Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Printable Version
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Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - DamienCasanova - 07-01-2016
Silver POPS, nearing $20/oz. Decouples from the traditional Gold to Silver Ratio, with both still trending upwards
![[Image: ag_go_0030_ny.gif]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/ag_go_0030_ny.gif)
Silver is up almost 25% in the last month! From $16 to over $19.50/oz, and it will probably pass $20/oz again very soon.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - JayJuanGee - 07-04-2016
We are likely in weird times in respect to various governmental relations with respect to various PMs and governments considering what roles that it should play in respect to various PMs.
Even though the below linked article is a couple months old, I looked back in this thread and did not see it discussed. Also, I posted the below link in the bitcoin thread and I made a few comments about it there.
https://www.pimco.com/insights/viewpoint...at-the-fed
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - DamienCasanova - 07-15-2016
Anyone in Russia? Now might be a good time to book a trip....
How to Legally Steal $35,000 from Vladimir Putin
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-15...imir-putin
The Russian ruble has become so cheap, however, that some of its coins are basically worthless.
The 1 kopek coin, for example, is the smallest denomination Russian coin that’s worth 1/100th of a ruble.
At current exchange rates that’s $0.00015, or about 0.015 cents! It’s nothing.
And yet each kopek coin is comprised of 1.5 grams worth of copper, nickel, and steel; and the melt value of these metals is worth a hell of a lot more than 0.015 cents.
In fact Russian coin dealers have estimated that the metal value of this coin is worth more than THIRTY FIVE TIMES its face value.
That’s quite a return on investment.
So theoretically $1,000 worth of these coins could be worth more than $35,000 in profit because of the metal value.
Now, I’m not suggesting you book a flight to Russia to scoop up and melt down all the coins you can find.
But it’s worth pointing out that these sorts of anomalies don’t come around too often. And when they do, it’s important to pay attention.
Jim Rogers is one of many legendary investors who has been buying in Russia. Templeton’s Mark Mobius has called Russia the “bargain of the century.”
He may be right. Russia is incredibly cheap.
That’s not to say it can’t get cheaper. Or that it can’t stay cheap for a while.
There has to be a catalyst in order for all the pent-up value to be realized.
But that seems to be happening now. Slowly. Russia is mending fences with Europe. Oil prices have climbed 40% from their lows. Capital is returning. It’s getting better.
18th century British banking mogul Baron Rothschild is often quoted as saying “Buy when there’s blood in the streets [even when that blood is your own].”
That may be too hardcore for most investors.
I prefer to buy when assets are still ultra-cheap, but there are obvious signs that things have turned around.
That time seems to be now.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - booshala - 07-15-2016
Damn dude, haters gonna hate: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36804209
RIP Gold man of Pimpri.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 07-15-2016
Quote: (07-15-2016 05:00 PM)booshala Wrote:
Damn dude, haters gonna hate: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36804209
RIP Gold man of Pimpri.
There is an obvious life lesson there. Stay low key. Fly under the radar.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Bluto - 07-15-2016
As an insurance policy for general chaos, I have some physical silver. I don't officially have any gold but that is on the list.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - rudebwoy - 07-15-2016
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Gold is a good buy as well, but some experts say Silver is the better buy.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 07-15-2016
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - tarquin - 07-18-2016
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 07-18-2016
Quote: (07-18-2016 09:56 PM)tarquin Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?
What I was saying is that while a new bull market in precious metals has likely already begun, historically the odds favor a price decline in the neighborhood of 70% or so from the recent highs. Every bull market — especially new ones — often retrace (decline) as much as 70 percent of their first leg up. For example, if the first leg up was $100, you might expect a price retracement of as much as $70. So investors will likely have a second buying opportunity before the bull run resumes. Of course, there are no guarantees -- just probabilities based on historical price action.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - JayJuanGee - 07-19-2016
Quote: (07-18-2016 11:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-18-2016 09:56 PM)tarquin Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?
What I was saying is that while a new bull market in precious metals has likely already begun, historically the odds favor a price decline in the neighborhood of 70% or so from the recent highs. Every bull market — especially new ones — often retrace (decline) as much as 70 percent of their first leg up. For example, if the first leg up was $100, you might expect a price retracement of as much as $70. So investors will likely have a second buying opportunity before the bull run resumes. Of course, there are no guarantees -- just probabilities based on historical price action.
TailGunner, do you have a historical personal practice of attempting to buy back on such retracements, and if so, how do you do it? Do you stagger your bets and buy back maybe at 20% and then 35% and then 50% and then 70%, or do you wait for the 70%. For example, do you decide a percentage to sell near where you believe is the top, maybe 75% of your holdings, or do you just hold?
Personally, these kinds of spikes and declines seem very difficult to call, and you could be left out if you attempt too much timing of what is within the realm of expectations - especially if the price plays out in some kind of way that was not even close to expectations.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 07-19-2016
Quote: (07-19-2016 01:02 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
Quote: (07-18-2016 11:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-18-2016 09:56 PM)tarquin Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:
If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?
What I was saying is that while a new bull market in precious metals has likely already begun, historically the odds favor a price decline in the neighborhood of 70% or so from the recent highs. Every bull market — especially new ones — often retrace (decline) as much as 70 percent of their first leg up. For example, if the first leg up was $100, you might expect a price retracement of as much as $70. So investors will likely have a second buying opportunity before the bull run resumes. Of course, there are no guarantees -- just probabilities based on historical price action.
