[Surreyman]

(10-18-2015 03:10 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 07:00 PM)malakaix Wrote:  

The UK referendum to be held in 2017 (possibly as early as 2016) on weather to remain or exit will likely be the catalyst towards a fundamental shift in the EU.

Nah.

We will stay in. There is too much power and money at stake to allow us to leave, sadly.

What is happening now is all theatre.

Do you think the rise of UK Euroscepticism is going to be used as political leverage to renegotiate our terms of membership?

[Saweeep]

(10-18-2015 07:07 AM)Surreyman Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 03:10 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 07:00 PM)malakaix Wrote:  

The UK referendum to be held in 2017 (possibly as early as 2016) on weather to remain or exit will likely be the catalyst towards a fundamental shift in the EU.

Nah.

We will stay in. There is too much power and money at stake to allow us to leave, sadly.

What is happening now is all theatre.

Do you think the rise of UK Euroscepticism is going to be used as political leverage to renegotiate our terms of membership?

Well.

It's one of those heads they win, tails you lose kind of scenarios.

As I said before, it is all theatre to make us believe we have made a choice.

Nothing will change.

[Samseau]

The EU is going to collapse due to mass immigration. Polls and votes have nothing to do with anything. When towns start getting sacked, looted, and raped by hordes of angry Muslims, the people are going to panic and no one will take orders from the EU. That will be the end of the EU. The EU will then need to assert its rule by fiat and voting will be exposed for the sham it already is.

We are already seeing the start of this with Hungary (they are ahead of the curve - more countries are going to bail as violence escalates).

[Que enspastic]

EU won't collapse. As much as there are negatives, nothing is bad as WW1 & WW2. The goal of the EU is to contain German nationalism and protect France from being outmuscled. To this end it has succeeded in its initial aims.

[Saweeep]

(10-18-2015 08:43 AM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

EU won't collapse. As much as there are negatives, nothing is bad as WW1 & WW2. The goal of the EU is to contain German nationalism and protect France from being outmuscled. To this end it has succeeded in its initial aims.

The goal is a superstate.

All based around egotistical politicians with their heads in the troughs.

They'll get there too within my lifetime, I'm sure.

[Que enspastic]

The EU emerged from the European Coal & Steel Community. This was a group aimed at creating a supranational shared market that would kill off German nationalism and prevent national coal & steel cartels (which were huge players in Hitler's projection of power in Germany).

The whole rationale of the supranational European community emerged from fear of German nationalism. Germany was divided prior to 1871 and its hundreds of principalities and kingdoms were kept apart for hundreds of years prior to reunification on purpose by the foreign offices of France, Russia, Austria and Britain. Post-WW1 the competing ideas were either to destroy Germany economically by rendering it a de-industrialised agricultural backwater or furthering political and economic integration. The League of Nations settled on a half-measure that was the worst case option. Post-WW2 they revisited the idea of how to contain Germany most effectively. The country was split in two and the more industrialised West was incorporated into a European common market that later subsumed national political power to the organisation.

[Saweeep]

You're right but that is no longer the goal.

[Surreyman]

(10-18-2015 09:00 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 08:43 AM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

EU won't collapse. As much as there are negatives, nothing is bad as WW1 & WW2. The goal of the EU is to contain German nationalism and protect France from being outmuscled. To this end it has succeeded in its initial aims.

The goal is a superstate.

All based around egotistical politicians with their heads in the troughs.

They'll get there too within my lifetime, I'm sure.

I know there's a lot of idiots on the continent who believe in that kind of rubbish, but do you really believe people in the UK would stand for it?

Surely once anti-EU feeling reached a fever pitch (which it likely will eventually), the attraction of winning an election based on a Brexit would be enough to tempt any party leader?

[RexImperator]

You could still have the EU without Schengen and the Euro. There needs to be a movement towards less integration. A movement to abandon the "United States of Europe" idea.

