[Andy_B]

All signs seem to be pointing in that direction:

- The bankrupt countries keep becoming more bankrupt.

- The citizens of European Countries do not support the project.

- The demographics (aging population and so on) are just getting shittier and shittier.

etc.

What do you guise think?

[bojangles]

No is the simple answer

[Thomas the Rhymer]

(11-21-2012 04:51 AM)Andy_B Wrote:  

All signs seem to be pointing in that direction:

- The bankrupt countries keep becoming more bankrupt.

- The citizens of European Countries do not support the project.

- The demographics (aging population and so on) are just getting shittier and shittier.

etc.

What do you guise think?

What do you mean by collapse? The EU shall certainly change, and possibly the Euro will messily disintegrate, but the EU predates the Euro and will probably go on in some form or other even after the Euro is gone.

[Grayham]

Nah, too many politicians are invested in this project. The Euro might be redesigned over time, but the EU itself will remain, possibly with less authority.

[Cincinnatus]

Short answer - no, but there are some serious changes coming.

Strange thing, seeing what's happening in Europe - didn't seem like it was all that long ago that everyone thought the Euro was going to become the world's reserve currency by 2020.

[Armenian]

If Roosh continues to father more bastard children throughout EE, that should push the Eurozone over the edge with the gov't having to support all those single mothers.
EU should offer Roosh 1 million euros to get a vasectomy.

[fresh]

The europe process is going strong, only helt on a short break, while the crisis hits.
Turkye will wait another periode, and the newest add eastblock, will be fined in form of less payment. The greeks has pretty mutch used their amount. Nothern europe citizens hope of refinements.

But Collapse, the earth itself will colaps before mate..

[PainPositive]

Bumping this thread for relevance. If there is a better one please link me to it.

[Samseau]

Funny how everyone thought the EU wouldn't collapse. It's good to be humbled.

[iknowexactly]

I think the poster is talking about the European Union, not Europe as a civilization.

If you're predicting total anarchy in Europe, I'll take your money although it's hard to define. I'd define it as breakdown of the food supply: empty grocery stores, which I think is very unlikely at this point.

I'd also place a bet on the Euro being in place for at least 90% of the current full member countries in five years.

Funny how doom-sayers won't put up money for specific markers of breakdown at specific dates. Doom-saying gets one brief attention and makes one feel like he has a special, serious knowledge as part of the cognoscenti. It makes the doom-sayer feel like part of something important. The reality is life goes on, you get old and disappear, and the next generation has it's percentage of doom-sayers.

Over the last 2500 years Europeans seem to have had a wonderful time murdering and trying to conquer each other-- it would be interesting to know the average death rate per year for wars--the last really big episode about 70 years ago. The period with the Euro has seemed quite favorable compared to the worse episodes.

Europe is going to be ruder, darker-skinned, more ugly in its street people. But nothings going to collapse in the next few years. Periodic collapse over the last millenia has been the norm. It's hideous and most suffer greatly during it, except war profiteers. But Europe even in the past seems to take vacations for quite a few decades to recover before they descend into the next period of mutual murder. And with current technology it's harder to whip people into a frenzy of hate needed for war, as they immediately and constantly hear counter-opinions to hate mongering ones.

Strange how the Germans were at the center of brutally trying to get the Jews OUT of Europe, killing in the tens of millions including Jews and many others doing so.

Now they seem, via the deluded Merkel, to be screwing Europe up by bringing Muslim immigrants IN.

I just don't like seeing lots of dead people and suffering. I think they could have fostered some kind of fertility program rather than bringing in these lower functioning MENAs. The top 2-3% would probably be beneficial, but not these reckless adventurer hordes.

[johnfortunebg]

Quote:

Funny how doom-sayers won't put up money for specific markers of breakdown at specific dates.

How about this:
By the year 2035, either:
-there would be mass expulsions of at least 50% of the non-European population in a country
or
-there would be a civil war-esque situation in which at least 2.5% of the population of a country will die

I'm certain this will hold for at least 5 countries of the current 28 members of the EU. It is highly likely it will be true for at least 10,

[Dan Woolf]

----------------------------------------

[CynicalContrarian]

My money is on the emergence of a "4th Reich" of some sort.
& I'm not normally the gambling type.

[DjembaDjemba]

I'll bet the opposite, Europe will become more like China for the sake of harmony and fear of another world war scenario. In Asia the Chinese dynasties have changed, and so have their governing methods, but the state itself has remained intact for 3000 years.

Even what constitutes an ethnic Chinese has shifted over the centuries. The people in Chinese manchuria were considered a seperate race, now they're just as Chinese and intermixed into the Han.

Here's food for thought, many posters here were calling for a golden dawn victory in Greece after economic collapse? Lots! They called for blood on the streets, even possibly a coup. Years later, and two elections passed, Greece's left wing has won twice, not it's reactionary right. Mark my words, it'll be the same in France in 2017, national front will make noise, and then win a few seats while either the centre left or centre right win a popular mandate.

People really want stability, and will choose stability over reactionary politics over, and over again, when given the choice. Hence why Europe will look more like China in the future. And if ethnic groups start agitating for war or ethnic cleansing, the state (just like in china) will tighten its control further to tamper nationalist surges.

