The MLB draft is this Thursday. It is a very different beast from the more familiar NFL and NBA drafts, in which front offices must pull out their best economical game theory to get the players they want for the prices they want.
Differences between the MLB draft and the NBA/NFL drafts.
-Teams cannot trade draft picks. The only picks that can be traded are competitive balance picks. Teams earn a competitive balance pick by either:
1. Failing to sign their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd draft pick from the previous year. (additional picks for the following year are attached to the end of the round in which the team failed to sign said player)
2. Losing a player to free agency that had a qualifying offer attached to him. The player who signed the free agent loses their first round pick, and it is given to the team that lost said player. For example: Yovani Gallardo was signed by Baltimore in the off season, so the Texas Rangers gets an additional pick at the end of the first round. Baltimore lost its first round pick, although since it lost Wei-Yin Chen to the same qualifying offer clause, they picked up a draft slot at the end of the first round.
-Teams have a finite sum of money they are allowed to use in the draft. This is a competitive balance issue, so teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can't throw $4 and $5 million dollar signing bonuses at high school players on the fence between turning pro or going to college. This year the Cincinnati Reds have the highest pool of money at $13.9 million, whereas the Cubs only have $2.2 million to spend. Teams can pick up additional slot money by trading for the competitive balance picks mentioned above.
For example, a couple weeks ago the Braves traded for the Oriole's Brian Matusz and their 3rd round competitive balance pick. The Orioles did it as a $3.5 mil salary dump, and the Braves basically picked up the $3.5 mil for the extra slot money to overpay for a player in the 1st or 2nd round they may not have had the funds to sign before.
Generally the top pick in the draft signs for between $6 and $8 million, and depending on how a team wants to use its draft picks, it may underpay for a player not touted as highly as the place he was picked in order to save money for a pick later. Ex. 2012 the Astros picked Carlos Correa first and signed him for $4.8 million. The money saved was enough to sign Lance McCullers with the 41st pick. Both are now key pieces on the Major League squad. The #2 pick in 2012, Byron Buxton, signed for $6 million, making it evident that Carlos Correa was definitely an underslot draft signing to save money for later. The Braves may try the same thing this year with the 3rd pick.
-High school players are eligible for the draft. There's extreme risk in High School players, but unbelievable upside if you hit the jackpot. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Correa, and Anthony Rizzo (plus countless others) were all drafted out of high school. Therefore a special high-school player can give back unbelievable value (especially with how much teams place a premium on youth. (Also players from Puerto Rico are draft eligible: Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Berrios are some of the premium names that have come out of the PR in the last 4 years.)
Top talents in this draft:
There is not a bonafide #1 this year ala Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg. 5 names have been thrown around to go #1, and the Phillies seem to be learning towards Mickey Moniak, a high school bat right now.
Top 5 guys on talent (no particular order)
Mickey Moniak- High School outfielder from California. Great contact, good defense, and instincts. People think as his body matures he will develop more power. MLB Comparison: Christian Yelich
Riley Pint- High School flamethrower from Kansas. Overwhelms with heat, hits 100+ frequently, and has a good curveball. Extremely wild from the video I've seen. However coaches can work wonders with kids and control once moving away from inept high school and American Legion coaches. Comp: I see a lot of Kevin Gausman (without the good change up)
Jason Groome- High School lefty from New Jersey. Was previously the consensus #1, but character issues and makeup have come up recently, making some teams weary. Easy delivery with mid 90s heat, and good curve ball. Signability is becoming an issue (he's committed to Vanderbilt), so a team may have to wow him to sign him. Comp: Cole Hamels
Kyle Lewis- College outfielder from Mercer. Legit power and contact bat that destroyed college competition. Some scouts are concerned about his competition at Mercer, but he hit in the Cape Cod League (which included the country's best college players), and showed extreme patience this year being leaps and bounds better than every one else on his team. Good speed and defense, although most think he will eventually shift to right field, as he is equipped with the arm to make him a plus outfielder in right. Comp: Justin Upton w/ a better arm
AJ Puk- College lefty from Florida. Many saw him as the safest #1, as he was the best starter from one of the best college teams, competing in the best conference in the country (SEC). However some make-up issues have arisen, and scouts are concerned about his bad body (my all-time favorite scouting term). Definitely the highest floor lowest ceiling of the top 5 guys here. Comp: Carlos Rodon
Also important to note: Top 10 talent from PR Delvin Perez has just failed a drug test. Whether its performing enhancing or recreational is unknown. He is still draft eligible, its just a matter of how far he falls. A team could steal him in the 20s if they believe the makeup is legit, and the failed drug test is just a blip on the radar.
For me, as a huge fan of prospects, the MLB draft is awesome. Figuring out which direction teams try to take their drafts, how they use their money, and play off other teams is a fantastic lesson in economics, game theory, and psychology.
Baseball America has the best draft coverage around. Even though they have a paywall for some of their content, there is still good stuff available for free.