These are my trades for the upcoming week:
AAPL - I’m going to quickly cover the Daily chart of AAPL here, as I think the lower support levels are the most critical at this time. You can see that the RSI is moving down, but overall, it is still in a process of making higher lows, while the stock seems to be oscillating within this large wedge pattern. The 50 SMA has been acting as strong overhead resistance but we could be setting ourselves up here for another attempt to try to power out of this wedge to the upside. Our main concern will be the lower two support levels I have highlighted using orange dotted lines. Now, let’s look intra-day to see if there are some hidden signals that are not evident on the daily chart.
![[Image: aapldaily.png]](http://marksstudio.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/aapldaily.png)
Digging deeper, we can see that AAPL has now formed a nice little Bear Flag on the intra-day 15 minute chart. On Friday, AAPL closed near the lows of the day and that is bearish action, so further downside is very likely at this point, but it doesn’t mean that AAPL can’t experience a small bounce here, like back to the upper flag resistance line near 532. What’s important to look at here, is that if we utilize the measure move theory on any breakout, or breakdown of a stock, AAPL could possibly fall another $20 from current prices which would give us a downside target of $507.50 (See Chart for notes). If this happens, then we are talking about AAPL taking out those two lower support levels with vengeance. What we also know, is that buyers have shown up near this target as well as $505. From this standpoint, shorting AAPL on a break below the Bear Flag support is a no brainer, with a stop set somewhere within the flag itself, like $529-$530.
However, I need to consider where AAPL opens on Monday, whether it gaps up, gaps down, or opens flat, will have a big impact on when I place my trade.
1- If AAPL opens gap up from the lows but still inside the Bear Flag, I will initiate a short position, with my stop set at $533-$535.
2- If AAPL opens gap up ABOVE the Bear Flag channel, I may wait the first 30 minutes to see what happens. If buying pressure is weak, I’ll short; if strong, I’ll reverse and go long
3- If AAPL opens gap down significantly lower than the flag, I will not chase and let AAPL go if it decides to continue falling. Otherwise, AAPL may find support near one of the lower support levels that are highlighted on the chart below.
4- If AAPL opens gap down slightly lower than Friday’s close, I will initiate a short with my stop set at the upper resistance of the flag
5- If AAPL opens flat, I will more than likely enter a short position with my stop at the upper resistance of the flag
![[Image: aaplintra.png]](http://marksstudio.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/aaplintra.png)
I will be using weekly options to enter the trade (ITM puts) if any of the above criteria are met, except #3, where I will probably wait to see how AAPL plays out and not enter the trade. If #3 occurs, then I will consider buying AAPL if I get a clear entry point around the lower support levels. My temporary bias is to the downside as the selling volume is still relatively strong and steady.
GOOG - Google is still looking bullish here but there is some caution to be headed before getting long. We are currently in a rising wedge channel and the 5 day EMA is lagging a bit behind. However, there is support to be found at $735 and $720. The selling pressure showed up as GOOG reached resistance near 740, where profit taking occurred. Again depending on how GOOG opens will depend on my entry for a trade.
1-If GOOG opens gap down near $735, I may initiate a long position with a stop just below $727 if sell-side volume lacks.
2-If GOOG opens gap up, I will see if volume supports the gap and may go long, but I will probably wait about 15 minutes to see how things go. A gap and run could occur.
3-If GOOG opens flat, I will give it time to play out to see where prices want to go. A break below the channel line and I will be short. A reversal candle near the pivot and I will go long.
4-If GOOG opens gap up and it is significantly higher than Friday’s high, then I may consider a short if it is anywhere near a round number, like $750, or $755 with my stop set $5 above the gap.
![[Image: googintra.png]](http://marksstudio.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/googintra.png)
Notes:
I anticipate a healthy pullback on the market either monday and/or tuesday. If we do not pullback sometime then the likely hood of us breaking the all time highs is greatly diminished
![[Image: original_11295672.png?1357344437]](http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_11295672.png?1357344437)
I anticipate most that AAPL will continue its downward trend. An Island trend reversal was created on Friday.
