[Samseau]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-25...pectations

Quote:

Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009.

And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn't: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine, because even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!

Hahahahaha, well this "recovery" was short lived. Oh, and the DJI is up for the day. It's always bullish when the economy erases half of its gains from last year in one quarter.

[Dagonet]

Can someone translate this into English?

Besides, you know, "We're fucked."

[eradicator]

(06-25-2014 04:37 PM)Dagonet Wrote:  

Can someone translate this into English?

Besides, you know, "We're fucked."

we're broke.

[The Beast1]

(06-25-2014 04:37 PM)Dagonet Wrote:  

Can someone translate this into English?

Besides, you know, "We're fucked."

A recession by the textbook economist definition are two negative quarters of GDP growth.

Translated roughly, it means that the economic health of the country is declining and that you're going to be hearing more about unemployment and the like.

Except this time around, the government and the fed have no more economic bullets left to help prevent or alleviate a downturn. It'll be pretty bad and could be civilly destrabilizing.

[EddieValiant]

Zerohedge is in the business of doom and gloom.

[Snowplow]

Well, its time to start stockpiling booze, food, water, and bullets.

[Giovonny]

This is a great opportunity!

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"

- Baron Rothschild

I bought my condo in 2009 during the depths of the depression.

My poor friends were very nervous.

My rich friends told me to buy assets.

I am not that smart but I know one thing.. Buy low and sell high

When prices are low, consider buying.

There is money to be made during recessions.

[EddieValiant]

If that chart is reliable then there's been three years of expansion, regardless of whether or not part of it was artificially driven. Economies move in cycles, expand, and contract.

[Foolsgo1d]

If this is for real then the UK will shortly follow. Followed by the EU. Greece, spain, portugal, Italy will all implode in civil unrest.

[eradicator]

(06-25-2014 05:02 PM)Giovonny Wrote:  

This is a great opportunity!

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"

- Baron Rothschild

I bought my condo in 2009 during the depths of the depression.

My poor friends were very nervous.

My rich friends told me to buy assets.

I am not that smart but I know one thing.. Buy low and sell high

When prices are low, consider buying.

There is money to be made during recessions.

Good point. I have money tied up in mutual funds, and have been waiting for a crash before buying property.

Maybe now is actually the time, I think things can still tank lower.

[RexImperator]

Hard to know what's true and what's not. ZeroHedge always makes it sound like the apocalypse is around the corner. Turn on NPR (a generally pro-Obama crowd) and you'll hear that things are "looking up, and slowly recovering".

What are the bond markets saying?

I tend to like the economic analysis of guys like Mort Zuckerman...he seems to have a "no bullshit" view of things economic. (I trust him not so much on politics...)

[It_is_my_time]

The economic down turn is bad news, for sure. But in normal times this happens.

What makes this so bad is the following facts are added to it...

- We have doubled the national debt under Obama and got nearly nothing in return. Bailed out some unions at the expense of investors and now the unions are facing the same problems down the road. Set-up some green energy companies that failed miserably and in the end some of Obama's friends got huge pay days by being the execs of these failed companies and China bought the technology for literally less than a penny per dollar we the tax payers invested.

- Obamacare, which is a huge economic trouble maker, has stayed in place making any significant recover that much tougher.

- Student debt bubble is about to pop.

- Housing market and stock market are still being propped up artificially to make things look good.

- We cannot cut interest rates much more and soon they will go up, when they do it will have an ugly affect on the economy.

- Our national debt is higher than our annual GDP which is often the sign of an economy over leveraged and on the verge of collapse.

We had our chance in 2012 to maybe get the ship back on the right course and we flushed the opportunity down the toilet. We still have 2 and 1/2 years of this nonsense left.

We are at best facing a bad economic future for the next ___ years. Depends if the American voters ever wake up and stop voting in Marxists. At worse this is the beginning of the end for the USA and the rest of the civilized world will collapse like a house of cards without the USA there to prop them up.

[RexImperator]

How will the student debt bubble pop, exactly? I'm not sure it can "pop", given that student loans cannot be discharged in a bankruptcy. Seems like Obama is letting a little bit of air out by making the balance dischargeable after 20 years. This only applies to federal loans, though, not the private ones.

[It_is_my_time]

(06-25-2014 06:07 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  

How will the student debt bubble pop, exactly? I'm not sure it can "pop", given that student loans cannot be discharged in a bankruptcy. Seems like Obama is letting a little bit of air out by making the balance dischargeable after 20 years. This only applies to federal loans, though, not the private ones.

Making the balance dischargeable after 20 years will just bloat the national debt, which is out of control, even more.

It is more of kicking the can down the road and making the upcoming fall even greater.

[RexImperator]

This is more of a long term issue though...until some other currency realistically challenges the dollar as a reserve currency, which is still a ways off, the US can continue to get away with all kinds of crap.

[Ensam]

Yeah, student loans don't seem like they're going to cause a crash anytime soon. They're more like a slow drag that's going to keep the economy from growing as quickly as it might. My guess would be this poor quarter was mostly due to the northeast and midwest getting slammed by the polar vortex this year. Lots of major projects put on hold and everybody stayed in doors. There was also an inventory destocking issue and a few other one time events that contributed. Next quarter is predicted to grow at 3.3% and one quarter of contraction does not a recession make.

[monster]

The funny thing about ZH is they're always right. But they're contrarians to the max and even if they're right about the fundamentals, there's too much money and power in the markets to overpower them.

The best examples of their analyses being right was that they were saying Russia/Ukraine was going to go on far longer than it did, and the GM vehicle inventory and recall disaster was just the tip of the iceberg when it came out.