[Saweeep]

(10-18-2015 01:06 PM)Surreyman Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 09:00 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 08:43 AM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

EU won't collapse. As much as there are negatives, nothing is bad as WW1 & WW2. The goal of the EU is to contain German nationalism and protect France from being outmuscled. To this end it has succeeded in its initial aims.

The goal is a superstate.

All based around egotistical politicians with their heads in the troughs.

They'll get there too within my lifetime, I'm sure.

I know there's a lot of idiots on the continent who believe in that kind of rubbish, but do you really believe people in the UK would stand for it?

Surely once anti-EU feeling reached a fever pitch (which it likely will eventually), the attraction of winning an election based on a Brexit would be enough to tempt any party leader?

And when they win? Jobs for the boys and trebles all round. A day is a long time in politics...

Well thankfully we are outside of the EZ. That is the clusterfuck from which common monetary policy is the only real solution.

[Khan]

(10-18-2015 08:19 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

The EU is going to collapse due to mass immigration. Polls and votes have nothing to do with anything. When towns start getting sacked, looted, and raped by hordes of angry Muslims, the people are going to panic and no one will take orders from the EU. That will be the end of the EU. The EU will then need to assert its rule by fiat and voting will be exposed for the sham it already is.

We are already seeing the start of this with Hungary (they are ahead of the curve - more countries are going to bail as violence escalates).

I agree. When you look at the recent diplomatic developments regarding the immigrant crisis, it's obvious that countries forming the Visegrad Group (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) have already started to prepare for the probable collapse of the EU. They all have a coordinated foreign policy in key points, the main one being showing the middle finger to Germany and bureaucrats in Brussels.

[Bona fide]

(10-18-2015 01:38 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  

You could still have the EU without Schengen and the Euro. There needs to be a movement towards less integration. A movement to abandon the "United States of Europe" idea.

Nobody makes countries join Shengen or euro.Its a national decision.Euro or Shengen are not crucial for EU membership (although desirable by Brussel of-course).

Many EU countries are neither Shengen members nor have Euro as its currency.
Britain and Denmark for example.

Some non EU countries are Shengen (Iceland and Norway).

[Bona fide]

(10-18-2015 08:19 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

The EU is going to collapse due to mass immigration. Polls and votes have nothing to do with anything. When towns start getting sacked, looted, and raped by hordes of angry Muslims, the people are going to panic and no one will take orders from the EU. That will be the end of the EU. The EU will then need to assert its rule by fiat and voting will be exposed for the sham it already is.

We are already seeing the start of this with Hungary (they are ahead of the curve - more countries are going to bail as violence escalates).

EU does not really give orders.It can only advice on immigration.If a country wants to build a wall it will build a wall and the EU can only frown at it.Maybe express "discontent".

The media in many eurosceptic countries (UK for example) blames Brussel for everything.When in reality they are just covering up the fact that the UK government and UK border agency are unable and unwilling to stop migrants.

Everything is in the hands of locals.British for example complain about migrants and Brussel but vote for Labour in the polling stations.Some claim Nigel Farage as a savior, a man who clearly said in one of his interviews that he prefers Pakistanis,Nigerians and Indians to Estonians or catholic Poles. British National Party would not get even 1% nowadays. Enoch Powell made his famous speech more than 50 years ago, but Britons kept voting Labour and Tories. Would you blame Brussel when Britons clearly expressed their desire to have more migrants from third world countries on numerous ocassions?

Same goes for any other nation in EU, except Eastern Europeans (thanks god for it).

[freeuser]

(10-18-2015 03:09 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 04:24 PM)Turkish Republican Wrote:  

If I was a German, I would want nothing to do with the EU. The Spaniards and Greeks are enjoying their siestas at the German taxpayers expense, and so are the gypsies in Bulgaria and Romania.

You've got it back to front.

The Germans have everyone tied into a currency that is bad for them and good for Germany.

