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Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?
#1

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

I came cross this list of shrinking nation's population, by Ian Bremmer: all are ex-communist, all are in Eastern (or Central, if you prefer) Europe.

WHY is this?

Quote:Quote:

Slowest Growing Populations (%, 2000-10)
1 Moldova -13%
2 Georgia -8%
3 #Ukraine-7%
4 Bulgaria -6%
5 Latvia -6%
6 Lithuania -5%
7 Belarus -5%

- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/#sthash.Er1Bk1ZI.dpuf

“There is no global anthem, no global currency, no certificate of global citizenship. We pledge allegiance to one flag, and that flag is the American flag!” -DJT
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#2

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

High death rate, alcoholism, massive emigration.
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#3

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

It's the result of the combined destruction of family/dating culture driven by westernization AND poor economics and economic insecurity driven by extremely corrupt governments, new-found crony capitalism and inherited sluggishness and entitlement from communist times. I don't know what it's like in all of these countries, but in Croatia (which also has a terrible birth rate) we seem to have picked up all the worst attributes of both communism and capitalism, and it easily shows in people's well being. I think it's the most likely explanation for them too.

Take just corruption and economic woes and you get fast-growing countries like India or African states. Take just westernization and you get Germany or Spain. Take both and you get... the countries on the list.

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#4

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 01:57 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

. . . I don't know what it's like in all of these countries, but in Croatia (which also has a terrible birth rate) we seem to have picked up all the worst attributes of both communism and capitalism, and it easily shows in people's well being. I think it's the most likely explanation for them too.

"...it easily shows in people's well being." For example, please?

It sounds like you speak as a Croat yourself. I'd like to see the data on the best performing ex-communist nations to be sure. For example, is (Catholic) Poland doing significantly better? How about Latvia, having done exceptionally well out of the last recession (compared to other European nations)?

Even those of the West doing better, like France or Sweden, have done so primarily through welcoming immigrating Muslims - people with very high rates of fertility (ie, reproduction) - who nonetheless carry their own baggage and increasing socio-cultural costs.

Has anyone seen a piece in the Economist of FT on this they could share?

“There is no global anthem, no global currency, no certificate of global citizenship. We pledge allegiance to one flag, and that flag is the American flag!” -DJT
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#5

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 01:36 AM)Orson Wrote:  

WHY is this?

Quote:Quote:

Slowest Growing Populations (%, 2000-10)
1 Moldova -13%
2 Georgia -8%
...
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/#sthash.Er1Bk1ZI.dpuf

First off - the numbers are all wrong. Lithuania for example lost 10% of the population within one year of joining the EU. The reason for the lack of adjustment in the official census numbers are that people do not officially fill out all papers that they have moved. Most who are already living in the West are still registered at home.

The reasons:

1. Emigration (in most countries ranging from 5-15%) [70% responsible]

2. Poverty and low wages (people simply cannot afford to have children - those same emigrants are having 2-3 kids in the UK) [25% responsible]

3. Alcoholism and self-destructive tendencies, suicides etc. - does not concern EE within the EU - more in the FSU, since those guys have lower options. Alcoholism is actually even more prevalent in some Western countries nowadays, but you don't see it out in the open as much due to a better social net. [5% responsible except for FSU]
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#6

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Yeah Europeans are extinguishing themselves in terms of population in comparison to pretty much every other ethnic group in the world and this all ties in with what we complain about on here, feminism, immigration etc. However I don't believe that this is the case for Eastern Europe. High amounts of young people leave the Eastern bloc countries to work in Western Europe or even further overseas. Some of these people settle, others stay for a while but eventually go back; some just go back with the money to build a better life for themselves and their families.

I think its stupid to use immigration as a means of bringing back the status quo of a declining population, first of all you are not looking at the problem and jumping to the solution without thinking. On top of that, EE countries would demographically change forever if you had the same levels of immigrations which we have here in the Western side. It will amount to ethnic cleansing, as Croats, Bulgarians will cease to exist. These are small populations and countries in the first place, the only thing they have going for them, is that they culturally, ethnically and traditionally homogenous which is another reason why Western men go over there to find untainted women.