It's funny too. How can the statistics be so far off? First its down 1.9% even though its expected to be up 2%, then the first revision says its actually at only -1%, now its at -2%, and the biggest source of blame is the weather - a miserable winter. Not that people are dropping out of the workforce like flies, but the weather. And then the stock market is up today!

[Samseau]

(06-25-2014 06:52 PM)Ensam Wrote:  

Yeah, student loans don't seem like they're going to cause a crash anytime soon. They're more like a slow drag that's going to keep the economy from growing as quickly as it might. My guess would be this poor quarter was mostly due to the northeast and midwest getting slammed by the polar vortex this year. Lots of major projects put on hold and everybody stayed in doors. There was also an inventory destocking issue and a few other one time events that contributed. Next quarter is predicted to grow at 3.3% and one quarter of contraction does not a recession make.

If you think next quarter's results will be 3.3%, then I got a bridge in Alaska to sell you.

[Tex Pro]

(06-25-2014 07:31 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-25-2014 06:52 PM)Ensam Wrote:  

Yeah, student loans don't seem like they're going to cause a crash anytime soon. They're more like a slow drag that's going to keep the economy from growing as quickly as it might. My guess would be this poor quarter was mostly due to the northeast and midwest getting slammed by the polar vortex this year. Lots of major projects put on hold and everybody stayed in doors. There was also an inventory destocking issue and a few other one time events that contributed. Next quarter is predicted to grow at 3.3% and one quarter of contraction does not a recession make.

If you think next quarter's results will be 3.3%, then I got a bridge in Alaska to sell you.

The government will find some way to BS the statistics to show modest growth for the year.

Of course, they will then (months later) revise the calculations downward when no one is noticing, but yeah the government will continue to gin up the statistics.

I think we are in for more of a slow decline than a rapid fall like Zerohedge predicts.

However, I could be wrong.

[lurker]

(06-25-2014 04:05 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed

What's the savings rate compared to the last few years?

[_DC_]

Good, my feelings have been right. I took all my retirement money out of the S&P in late March. Im still waiting for another crash, it seems so inevitable, esp with the huge debt and all the artifical monies pumped into stocks the past year or two w the QE.

Im continuing to rent, waiting for the housing market and stocks to tumble. As Gio mentioned, buy when shit is fucked and priced low, def don't buy now!

Im assuming this news came out after the markets closed obviously. Any idea how much shit hits the fan tomorrow? That's a big whiff on the GDP prediction.

[Samseau]

The ongoing depression right now is disproportionate in it's effects. Right now flyover country in America is being absolutely decimated and crushed while nearly all growth is contained to the following major cities:

- NYC
- DC
- LA
- Boston
- Chicago
- Miami
- Atlanta
- Seattle
- San Francisco

If you're outside of those cities, you're basically fucked. Meanwhile, my income so far this year looks to outstrip every other year I've been alive, while the majority of America crashes and burns.

People forget that just because it's a depression doesn't mean everyone loses. Quite the country. Usually depressions are just massive relocations of existing wealth. In present America, wealth is being funneled into major cities as middle class white America is cannibalized to support massive government programs, bailouts, and money printing.

Most of the men in this forum are located in major cities - congrats. You get to enjoy the easy pussy and easy money. But do not lose sight of the big picture. America is rapidly transforming right now into a fucking nightmare. Twenty years from now it may not even be safe to leave most city limits. Most roads in America will be completely undrivable.

Do your best to help out the men who lose their jobs to globalization, and do your best not to get fucked over in this shrinking economy.

[Samseau]

(06-25-2014 07:42 PM)_DC_ Wrote:  

Im assuming this news came out after the markets closed obviously. Any idea how much shit hits the fan tomorrow? That's a big whiff on the GDP prediction.

No. Markets were open when the news was announced. Stocks went up. The DJI is up for the day. Stocks aren't reflective of the fundamentals anymore. The stocks represent big banks moving around hundreds of billions of printed cash that cannot be invested anywhere else. Play with the stocks at your own peril.

[RawGod]

(06-25-2014 04:56 PM)EddieValiant Wrote:  

Zerohedge is in the business of doom and gloom.

This isn't about Zerohedge. These are official US Commerce Department figures.

Since you can assume that all US govt economic stats are massaged since 2008, (see Shadowstats) a number this bad is quite significant. I expect to see 0.1% growth next quarter, a complete lie but the minimum to avoid a technical recession.

[Dr. Howard]

(06-25-2014 07:42 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

The ongoing depression right now is disproportionate in it's effects. Right now flyover country in America is being absolutely decimated and crushed while nearly all growth is contained to the following major cities:

- NYC
- DC
- LA
- Boston
- Chicago
- Miami
- Atlanta
- Seattle
- San Francisco

If you're outside of those cities, you're basically fucked. Meanwhile, my income so far this year looks to outstrip every other year I've been alive, while the majority of America crashes and burns.

People forget that just because it's a depression doesn't mean everyone loses. Quite the country. Usually depressions are just massive relocations of existing wealth. In present America, wealth is being funneled into major cities as middle class white America is cannibalized to support massive government programs, bailouts, and money printing.

Most of the men in this forum are located in major cities - congrats. You get to enjoy the easy pussy and easy money. But do not lose sight of the big picture. America is rapidly transforming right now into a fucking nightmare. Twenty years from now it may not even be safe to leave most city limits. Most roads in America will be completely undrivable.

Do your best to help out the men who lose their jobs to globalization, and do your best not to get fucked over in this shrinking economy.

Isnt' North Dakota flyover country? I also didn't see texas cities anywhere on that list.

I don't know if the other places are being 'decimated' but they aren't recovering thats for sure. Agriculture seems to be getting slapped around, and an increase in fuel costs won't help.

If its Q1 the spin is going to blame it all on the harsh winter, but I would add in there the end of unemployment benefits.