Is that really China or Russia?

The US is not in any way "anti-corruption" they just institutionalized it.

I cant think of any other country where the police can legally seize your property, where politicians are allowed to openly take money from corporations, or where judges are capable of dictating sentences based on their own moral codes.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

(06-21-2015 10:11 PM)ball dont lie Wrote:  

I think there is a good chance China can overcome some of its bigger problems but in the end its not really the kind of place anyone should be trying to emulate or hope will be the global superpower.

Just off the top of my head living here 10 years, a few issues China must deal with.

1) Horrible pollution issues.

2) China hasn't figured out how to make anything that isn't a pile of shit without foreign design and perhaps more importantly foreign oversight to make sure people do their job.

3) The population is shrinking ..

3a) China is almost certainly going to get "old" before it gets "rich". So it will be stuck in the lower-middle income trap.

4) Essentially all the economic growth people have seen in the last 30 years has been top down, government mandated building - highways, subways, malls, train stations, but stations, airports. That shit is built. Now they are telling people to keep building but there isn't demand for overpriced, badly built housing. The price on that has been falling.

5) Each year the difference between the haves and the have nots is growing like nowhere else.

Look - I am not saying it all with starry eyes. I am saying it will become the next Megapower, because it is designed to be that way. China did not pull itself out of the communist state by itself. They were financed, guided and completely created by Western Elite. Their engineers were trained in the West even in the 1980s, their factories were created by Western money, the world's manufacturing capacity was moved there by design. I have read reports in the 1930s that they planned to make China the next country to take over from the US. The main reason for it is the mentality of the population which is very accepting of authoritarian "know your betters" rule.

The problems you mentioned will be resolved

1) Pollution will be solved with rising automation and standards sooner or later just as is in the West. Currently they have extremely low regulations in order to compete the rest of the world out of existence.

2) Of course China is not creating all itself for now. The West is aiding it massively. But you forgetting that the global elite don't give a shit about the country they live in - UK, US, EU. They plan for centuries ahead for their wealth to survive. And they are certainly not investing in the West, they just milk those cows dry.

3) Billion population is still too high for the coming automation and technological unemployment. They will require much less people anyway in the future.
3a) The plans I've read even stated by the UN's Agenda 21 are meant to give every citizen in the world a low standard of living around 1000$/month. The ratio is probably going to be 80% - minimum / 15% middle class / 4% upper middle / 1%+ upper servants and real owners.

So yes - just as in the West - most people are not going to get rich.

4) Infrastructure is the first to be built. The flight from rural areas has barely begun. As long as the empty towns are maintained, then they will wait even 10+ years for either rental peasants or even foreigners.

5) The disparity between the rich and poor is growing everywhere, but people in the West are missing it. It will become more apparent in 10-20 years.

Again - all of this is not my China fantasy, but elite design that I see being done. It would not be possible to attain it all by China itself. For example the transformation Japan took decades and was mostly intrinsic - they were also much more disciplined than China. If China had been going the route of Japan without foreign aid and transfer, then they would be in the current phase by the year 2040 if at all.

Our world looks nothing like the one shown on CNN and described in The Economist.

[Samseau]

(06-21-2015 06:16 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

You can accumulate wealth in China - currently disposable income is rising there and plenty of people are making money. Accumulating money as an English teacher is not the way to go forward.

Wealth concentration is worse in China than it is in America. China's top .0001% pretty much owns everything. Meanwhile the actual currency for the workers is again, devalued at a 6:1 ratio. No one is making much money and the standards of living are only rising because they are coming from zero. To the extent people's lives improve there is a result of increase in production efficiency not actual rising wealth.

Quote:

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

There isn't much freedom to have a family in China because of the one-child rule. However at least I haven't heard of men being divorce raped there.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

(06-22-2015 01:16 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Wealth concentration is worse in China than it is in America. China's top .0001% pretty much owns everything. Meanwhile the actual currency for the workers is again, devalued at a 6:1 ratio. No one is making much money and the standards of living are only rising because they are coming from zero. To the extent people's lives improve there is a result of increase in production efficiency not actual rising wealth.

Quote:

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

There isn't much freedom to have a family in China because of the one-child rule. However at least I haven't heard of men being divorce raped there.

I don't disagree with your points, but the fact remains that in my opinion the elite wants to model the world to China - large minimum wage population, small middle class and very small upper class. Small businesses are set to go and to be taken over by large corporations.

The state in China strangely meddles less into you raising your child than the US and UK government. At least child protective services does not take your kid away just because your ex-wife or a neighbor said that you spanked your 2 year old for 3 seconds. Personally I am for a 2 child policy around the world with 4 children max if you have just girls. (It's generally a better world if there are much more women than men in the fertile age group. Women behave much better when faced with a real likelihood of not getting any man at all - see Ukraine, Belarus etc.)