The Euro stops a German currency strengthening too much and stops everyone else's weakening too much.

Having to occasionally throw a bone to Greece etc is more than worth it for the German industrial machine.

For example: When I was a young man, pre Euro, there wasn't a BMW or Mercedes to be seen on the streets of Athens, Madrid, Dublin or Lisbon.

Nothing has fundamentally changed since then to the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland however every other car (this is an exaggeration I know) is a German marque.

The Euro is the DM Mk2 just with another name.

This is a complicated discussion but Germany is the big winner of the Eurozone project...of that there is no doubt.

You´re partially right about Germany being the principal benefactor of the €. Since the common currency is much cheaper than a Mark considering the german trade surplus.

But the Med countries also profit from a stable currency and don´t have periodic devaluations and double digit inflation that have burdened these economies for a long time.

The Euro is like some sort of gold standard. You can´t just devaluate your currency to be competitive again. Which by the way means making everybody poorer too. You have to make serious reforms.

I remember some of these countries during the 80s and they had huge economic problems and incredibly high inflation. They seemde like shitholes, compared to what they are today, with crisis and all. The infrastructure alone was ridiculous. They have made huge advancements, during the last two decades. I think they would be much worse of, whiteout being part of the EU or the €. Remember, having your own currency, doesn´t mean prosperity by itself. After all, most countries on Earth have their own, but only what, 20-25 countries are really rich first world nations? The rest is pretty fucked up.

[Bona fide]

(10-19-2015 04:10 AM)freeuser Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 03:09 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 04:24 PM)Turkish Republican Wrote:  

If I was a German, I would want nothing to do with the EU. The Spaniards and Greeks are enjoying their siestas at the German taxpayers expense, and so are the gypsies in Bulgaria and Romania.

You've got it back to front.

The Germans have everyone tied into a currency that is bad for them and good for Germany.

The Euro stops a German currency strengthening too much and stops everyone else's weakening too much.

Having to occasionally throw a bone to Greece etc is more than worth it for the German industrial machine.

For example: When I was a young man, pre Euro, there wasn't a BMW or Mercedes to be seen on the streets of Athens, Madrid, Dublin or Lisbon.

Nothing has fundamentally changed since then to the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland however every other car (this is an exaggeration I know) is a German marque.

The Euro is the DM Mk2 just with another name.

This is a complicated discussion but Germany is the big winner of the Eurozone project...of that there is no doubt.

You´re partially right about Germany being the principal benefactor of the €. Since the common currency is much cheaper than a Mark considering the german trade surplus.

But the Med countries also profit from a stable currency and don´t have periodic devaluations and double digit inflation that have burdened these economies for a long time.

The Euro is like some sort of gold standard. You can´t just devaluate your currency to be competitive again. Which by the way means making everybody poorer too. You have to make serious reforms.

I remember some of these countries during the 80s and they had huge economic problems, incredibly high inflation. They seemde like shitholes, compared to what they are today, with crisis and all. The infrastructure alone was ridiculous. They have made huge advancements, during the last two decades. I think they would be much worse of, whiteout being part of the EU or the €. Remember, having your own currency, doesn´t mean prosperity by itself. After all, most countries on Earth have their own, but only what, 20-25 countries are really rich first world nations? The rest is pretty fucked up.

This is true. Las year Spain has got a trade surplus for the first time in more than 30 years.Also, albeit staggering unemployment the Spanish economy is doing very well (meaning that its economy previously was artificially inflated while now it is actually healthier than ever).

[Saweeep]

(10-19-2015 04:10 AM)freeuser Wrote:  

But the Med countries also profit from a stable currency and don´t have periodic devaluations and double digit inflation that have burdened these economies for a long time.

The Euro is like some sort of gold standard. You can´t just devaluate your currency to be competitive again. Which by the way means making everybody poorer too. You have to make serious reforms.

