Quote: (02-21-2013 08:01 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:
Well the great thing about the quants is they aren't as smart as they think they are. You can use that to your advantage. Those guys have to park billions of dollars. You can't do that without people noticing. Also their models do not account for human emotion and greed. Which is a bigger part of trading than technicals or fundamentals.
If you bought an index fund on the Nasdaq in 99 you wouldn't even have 60% of your money back. If you bought the S&P in 2007 you haven't even broken even yet. Fuck if you bought an index fund tied to the Nikkei before 1990 you wouldn't even have 25% of your capital back and it has been over 20 years.
That's why people advise dollar cost averaging. Who the hell goes all in the market all at once?
If you are others are as good as investing as you claim, you should track your record, raise cash, and start your own hedge fund.
Playing stocks is the dumbest mistake most guys will make.
Dollar cost average into low-cost index funds is the answer. Make contributions every month and then a stock decline won't kill you. Sometimes you buy when stocks and high and sometimes you buy when stocks are low.
But when it averages out, you do just fine.
Now I know a bunch of guys will say, "I made money trading apple! I am an excellent trader!"
OK. Now factor out cash and transaction costs. And factor in your trades over 5 years. That means count your losses, too.
But, again, if guys are consistently beating the markets, what are you doing posting stock tips online? Open a hedge fund or mutual fund and start making tens of millions or more a year.
I personally have apple but otherwise my cash is in a balanced fixed income and equities portfolio.
If I could beat the market, there's no way I'd be talking about stocks online. I'd be minting money and playing with other people's money.