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Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness
#1

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20573741

Quote:Quote:

Abstract
OBJECTIVE:

To establish in children whether inactivity is the cause of fatness or fatness the cause of inactivity.
DESIGN:

A non-intervention prospective cohort study examining children annually from 7 to 10 years. Baseline versus change to follow-up associations were used to examine the direction of causality.
SETTING:

Plymouth, England.
PARTICIPANTS:

202 children (53% boys, 25% overweight/obese) recruited from 40 Plymouth primary schools as part of the EarlyBird study.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Physical activity (PA) was measured using Actigraph accelerometers. The children wore the accelerometers for 7 consecutive days at each annual time point. Two components of PA were analysed: the total volume of PA and the time spent at moderate and vigorous intensities. Body fat per cent (BF%) was measured annually by dual energy x ray absorptiometry.
RESULTS:

BF% was predictive of changes in PA over the following 3 years, but PA levels were not predictive of subsequent changes in BF% over the same follow-up period. Accordingly, a 10% higher BF% at age 7 years predicted a relative decrease in daily moderate and vigorous intensities of 4 min from age 7 to 10 years (r=-0.17, p=0.02), yet more PA at 7 years did not predict a relative decrease in BF% between 7 and 10 years (r=-0.01, p=0.8).
CONCLUSIONS:

Physical inactivity appears to be the result of fatness rather than its cause. This reverse causality may explain why attempts to tackle childhood obesity by promoting PA have been largely unsuccessful.

There was also an interesting blog post on it(long):

http://www.tuitnutrition.com/2014/05/fue...power.html

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Fat people are so lazy, aren’t they?

So weak-willed and undisciplined.

Such greedy sloths.

I mean, really. Eat less, move more. It’s not that hard. They’ve been saying it for decades. All the experts: doctors, personal trainers, dietitians and nutritionists, and all the bigwig MDs, PhDs, and politicos behind the USDA, FDA, American Heart Association, and American Diabetes Association. In order to lose weight, all you have to do is eat less and move more. That’s it. Two steps. Take fewer calories into your body, make sure more get expended via exercise, and you’ll lose weight. Done. Period. End of story. If it wasn’t true—or at least, wasn’t the whole truth—surely someone would have said something by now, right?

Seriously. Obviously everyone struggling to lose excess body fat eats too much and moves too little. That’s really all there is to it. Put down the Fritos and get up off the couch, fatties. Problem solved.

...

Here’s the thing, though. Most of the overweight people I know (myself included, back in the day), are not lazy, greedy, or undisciplined. Some of them are, sure. There are people out there who eat too much junk and sit around all day. But if you’ve ever watched a marathon from the sidelines, you’ve seen people of all shapes and sizes cross the finish line. So unless the heavier folks are downing milkshakes and multiple super-sized fast food meals every day, something’s fishy, because training for a marathon requires a lot of “moving more.”

...

Think about it: eat less, move more? Call me crazy, but to me, this sounds like putting less fuel in your car and expecting to drive farther. Your car doesn’t work that way, and neither does your body. We don’t need to eat less and move more; we need to eat better and move better. Or eat smarter and move smarter. Whichever you prefer.

...

Here’s the funny thing about all this: Science journalist Gary Taubes nails it when he says something to the effect of, “People don’t burn fat because they’re exercising; they’re exercising because they’re burning fat.” Say what?

...

And this is ridiculous. When someone puts on a thick coat to step outside in winter, we don’t say they’re weak-willed. We don’t say they’d be able to spend an hour out in a blizzard without a coat if they just had more willpower. Please. (Possible exception: Tibetan monks who have trained themselves to be human furnaces and can sit outside on blocks of ice, and rapidly melt said blocks.) It’s not being “weak” when you follow the physiological signals your body is giving you. And insulin-resistant, overweight people’s bodies are telling them to eat more and move less. (Specifically, eat more carbs—the very thing that is ultimately causing this cycle. There is just a little more to this, though. I'll post a clarification on willpower/discipline later in the week. And that one might be even more important than this one.)
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#2

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

Quote: (02-09-2015 04:36 PM)eclipse Wrote:  

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20573741

Quote:Quote:

RESULTS:

BF% was predictive of changes in PA over the following 3 years, but PA levels were not predictive of subsequent changes in BF% over the same follow-up period. Accordingly, a 10% higher BF% at age 7 years predicted a relative decrease in daily moderate and vigorous intensities of 4 min from age 7 to 10 years (r=-0.17, p=0.02), yet more PA at 7 years did not predict a relative decrease in BF% between 7 and 10 years (r=-0.01, p=0.8).

p=0.8? How did that get published?

If civilization had been left in female hands we would still be living in grass huts. - Camille Paglia
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#3

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

Its amazing how much "studies" need to be done these days on common sensd and basic physics. Burn more calories then you gain = lose weight. Gain more then you burn = gain weight. It's like that million dollar study done to determine why teen lesbians are overweight. I'm clearly in the wrong field though if these idiots get payed to do this. Should have went from hard science (microbio) to social sciences.
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#4

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

What exactly does p=0.8 mean again?

Quote: (02-09-2015 05:45 PM)EuphoricWizard Wrote:  

Its amazing how much "studies" need to be done these days on common sense and basic physics. Burn more calories then you gain = lose weight. Gain more then you burn = gain weight.

Its much less "common sense" and much more conventional wisdom. Its still worth testing to see if your basic assumptions are right at all.

And its not really basic physics since your body digests food, not burns it. Which not only means a difference in macronutrients (carbs, protein, fat) but also the varying type of carbs/protein/fat and the difference each of them have in your body, and how it affects things like insulin sensitivity.

An example in the blog post:

Quote:Quote:

In a bomb calorimeter, 300 calories of Skittles are equivalent to 300 calories of ribeye steak, or 300 calories of pork belly, or 300 calories of steamed broccoli. Considering how different the biochemical effects of those foods would be upon a human being, it’s fairly funny (and not a little tragic) that we’ve based decades of health and fitness advice on nothing but consuming fewer calories, with (until recently) very little regard for where those calories come from.
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#5

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

It's a fairly complicated statistical thing, but the quick and dirty rule is p<.05 is reliable, p>.05 is not reliable. p=.8 is something you wouldn't even mention to the other people in your lab.

If civilization had been left in female hands we would still be living in grass huts. - Camille Paglia
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#6

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

I think their point is exactly that the effect of PA on body fat% has a p of 0.80 and thus any observed effect is due to chance and not causal.
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#7

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

Quote: (02-09-2015 07:43 PM)Ensam Wrote:  

I think their point is exactly that the effect of PA on body fat% has a p of 0.80 and thus any observed effect is due to chance and not causal.

The r-value is the correlation coefficient. The p-value is its significance.

If civilization had been left in female hands we would still be living in grass huts. - Camille Paglia
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#8

Study indicates: Fatness leads to inactivity, but inactivity does not lead to fatness

Quote: (02-09-2015 08:05 PM)Grange Wrote:  

Quote: (02-09-2015 07:43 PM)Ensam Wrote:  

I think their point is exactly that the effect of PA on body fat% has a p of 0.80 and thus any observed effect is due to chance and not causal.

The r-value is the correlation coefficient. The p-value is its significance.

You're right - I got confused by my industry's own fast and loose use of statistics. That's a shitty finding - they should have just said we couldn't draw any conclusions.
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