I remember some of these countries during the 80s and they had huge economic problems and incredibly high inflation. They seemde like shitholes, compared to what they are today, with crisis and all. The infrastructure alone was ridiculous. They have made huge advancements, during the last two decades. I think they would be much worse of, whiteout being part of the EU or the €.

Well, I once knew a guy who earned little money. During the credit boom of the 00s he bought a lamborghini (seriously) with borrowed money. To complete his lifestyle he got some credit cards and financed a whole new wardrobe of designer gear.

Sadly his lack of actual income eventually caught up with him a few years later and all he ended up with were some nice photos of him in his car and some out of date clothes.

Plus a bankruptcy judgement and no ability to borrow for 6 years minimum.


The moral of the story is that buying shiny things like roads and airports with borrowed money is a recipe for disaster when your underlying economy is built on sand.

The PIIG countries will end up back where they started. The fundamentals are too weak.


The argument that the Euro is good for the Med countries is just absolute nonsense.

[Saweeep]

(10-19-2015 04:03 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

EU does not really give orders.It can only advice on immigration.If a country wants to build a wall it will build a wall and the EU can only frown at it.Maybe express "discontent".

You can't be serious?

[Bona fide]

(10-19-2015 06:55 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 04:03 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

EU does not really give orders.It can only advice on immigration.If a country wants to build a wall it will build a wall and the EU can only frown at it.Maybe express "discontent".

You can't be serious?

Not on migration.Migration policy is internal policy of each member state,losely coordinated by Europe.The UK has opted out from migration distribution plan,remember? You can't opt out from an order,do you?

Also, I see a lot of differences on certain regulations between member state.For example on regulated professions.The policies which Britain would call "EU policy" would not exist in other EU member states etc.

In fact,give me an example of one "order"EU gave.Cant think of any.

[Bona fide]

(10-19-2015 06:53 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 04:10 AM)freeuser Wrote:  

But the Med countries also profit from a stable currency and don´t have periodic devaluations and double digit inflation that have burdened these economies for a long time.

The Euro is like some sort of gold standard. You can´t just devaluate your currency to be competitive again. Which by the way means making everybody poorer too. You have to make serious reforms.

I remember some of these countries during the 80s and they had huge economic problems and incredibly high inflation. They seemde like shitholes, compared to what they are today, with crisis and all. The infrastructure alone was ridiculous. They have made huge advancements, during the last two decades. I think they would be much worse of, whiteout being part of the EU or the €.

Well, I once knew a guy who earned little money. During the credit boom of the 00s he bought a lamborghini (seriously) with borrowed money. To complete his lifestyle he got some credit cards and financed a whole new wardrobe of designer gear.

Sadly his lack of actual income eventually caught up with him a few years later and all he ended up with were some nice photos of him in his car and some out of date clothes.

Plus a bankruptcy judgement and no ability to borrow for 6 years minimum.


The moral of the story is that buying shiny things like roads and airports with borrowed money is a recipe for disaster when your underlying economy is built on sand.

The PIIG countries will end up back where they started. The fundamentals are too weak.


The argument that the Euro is good for the Med countries is just absolute nonsense.

It's actually exactly the opposite.In Spain fundamentals are better than ever in its history. Trade surplus, manufacturing and agriculture up.Similar trends in Italy.The bubble created by foreign investments (mainly in properties and services) has evaporated leaving healthy economy and abundance of quality labour.

And by the way -Spanish foreign debt is 167% of GDP,Italian is 124% while British is 406%. Seems to be Spain borrows less to build "shiny airports" than Britain.

Greece is a different story though.

[johnfortunebg]

(10-19-2015 08:01 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

In fact,give me an example of one "order"EU gave.Cant think of any.

The European Commision has started 3 legislative procedures against Bulgaria due to the handling of migrants

You may not consider this 'an order' per se but they do have legal rights to sanction member states.

Also, Britain opted out of the redestribution scheme because they had the option of opting out (along with Denmark, I think). Other countries did not.

