[Royale]

^^^ You're correct when you say that wars are not fought the same way they used to. Right now, I'm studying international politics with a focus on East Asia, and from what experts have claimed, the area is sort of an anomaly. With the Chinese purposely manipulating their currency to keep the renminbi less than the dollar, to the Japanese proposing an end to the Article IX armistice treaty by 2020, the East Asian front seems ready to blow at any minute. One things is for certain; wars are fought differently now. Asymmetrical warfare reigns supreme, where counterinsurgency is the name of the game. With the world interconnected, it's difficult to wage war without having other nations coming in to check your movements. The Russian position is different, since the country has the ability to power Europe with their resources and the like. However, China is in a different situation:



When looking at the map, China is in a rather tough spot. The country is surrounded by Russia, NK, India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Now compare that to the Global Firepower Index:

Russia, India, SK, and Japan are amongst the top 10 militaries in the world. Taiwan and Vietnam aren't too shabby either, with both countries taking the 17th, and 23rd rankings respectively. Add in the fact that most of the nations mentioned are either:

A) Allies with the U.S.
B) Had a conflict with China in the past or
C) Both

Makes it tough for China to really make a drastic move. Even with their new missile testing and the displays of military might, it wouldn't work in their best interest to go start some grand war campaign, unless they went cloak and dagger. Cyber and/or economic warfare sound more plausible, rather than rolling tanks down the Kunming-Bangkok Expressway. With that being said, anything can happen.

[Foolsgo1d]

Listen to Disturbed "Land of Confusion" whilst reading this thread. You'll understand

[Samseau]

clever alias Wrote:

No elite have ever been worse off after war. Kaiser Wilhelm, Tsar Nicholas, Charles 1 of Austria, Hitler, Mussolini, Chiang Kai Shek, Tojo, and Saddam

Thanks for proving my point. All of those guys thought they would be better off due to their wars. Just because they lost does nothing to change the fact of their intent.

It's pretty bad when you use sarcasm but end up being wrong.

[Switch]

I think wars will continue to get smaller and smaller and less and less will actually occur because of the very real threat of Nuclear missiles.

Also, Japan can only deploy its army when it is sanctioned by the UN, so any war involving them would have to be very serious, which this issue does not seem to be.

[clever alias]

(05-16-2014 04:55 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

clever alias Wrote:

No elite have ever been worse off after war. Kaiser Wilhelm, Tsar Nicholas, Charles 1 of Austria, Hitler, Mussolini, Chiang Kai Shek, Tojo, and Saddam

Thanks for proving my point. All of those guys thought they would be better off due to their wars. Just because they lost does nothing to change the fact of their intent.

It's pretty bad when you use sarcasm but end up being wrong.

ah, the benefits of ignoring half of what someone says

[Noir]

Personally, I believe that war is off the cards. Interdependence in today's global affairs means conflict is less likely.

Any form of combat would arise with smaller groups through asymmetrical warfare as it is hard to deal with. Governments know this hence sovereign armies' involvement has decreased post-Cold War. More reliance on rebel groups (through funneling of resources and 'political ammo') as well as private military companies (PMCs).

Concerning China, Deng Xiaopeng's 1978 reforms sparked an unprecedented era of economic growth which its military growth has tied to resulted in growing fears over China's military might. With the US leading the international system (security and 'economic' strength) China’s foreign policy can be described as one driven by its domestic policy with Beijing’s key goal of regime security and internal stability being the determinant factor.

China's traditional threats of Japan, Taiwan and the United States are indeed valid, considering the Chinese consider the US as a hegemon, defined by them as country that uses force to control or contain another country and their fear arises from fear of containment rather than outright conflict.

Consider that China is currently subjected to an amount of security challenges which are likely to last over the coming 10-15 years. Given its rise as a global power and its important economic ties with many developed nations, it seems unlikely that military confrontation would provide the most imminent security challenge. This is due to the Chinese elite looking to avoid tensions in the international system in order to avoid jeopardizing their continued economic growth and development. Furthermore, considering that the most important challenge to the Chinese elite is regime security through societal improvements, eradication of pollution and an evenly distributed economic growth, we find that it is the non-traditional threats that pose the largest challenge, not actual conflict. Despite tensions with other sovereign states being inevitable as China grows the gravest security challenges come from within as they pose the biggest threat to the CCP’s legitimacy.