Israel has a very effective way of boosting their population growth and they are actually excelling the muslim populations in a lot of places. The government incentivises their native population with every kid they have in a stable settlement family. Simple as that, also they actually have pride in their heritage, something which European people have had stamped out of them.
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#7

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Everything mentioned above is a factor, but the no. 1 reason by far is low fertility rates. The Slavic speaking countries along with Japan, South Korea, HK etc. have catastrophically low fertility. Most the former Communist states in Europe have TFR of 1.2-1.3 children per woman.

[Image: fullPOPE_id9782733231098_pu2011-01s_sa02...img010.jpg]

Ironically outside of the German speaking countries, it's the most feminist countries in Europe that have the highest fertility (and it's not because of immigration). It seems to be that the strongest predictor of fertility Europe is how easy it is for a woman to have both a career and children, which might explain why the German speakers fertility resembles their more traditional neighbours. When faced with a choice between having children or having a career, many women in these countries chose the later whereas in France or Sweden they could've had both.
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#8

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Civilizations rise and fall. Populations migrate and get taken over for various reasons. What's happening in Europe is all just part of a normal human process. We don't live long enough to properly appreciate it but if we could come back in a thousand years I'm sure that a lot of countries on Earth, particularly in Europe, the USA, and Japan, would have significantly different demographics.
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#9

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Japan is shrinking fast. China also.

With current speed India will have the largest population at 2100.
Nigeria will come second.
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#10

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

My girl here in Ukraine says if she stays in Ukraine she will never have kids. If she finds her way to a Western country (hint, hint), then yes, she will. Her reasoning is that she doesn't trust doctors in Ukraine, and she feels like her children wouldn't have much opportunity if they grew up here. That's her take on this subject, I'm not sure if I buy it.

This guy Hans Rosling has been studying this issue for many years, he came to another conclusion as to why this is happening, interesting talk:
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_r...and_babies
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#11

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 05:48 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

The reasons:

1. Emigration (in most countries ranging from 5-15%) [70% responsible]

Most of the people in the OP's list of countries have emigrated to richer EU countries, Germany, UK, etc..
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#12

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 06:03 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

Everything mentioned above is a factor, but the no. 1 reason by far is low fertility rates. The Slavic speaking countries along with Japan, South Korea, HK etc. have catastrophically low fertility. Most the former Communist states in Europe have TFR of 1.2-1.3 children per woman.

[Image: fullPOPE_id9782733231098_pu2011-01s_sa02...img010.jpg]

You are missing the point here - if you look at fertility then you realize that most stems from first or second generation immigrants in those countries with the highest fertility.

Even the Eastern Europeans reproduce at higher rates when living in Ireland or UK. And again as I mentioned - some of them are counted as if still living in their EE home-countries.

For families coming out of dirt-poor countries outside of Europe it is absolutely sufficient to pop out kids and live off welfare. The lifestyle is still way superior to the one enjoyed in their previous country. That system basically encourages it and creates greater "diversity". But the truth is that this diversity is not done for the benefit of the people but to accomplish the plan of creating a multi-cultural Western society that can be seperated at will by the plutocracy. The same is happening within the US by rampant support of immigrants from Southern America and Africa.

The goal is for the EU to look like some areas of London, where you sometimes don't see a Caucasian for 2-3 streets. A highly diverse society that is getting economically raped is one in which the plutocracy sleeps best. They WILL NEVER RISE UP against them, since they find that they have little in common between each other.

While theoretically it is possible as seen with the RVF forum which is highly diverse, we all share common traits and interests which unite us. The general population is lacking that.

P.S.> Not bashing immigrants here. If the system destroys their economies, then it is understandable that people leave even the countries they would have loved to stay in.
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#13

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 08:39 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

You are missing the point here - if you look at fertility then you realize that most stems from first or second generation immigrants in those countries with the highest fertility.

Nope, I alluded to this in my earlier post but the higher fertility of places like France, Scandinavia, U.K etc. still holds true when only looking at the native ethnic populations. Meanwhile Spain (which has the highest % of immigrants among the major European countries) and the German speaking countries have high levels of immigration but still have low fertility. Immigrants definitely increase the fertility of Western countries, but there's much more going on here.
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#14

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

High TFRs or Total Fertility Rates are expressions of confidence about the future, optimism about greater possibilities - because children are investments of time, capital, and human capital on building a better future or greater horizons.
Low TFRs mean the opposite.