But of course I am not advocating working your way up or accumulating capital through normal work in China. That is not viable. You can work in the US and invest it to open a business as one jobless German guy I saw who started his Bratwurst and Sauerkraut food cart and now owns several Bavarian style restaurants there. Even if the average Chinese is rising from low levels, rising disposable income will give more opportunities just like that very income has been rising in the US from the 1940s to late 1970s. After that it was just consumption via rising debt. That cycle is now nearing the end.

But you are right - you will never see a real US 1960s middle class there. It will shift straight to a different much less prosperous model.

[Samseau]

^ Also, if the USA wanted to fuck with China, all they'd need to do is supply weapons to the large unwed male population there. The Chinese typically do not revolt at the same frequencies as other nations but when they do, they go ham.

[Deepdiver]

(06-22-2015 01:16 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 06:16 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

You can accumulate wealth in China - currently disposable income is rising there and plenty of people are making money. Accumulating money as an English teacher is not the way to go forward.

Wealth concentration is worse in China than it is in America. China's top .0001% pretty much owns everything. Meanwhile the actual currency for the workers is again, devalued at a 6:1 ratio. No one is making much money and the standards of living are only rising because they are coming from zero. To the extent people's lives improve there is a result of increase in production efficiency not actual rising wealth.

Quote:

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

There isn't much freedom to have a family in China because of the one-child rule. However at least I haven't heard of men being divorce raped there.

Interesting where do the successful Chinese new millionaires class go for a stashpad and future Bug Out Location...

Chinese are very smart and operate on ancient wisdom (General Sun Tsu, 36 Strategies, ebb and flow of power, tides and life Tao Yin/Yang)

They are coming to the USA - drove by Boston's China town today - many new office and condo towers sprouting in and around China Town:

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/artic...te-boston/

Boston is the 7th most popular stash pad city in the world for the New Chinese Millionaires and we have really crappy wet icy winter being on the ocean its like the Gulf Stream and Canadian Artic vortex do battle here every winter... the new Chinese are coming - if they thought the USA was about to collapse I think they might prefer London or Toronto or Zurich - no its BOSTON USA.

[Samseau]

(06-22-2015 06:43 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 01:16 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 06:16 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(06-21-2015 11:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

China devalues their currency at a 6:1 ratio to American dollars and has capital controls. How, exactly, do you think this is better than America? Accumulating savings in China is next to impossible and on top of that you're not allowed to take any money out of the country, hence why BitCoins and Gold are such hot commodities. Both of them cannot be devalued and both of them can be exchanged into American dollars.

You can accumulate wealth in China - currently disposable income is rising there and plenty of people are making money. Accumulating money as an English teacher is not the way to go forward.

Wealth concentration is worse in China than it is in America. China's top .0001% pretty much owns everything. Meanwhile the actual currency for the workers is again, devalued at a 6:1 ratio. No one is making much money and the standards of living are only rising because they are coming from zero. To the extent people's lives improve there is a result of increase in production efficiency not actual rising wealth.

Quote:

China will take over as the world's superpower and Shanghai will be the new New York. So far you have more freedom in many countries than in the US to have a family at your own design. There is also greater freedom for basic things and lifestyles.

There isn't much freedom to have a family in China because of the one-child rule. However at least I haven't heard of men being divorce raped there.

Interesting where do the successful Chinese new millionaires class go for a stashpad and future Bug Out Location...

Chinese are very smart and operate on ancient wisdom (General Sun Tsu, 36 Strategies, ebb and flow of power, tides and life Tao Yin/Yang)

They are coming to the USA - drove by Boston's China town today - many new office and condo towers sprouting in and around China Town:

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/artic...te-boston/

Boston is the 7th most popular stash pad city in the world for the New Chinese Millionaires and we have really crappy wet icy winter being on the ocean its like the Gulf Stream and Canadian Artic vortex do battle here every winter... the new Chinese are coming - if they thought the USA was about to collapse I think they might prefer London or Toronto or Zurich - no its BOSTON USA.

The Chinese buying these locations are the elite. The fact they can even take their cash out of China to buy real estate in other countries shows how much power they have, since the average Chinese man cannot take anything out of China or go to jail. They have strict capital controls.

Also, there are many Chinese who buy in Europe as well.

The Chinese who buy American real estate are diversifying. They know that if China goes down and America goes up, then they will make out huge. But if America goes down, China is also fucked (with the rest of the world) so they lose no matter what.

The problem with making your money via slave labor as the Chinese do is that it impoverishes your home country, so the only thing left to do with the wealth is make huge buildings like the Egyptians did with the Pyramids.

[Simeon_Strangelight]

China has the same money power owners that the US and the EU has. Of course a quick collapse would impact China severely, which is the reason why it will be a gradual decline with the occasional regional flash mob & riots.

Most Westerners barely realized that their disposable income has been falling since the 1980s and the reason why their lifestyle was improving at all was due to technological changes and higher debt. The majority of the population will believe a gradual decline cannot be avoided and the president is doing all he can - heh.