I cannot compare 1914 to 2014 for the simple fact of interdependence, the emergence of the sovereign state and international institutions such as the UN as well as regional/military alliances such as NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Soft power dictates the rhetoric now instead of hard power. These countries have too much to lose.

From time to time they will flex their muscles as Japan did over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands with the occasional retaliation from China.

To the OP: I doubt the Asian region will head towards war. If they do, it won't be conventional at all nor will the soldiers have their countries' flags bearing on their shoulders.

[Noir]

(05-16-2014 05:07 PM)Switch Wrote:  

I think wars will continue to get smaller and smaller and less and less will actually occur because of the very real threat of Nuclear missiles.

Also, Japan can only deploy its army when it is sanctioned by the UN, so any war involving them would have to be very serious, which this issue does not seem to be.

The threat of nuclear missiles is very real however has decreased since the Cold War (minus Israel and Samson Option perhaps -where's kosko?-).

It's akin to getting into a school fight and knowing that the kid's older brother will kick your ass. You won't provoke a fight for retaliation.

Similar to mutually assured destruction, countries won't engage due to fear of being wiped out (defined by their opponents first/second strike capability of retaliation).

Consider the period of detente in the 70s.

[Feisbook Control]

A couple of random thoughts. Firstly, (mostly to do with my second point below, but also because of economic reasons and the piss poor leadership in the country I live in) I believe that Taiwan will likely be part of China in ten years, twenty at the outside, but maybe even less than ten years.

Secondly, a point in favour of the idea that there will be war, and something that goes along with those who believe the greatest threat to China will come from within (which I also agree with) is that the leaders of the CCP have painted themselves into a bit of a corner by pumping up nationalistic feelings over the past couple of decades. The trouble now is that a lot of Chinese are so ready to bristle at any slight (real or perceived, justified or not) that the leaders may face a massive backlash if they are perceived as going soft on foreign nations, especially over territorial integrity.

So, Suits, I really don't want war either (because I live in one of the likely ground zeroes of it), but I'm not putting it off the table. There are a lot of crazy people here (as there are everywhere in the world), from the lowest to the highest echelons of society.

(05-16-2014 11:29 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  

(05-16-2014 05:33 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  

One quarter of the world's land surface alone was owned or controlled by Britain, with many other places being influenced by them. Only Ethiopia (or Libya too?) in Africa was not controlled by a European power.

Ethiopia was independent. Liberia is the other uncolonized African nation you are thinking of.

You're right.

Actually, I had completely forgotten about Liberia. I knew that Libya had been controlled by the Italians, but I wasn't sure when. I was always under the (mistaken) impression that Italy got in on the act after Mussolini came to power and shortly before WW2, but it turns out that Italy took Libya from the Ottomans in 1912 (sick man of Europe indeed!), so that is more than one hundred years ago. That makes a lot more sense than Libya being temporarily free after WW1.

[kdolo]

Also remember for all the fancy analysis that human being can be very irrational ...... including and especially elites.


War can and will happen because of this: people go to war all the time for reason that appear to make no sense...... look at Putin in Ukraine.....wanting to recreate the Soviet Union .....


China will go to war in order to prove that is tough and that it is no longer the sick man of Asia. - to restore prestige.....

[Samseau]

Quote:

Troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers of China’s military were seen heading to the Vietnamese border on May 16 and 17, according to photographs taken by by residents near the border.

Chinese netizens have been posting photographs of the large movement of the People’s Liberation Army, many of them showing Chinese troops in full combat gear heading to the local train station in Chongzuo, along with military vehicles.

One netizen said the Chinese military was taking the train from the Chongzuo station to Pingxiang City, which shares a 60-mile border with Vietnam. The netizen said that the Huu Nghi Border Gate to Vietnam is also now closed.

One of the photos, taken from inside a passenger train, shows the Chinese military preparing artillery for transport on a train track. Others show Chinese troops and military vehicles traveling along dirt roads.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/682973-c...r/?photo=6

It's weird that people on a red-pill forum, a forum dedicated to the study of human nature, could think war impossible in today's day and age. Big mistake assuming humans are rational. Animals like everything else on this planet.