[Saweeep]

Bona Fide, do you work for the EU or something?

The difference between the debts of EZ countries and Britain is that we control our own currency. Surely you understand what difference that makes and why it is a folly to have Spain and Germany tied to the same currency without common monetary policy?

[Saweeep]

(10-19-2015 08:01 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 06:55 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 04:03 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

EU does not really give orders.It can only advice on immigration.If a country wants to build a wall it will build a wall and the EU can only frown at it.Maybe express "discontent".

You can't be serious?

Not on migration.Migration policy is internal policy of each member state,losely coordinated by Europe.The UK has opted out from migration distribution plan,remember? You can't opt out from an order,do you?

Also, I see a lot of differences on certain regulations between member state.For example on regulated professions.The policies which Britain would call "EU policy" would not exist in other EU member states etc.

In fact,give me an example of one "order"EU gave.Cant think of any.

I run a franchise business. I am the franchisor.

There are lots of things I can contractually give orders on and lots of things I can't.

However there are good reasons for my franchisees to follow my wishes on just about everything as I have the power to make life either very difficult or absolutely brilliant for them should I so wish.

For I have the power and the money.

[freeuser]

(10-19-2015 06:53 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 04:10 AM)freeuser Wrote:  

But the Med countries also profit from a stable currency and don´t have periodic devaluations and double digit inflation that have burdened these economies for a long time.

The Euro is like some sort of gold standard. You can´t just devaluate your currency to be competitive again. Which by the way means making everybody poorer too. You have to make serious reforms.

I remember some of these countries during the 80s and they had huge economic problems and incredibly high inflation. They seemde like shitholes, compared to what they are today, with crisis and all. The infrastructure alone was ridiculous. They have made huge advancements, during the last two decades. I think they would be much worse of, whiteout being part of the EU or the €.

Well, I once knew a guy who earned little money. During the credit boom of the 00s he bought a lamborghini (seriously) with borrowed money. To complete his lifestyle he got some credit cards and financed a whole new wardrobe of designer gear.

Sadly his lack of actual income eventually caught up with him a few years later and all he ended up with were some nice photos of him in his car and some out of date clothes.

Plus a bankruptcy judgement and no ability to borrow for 6 years minimum.


The moral of the story is that buying shiny things like roads and airports with borrowed money is a recipe for disaster when your underlying economy is built on sand.

The PIIG countries will end up back where they started. The fundamentals are too weak.


The argument that the Euro is good for the Med countries is just absolute nonsense.

I disagree. With the exemption of Greece, which is pretty fucked, whatever it stays in the € or goes back to a worthless neo Dracma. Ireland has a GDP per capita in PPP of 51,284 $ for 2014 according to the IMF compared to the 39,826 $ of the United Kingdom. It´s doing pretty well. Spain will grow phenomenally this year. Yes it has a horrible unemployment rate. But Spain has traditionally suffered from a chronically high unemployment rate. It´s due to a horribly rigid labor market more than the currency they use. And like I said earlier, it´s just way more developed, than when it entered the EU and even the € at the beginning of the millennium. Italy has not been competitive since what, the 80s, the 90s? It´s not due to the € but in my opinion due to excessive red tape and monstrous bureaucracy and obsolete regulations.

I don´t think these countries would be doing much better without the €. They would have probably suffered a massive devaluation which would have made their citizens loose the value of their savings like it happens in Argentina or Venezuela. Postponing vital reforms until the vicious cycle starts over again.

[Libertas]

(10-19-2015 04:03 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

Everything is in the hands of locals.

Bullshit. Go see Going strong's post in the invasion thread in response to what I asked him.

EU regulations make it effectively impossible to deport any illegals as soon as they step foot on European soil.

(10-19-2015 08:06 AM)Bona fide Wrote:  

It's actually exactly the opposite.In Spain fundamentals are better than ever in its history.