![[Image: original_11293949.png?1357335075]](http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_11293949.png?1357335075)
And i anticipate that GOOG will experience a pullback. On the 30 min chart GOOG ends the day/week with a bearish engulfing pattern, A reversal indicator.
![[Image: original_11294025.png?1357335335]](http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_11294025.png?1357335335)
AAPL - I’m going to quickly cover the Daily chart of AAPL here, as I think the lower support levels are the most critical at this time. You can see that the RSI is moving down, but overall, it is still in a process of making higher lows, while the stock seems to be oscillating within this large wedge pattern. The 50 SMA has been acting as strong overhead resistance but we could be setting ourselves up here for another attempt to try to power out of this wedge to the upside. Our main concern will be the lower two support levels I have highlighted using orange dotted lines. Now, let’s look intra-day to see if there are some hidden signals that are not evident on the daily chart.
Digging deeper, we can see that AAPL has now formed a nice little Bear Flag on the intra-day 15 minute chart. On Friday, AAPL closed near the lows of the day and that is bearish action, so further downside is very likely at this point, but it doesn’t mean that AAPL can’t experience a small bounce here, like back to the upper flag resistance line near 532. What’s important to look at here, is that if we utilize the measure move theory on any breakout, or breakdown of a stock, AAPL could possibly fall another $20 from current prices which would give us a downside target of $507.50 (See Chart for notes). If this happens, then we are talking about AAPL taking out those two lower support levels with vengeance. What we also know, is that buyers have shown up near this target as well as $505. From this standpoint, shorting AAPL on a break below the Bear Flag support is a no brainer, with a stop set somewhere within the flag itself, like $529-$530.
However, I need to consider where AAPL opens on Monday, whether it gaps up, gaps down, or opens flat, will have a big impact on when I place my trade.
1- If AAPL opens gap up from the lows but still inside the Bear Flag, I will initiate a short position, with my stop set at $533-$535.
2- If AAPL opens gap up ABOVE the Bear Flag channel, I may wait the first 30 minutes to see what happens. If buying pressure is weak, I’ll short; if strong, I’ll reverse and go long
3- If AAPL opens gap down significantly lower than the flag, I will not chase and let AAPL go if it decides to continue falling. Otherwise, AAPL may find support near one of the lower support levels that are highlighted on the chart below.
4- If AAPL opens gap down slightly lower than Friday’s close, I will initiate a short with my stop set at the upper resistance of the flag
5- If AAPL opens flat, I will more than likely enter a short position with my stop at the upper resistance of the flag
I will be using weekly options to enter the trade (ITM puts) if any of the above criteria are met, except #3, where I will probably wait to see how AAPL plays out and not enter the trade. If #3 occurs, then I will consider buying AAPL if I get a clear entry point around the lower support levels. My temporary bias is to the downside as the selling volume is still relatively strong and steady.
GOOG - Google is still looking bullish here but there is some caution to be headed before getting long. We are currently in a rising wedge channel and the 5 day EMA is lagging a bit behind. However, there is support to be found at $735 and $720. The selling pressure showed up as GOOG reached resistance near 740, where profit taking occurred. Again depending on how GOOG opens will depend on my entry for a trade.
1-If GOOG opens gap down near $735, I may initiate a long position with a stop just below $727 if sell-side volume lacks.
2-If GOOG opens gap up, I will see if volume supports the gap and may go long, but I will probably wait about 15 minutes to see how things go. A gap and run could occur.
3-If GOOG opens flat, I will give it time to play out to see where prices want to go. A break below the channel line and I will be short. A reversal candle near the pivot and I will go long.
4-If GOOG opens gap up and it is significantly higher than Friday’s high, then I may consider a short if it is anywhere near a round number, like $750, or $755 with my stop set $5 above the gap.
Notes:
I anticipate a healthy pullback on the market either monday and/or tuesday. If we do not pullback sometime then the likely hood of us breaking the all time highs is greatly diminished
I anticipate most that AAPL will continue its downward trend. An Island trend reversal was created on Friday.
And i anticipate that GOOG will experience a pullback. On the 30 min chart GOOG ends the day/week with a bearish engulfing pattern, A reversal indicator.