All children require delayed gratification because mothering and fathering take away from short-term pursuits and increase dissatisfactions, delaying them for later in life and future generations to enjoy.

As the Greeks knew, children also signify death - the birth of a replacement for one's own life. People who do not reproduce dishonor the past by breaking the chain of life, today.

Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language.

“There is no global anthem, no global currency, no certificate of global citizenship. We pledge allegiance to one flag, and that flag is the American flag!” -DJT
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#15

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-25-2014 04:56 AM)Orson Wrote:  

Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language.

Greek is not a dead language.

[Image: facepalm.png]
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#16

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-24-2014 08:46 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

Quote: (07-24-2014 08:39 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

You are missing the point here - if you look at fertility then you realize that most stems from first or second generation immigrants in those countries with the highest fertility.

Nope, I alluded to this in my earlier post but the higher fertility of places like France, Scandinavia, U.K etc. still holds true when only looking at the native ethnic populations. Meanwhile Spain (which has the highest % of immigrants among the major European countries) and the German speaking countries have high levels of immigration but still have low fertility. Immigrants definitely increase the fertility of Western countries, but there's much more going on here.

In Spain, most of the immigrants come from South America and few from Africa (Except Morocco) and Arab countries (again, except Morocco).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigratio...r_pais.png

Whereas in France and Scandinavia, most immigrants come form the Arab world and Africa, two populations with very high fertility rates.
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#17

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-25-2014 01:08 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

Quote: (07-24-2014 08:46 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

Quote: (07-24-2014 08:39 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

You are missing the point here - if you look at fertility then you realize that most stems from first or second generation immigrants in those countries with the highest fertility.

Nope, I alluded to this in my earlier post but the higher fertility of places like France, Scandinavia, U.K etc. still holds true when only looking at the native ethnic populations. Meanwhile Spain (which has the highest % of immigrants among the major European countries) and the German speaking countries have high levels of immigration but still have low fertility. Immigrants definitely increase the fertility of Western countries, but there's much more going on here.

In Spain, most of the immigrants come from South America and few from Africa (Except Morocco) and Arab countries (again, except Morocco).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigratio...r_pais.png

Whereas in France and Scandinavia, most immigrants come form the Arab world and Africa, two populations with very high fertility rates.

That is one point. Another is the high financial assistance that child-bearing women and families receive in the UK, all Scandinavian countries and France. In Southern Europe that is a mere pittance and Germany has seen better days too, since roughly 500.000+ Germans have left their country to find work in Austria, Switzerland and the rest of Europe. They constitute now the biggest number of immigrants to countries like Austria or Switzerland. Nowadays if you don't have a good job there you are the fucking working poor even with welfare by the State.

That is what is going on there. Either way - nowhere does the indigenous population reproduce at 2,1 children per woman (replacement rate). I am not concerned here about any shift of race or religion, because the extermination of the white race won't happen. Lastly also due to advances in genetic engineering, where people will likely be able to choose certain Genetic factors. And in case someone is wondering whether I am throwing the race card here - no - I just prefer to have the whole variety of human girls available - redheads, blondes, white girls with black hair, black girls of various looks and origins, Latinas, Persian girls, Indian girls, Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Thai etc. - would be a shame to have it all thrown into one pot for a stew in several centuries. A man wants variety and I want every one on my all-you-can-eat-world-pussy buffet.






What is more concerning to me is the economic degeneration of all Western countries. While opportunities are still available, the whole gamut is going downhill.

Alas - get location independent and enjoy the good life.
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#18

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-25-2014 05:00 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

Quote: (07-25-2014 04:56 AM)Orson Wrote:  

Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language.

Greek is not a dead language.

[Image: facepalm.png]
I believe he meant Classical Greek.
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#19

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Gentlemen, we have work to do.
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#20

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-25-2014 02:15 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

That is one point. Another is the high financial assistance that child-bearing women and families receive in the UK, all Scandinavian countries and France.