I'll put my money where my mouth is and invest in euros.

[Turkish Republican]

EU is bound to collapse in one way or the other. Germany, Denmark, Sweden, these are the only countries which actually produce something significant and have a trade surplus. The rest are leechers, Norway was once good but its economy is too dependant on commodity prices. Yes France has a significant industry as well, but the leftist thinking there will force all those factories to relocate to developing countries. Renault carried most of its production to Turkey and the middle east.

If I was a German, I would want nothing to do with the EU. The Spaniards and Greeks are enjoying their siestas at the German taxpayers expense, and so are the gypsies in Bulgaria and Romania.

[Eskhander]

I actually think China's constitutional development has been very minuscule throughout its history.

Each period of authority resembles the last with the only exception being maybe the Communist Party's rule (which is an ideology from outside of China). No so with Europe so I don't think China is the model.

[Foolsgo1d]

(10-17-2015 03:27 PM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

I think the poster is talking about the European Union, not Europe as a civilization.

If you're predicting total anarchy in Europe, I'll take your money although it's hard to define. I'd define it as breakdown of the food supply: empty grocery stores, which I think is very unlikely at this point.

I'd also place a bet on the Euro being in place for at least 90% of the current full member countries in five years.

I do not know when the EU project will collapse but I know this, when it does we will bring the rest of the world into it like we did the last couple of times.

This continent shaped the world and will continue to do so.

[RexImperator]

I have a little guideline for stuff like that, which basically says, "nothing exciting will ever happen." It's true 99.9% of the time. Every once in a while it's violated and you have the Berlin Wall come down or 9/11. But otherwise things mostly stay "boring". The powers that be try to keep it that way.

[malakaix]

The UK referendum to be held in 2017 (possibly as early as 2016) on weather to remain or exit will likely be the catalyst towards a fundamental shift in the EU.

[samsamsam]

...

[Saweeep]

(10-17-2015 04:24 PM)Turkish Republican Wrote:  

If I was a German, I would want nothing to do with the EU. The Spaniards and Greeks are enjoying their siestas at the German taxpayers expense, and so are the gypsies in Bulgaria and Romania.

You've got it back to front.

The Germans have everyone tied into a currency that is bad for them and good for Germany.

The Euro stops a German currency strengthening too much and stops everyone else's weakening too much.

Having to occasionally throw a bone to Greece etc is more than worth it for the German industrial machine.

For example: When I was a young man, pre Euro, there wasn't a BMW or Mercedes to be seen on the streets of Athens, Madrid, Dublin or Lisbon.

Nothing has fundamentally changed since then to the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland however every other car (this is an exaggeration I know) is a German marque.

The Euro is the DM Mk2 just with another name.

This is a complicated discussion but Germany is the big winner of the Eurozone project...of that there is no doubt.

[Saweeep]

(10-17-2015 07:00 PM)malakaix Wrote:  

The UK referendum to be held in 2017 (possibly as early as 2016) on weather to remain or exit will likely be the catalyst towards a fundamental shift in the EU.

Nah.

We will stay in. There is too much power and money at stake to allow us to leave, sadly.

What is happening now is all theatre.

[Phoenix]

^ Yeah that old chestnut gets promised like every other year. Perhaps if the PM leaves his son in a dungeon somewhere in Bulgaria, under the control of an executioner who will put him to the sword if a referendum on the EU isn't held within 6 months, will I believe he might follow through.

[The Beast1]

The EU is the fourth reich. Germany invaded Greece and all of the other small countries using loans for socialism. Then when they couldn't pay it back, they were able to seize the collateral for said loans effectively making each country a debt colony.

Easiest way to own a country without bullets? Own all of their infrastructure, airports, trains, etc.

Genius, Hitler would be proud.

[johnfortunebg]

Quote:

In Asia the Chinese dynasties have changed, and so have their governing methods, but the state itself has remained intact for 3000 years.

And the analogy for Europe is valid how exactly? Does Europe have a track record of political stability in the face of political and economic crises?

Quote:

The people in Chinese manchuria were considered a seperate race, now they're just as Chinese and intermixed into the Han.

Did that happen in 1-2 generations or did it require several centuries to be achieved? Was there an external inflow of manchurians comming in China in the process? Did the manchurians look relatively similar to the Han or was there a difference like the one between white Europeans and black africans?

I'm very interested in the answers to these questions so that I will be certain the analogy holds

Quote:

Here's food for thought, many posters here were calling for a golden dawn victory in Greece after economic collapse? Lots! They called for blood on the streets, even possibly a coup. Years later, and two elections passed, Greece's left wing has won twice, not it's reactionary right.

Golden Dawn is the most popular party in Greece among sub-25 year olds. Pretty good track record for a still relatively homogeneous country (Greece is still >90% Greek) that has always had strong socialist tendencies among the population.

Quote:

People really want stability, and will choose stability over reactionary politics over, and over again, when given the choice.

Until they don't. In Syria, they had the stability of the Assad regime but people supposedly stuck to their tribal allegiances and when the shit hit the fan, we all see what happened.

Is there a country on this planet that has a long enough track record of being ethnically heterogenous, not building a strong national identity over many centuries and not being a shithole? I'll go with 'no'.