[chyamor]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russians-r...18508.html

thoughts about investing in roubles?

[samsamsam]

Is it this?

   

[Akula]

(12-11-2013 12:30 PM)chyamor Wrote:  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russians-r...18508.html

thoughts about investing in roubles?

I'd be a little wary...it's bounced around 28 and 34 since I've been here, but at one point was at 24 pre-crisis. The corrupt oligarchs and politicians & businessmen basically take most of their savings out of Russia and convert it to other currencies once it gets to a decent amount, so you have constant outflows in the billions. But since they earn so many USDs (due to oil and most commodities being priced in $$s) it sort of evens out, well, sort of.

You can get 6-9% interest rates at the big banks here in Rubles, but be aware that inflation is running pretty high - like 6-7% annually. That said, the exchange rate has only fluctuated between what I mentioned above. I still have most of my savings here in Rubles and will probably exchange some to USD or Euros if the rates improve. ~1.5% GDP growth in 2013 isn't great for BRIC country, but who the hell knows what will happen in the coming years.

Also, worth noting that when Russia defaulted in 1997-8, they only defaulted on the Ruble. All other accounts were left alone. You can earn up to 4-5% on USD and Euro accounts here at the bigger BBB-rated state-owned banks which is well above what you could get in the US or anywhere else. So maybe the play is to open an account at a big bank here and put some in USD/Euros and Rubles?? For the record that's basically what I have now, with most of it actually being in Rubles.

[Tail Gunner]

(12-11-2013 02:17 PM)Akula Wrote:  

You can earn up to 4-5% on USD and Euro accounts here at the bigger BBB-rated state-owned banks which is well above what you could get in the US or anywhere else. So maybe the play is to open an account at a big bank here and put some in USD/Euros and Rubles??

Great information. How safe are the banks there? Are most Russian banks well-capitalized or are they leveraged to the maximum (similar to western banks)?

[Akula]

(12-12-2013 09:15 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(12-11-2013 02:17 PM)Akula Wrote:  

You can earn up to 4-5% on USD and Euro accounts here at the bigger BBB-rated state-owned banks which is well above what you could get in the US or anywhere else. So maybe the play is to open an account at a big bank here and put some in USD/Euros and Rubles??

Great information. How safe are the banks there? Are most Russian banks well-capitalized or are they leveraged to the maximum (similar to western banks)?

Well, I work for a Russian bank (or used to until today)). They are reasonably well capitalized, but are still not Basel III compliant. But the big 3 are all state-owned and subsidized, and given Russia's natural wealth they should all be ok. Personally I think Sberbank will always be ok, given it's massive retail footprint, and VTB is also pretty solid. Gazprombank is the less of the big 3 but still should be ok. After that I would not really risk it and put money into the second tier banks unless you're willing to take the risk. You will get better returns but have more risk as they are not state-owned.

The funny thing to know is that the Russians are all trying to take a large part of their wealth out of the country, so anyone who's coming from abroad and putting money into Russia will be seen as a bit odd given all the volatility that's happened in the past.