Yup. Like I said these countries all encourage women to have both a career and children and this is one of the main ways they do it. Also having comprehensive after-school care, something Germany does not do very well.

Quote: (07-25-2014 02:20 PM)Trev Wrote:  

Quote: (07-25-2014 05:00 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

Quote: (07-25-2014 04:56 AM)Orson Wrote:  

Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language.

Greek is not a dead language.

[Image: facepalm.png]
I believe he meant Classical Greek.

There is no discontinuity between Ancient and Modern Greek, Greek has never gone dead, it has the longest recorded history of any language. "Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language." is completely wrong about Greek.

Also:

Quote:Quote:

The historical unity and continuing identity between the various stages of the Greek language is often emphasised. Although Greek has undergone morphological and phonological changes comparable to those seen in other languages, never since classical antiquity has its cultural, literary, and orthographic tradition been interrupted to the extent that one can speak of a new language emerging. Greek speakers today still tend to regard literary works of ancient Greek as part of their own rather than a foreign language. It is also often stated that the historical changes have been relatively slight compared with some other languages. According to one estimation, "Homeric Greek is probably closer to demotic than twelfth-century Middle English is to modern spoken English."
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#21

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-25-2014 10:38 PM)Deluge Wrote:  

Quote: (07-25-2014 02:20 PM)Trev Wrote:  

I believe he meant Classical Greek.

There is no discontinuity between Ancient and Modern Greek, Greek has never gone dead, it has the longest recorded history of any language. "Cultures that cannot make the effort will fail - just as Greek and Latin are dead languages: there is no one left to speak them as their primary language." is completely wrong about Greek.

Also:

Quote:Quote:

The historical unity and continuing identity between the various stages of the Greek language is often emphasised. Although Greek has undergone morphological and phonological changes comparable to those seen in other languages, never since classical antiquity has its cultural, literary, and orthographic tradition been interrupted to the extent that one can speak of a new language emerging. Greek speakers today still tend to regard literary works of ancient Greek as part of their own rather than a foreign language. It is also often stated that the historical changes have been relatively slight compared with some other languages. According to one estimation, "Homeric Greek is probably closer to demotic than twelfth-century Middle English is to modern spoken English."
Thanks for the correction. Very interesting indeed.
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#22

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

"Gentlemen we have work to do"

Challenge accepted[Image: banana.gif]

We could start a "Do it for Denmark" type campaign in EE




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#23

Populations shrinking last decade-ALL ex-communist & East European?

Quote: (07-26-2014 11:18 AM)Brian Boru Wrote:  

"Gentlemen we have work to do"

Challenge accepted[Image: banana.gif]

We could start a "Do it for Denmark" type campaign in EE




I'd do Emma for Denmark alright [Image: banana.gif]

But the point is this when seen from a global scale: Our economic system is changing and even with population-shrinkage there is not enough work for all people. Actually not even a 30-hour or 40-hour-workweek would change that. In my estimation we could have a 20-hour-workweek done by one person (husband preferably for the hypergamy) in the household at 90% of all couples.

But our system is not geared towards it due to a multitude of factors. Technological unemployment will become a reality for most jobs sooner or later. So the question is? Why having kids and subjecting them to a missing chair game?

Now even if I belong to the financially independent wealthy ones, how many children can you have? For me personally I think maybe a maximum of 2-3 per woman. I could have way more children within a space of 10 years with several women, but then it becomes the topic of being able to spend quality time with them and not being too restricted time-wise. I still wish to travel and have fun apart from that. It is the same question regarding having pets. Even if you love cats or dogs, how many can you have and still be able to give them enough attention? 2? 5? 25? Even when the financial aspect is fine, then you still need to have time with them. Unless of course you are doing it like the Eyes-Wide-Shut-families of our times and you just track your illegitimate sperm-donations in secret and give them sudden unexplained positions of power or fame knowing that they are your progeny, while they have no fucking clue.

Too much of that shit is happening already. Humankind has sufficient numbers to not be concerned about extinction - even if we would go down to 50 mio., we would still be able to uphold our technological civilization, so I am not overly concerned.
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