TailGunner, do you have a historical personal practice of attempting to buy back on such retracements, and if so, how do you do it? Do you stagger your bets and buy back maybe at 20% and then 35% and then 50% and then 70%, or do you wait for the 70%. For example, do you decide a percentage to sell near where you believe is the top, maybe 75% of your holdings, or do you just hold?
Personally, these kinds of spikes and declines seem very difficult to call, and you could be left out if you attempt too much timing of what is within the realm of expectations - especially if the price plays out in some kind of way that was not even close to expectations.
I do it all the time in regard to stocks. If the price retracement does not reach my goal I simply wait for a different undervalued stock to reach my price objective. I am a conservative investor, so I only buy where the possibility of gain far exceeds the risk of loss. Buying undervalued assets during a price retracement in a long-term upward trend-line (or a new bull market) provides that margin of safety.
I agree that such a tactic is more difficult in a new bull market for the reason that you stated. Your tactics depend on your risk tolerance and your level of patience. You can certainly stagger your purchases if you wish as there is no guarantee of a significant price decline.
Unlike stocks, I hold PMs as long-term insurance. IMO, our worldwide financial system is teetering on the edge of an abyss, so (viewing PM purchases from hindsight many years in the future) if you buy PMs anytime this year it will be irrelevant exactly where you entered the market. In other words, if gold goes to $5,000 per ounce, does it really matter if you purchased at $1,100 versus $1,200?
BTW: If you follow cycles, there are those who believe that the Brexit caused a short-term cycle inversion. In other words, the expected cycle inverted to a high where the cycle would have ordinarily reached a low -- which means that we are still waiting for that low (in the cycle).
If you are interested in long-term historical cycles, here is an excellent article:
Quote:Quote:
US history confirms that the pattern is more than coincidental. Begin with a day when crisis was triggered: December 7th, 1941. The attack on Pearl Harbor might not (or at least should not) have been as surprising as many think, but it did mark the onset of a new crisis for a nation already dealing with the Great Depression.
Eighty-five years earlier, Confederate forces fired on Fort Sumter, launching the Civil War and redefining the core institutions surrounding state’s rights and individual rights.
Dial the calendar back another eighty-five years, and we find a group of men in Philadelphia committing lives, fortunes, and sacred honor by signing the Declaration of Independence.
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.c...9_TFTF.pdf
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - JayJuanGee - 07-19-2016
Quote: (07-19-2016 10:20 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-19-2016 01:02 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
Quote: (07-18-2016 11:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-18-2016 09:56 PM)tarquin Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.
Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.
http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/
Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?
What I was saying is that while a new bull market in precious metals has likely already begun, historically the odds favor a price decline in the neighborhood of 70% or so from the recent highs. Every bull market — especially new ones — often retrace (decline) as much as 70 percent of their first leg up. For example, if the first leg up was $100, you might expect a price retracement of as much as $70. So investors will likely have a second buying opportunity before the bull run resumes. Of course, there are no guarantees -- just probabilities based on historical price action.
TailGunner, do you have a historical personal practice of attempting to buy back on such retracements, and if so, how do you do it? Do you stagger your bets and buy back maybe at 20% and then 35% and then 50% and then 70%, or do you wait for the 70%. For example, do you decide a percentage to sell near where you believe is the top, maybe 75% of your holdings, or do you just hold?
Personally, these kinds of spikes and declines seem very difficult to call, and you could be left out if you attempt too much timing of what is within the realm of expectations - especially if the price plays out in some kind of way that was not even close to expectations.
I do it all the time in regard to stocks. If the price retracement does not reach my goal I simply wait for a different undervalued stock to reach my price objective. I am a conservative investor, so I only buy where the possibility of gain far exceeds the risk of loss. Buying undervalued assets during a price retracement in a long-term upward trend-line (or a new bull market) provides that margin of safety.
I agree that such a tactic is more difficult in a new bull market for the reason that you stated. Your tactics depend on your risk tolerance and your level of patience. You can certainly stagger your purchases if you wish as there is no guarantee of a significant price decline.
Unlike stocks, I hold PMs as long-term insurance. IMO, our worldwide financial system is teetering on the edge of an abyss, so (viewing PM purchases from hindsight many years in the future) if you buy PMs anytime this year it will be irrelevant exactly where you entered the market. In other words, if gold goes to $5,000 per ounce, does it really matter if you purchased at $1,100 versus $1,200?
BTW: If you follow cycles, there are those who believe that the Brexit caused a short-term cycle inversion. In other words, the expected cycle inverted to a high where the cycle would have ordinarily reached a low -- which means that we are still waiting for that low (in the cycle).
If you are interested in long-term historical cycles, here is an excellent article:
Quote:Quote:
US history confirms that the pattern is more than coincidental. Begin with a day when crisis was triggered: December 7th, 1941. The attack on Pearl Harbor might not (or at least should not) have been as surprising as many think, but it did mark the onset of a new crisis for a nation already dealing with the Great Depression.
Eighty-five years earlier, Confederate forces fired on Fort Sumter, launching the Civil War and redefining the core institutions surrounding state’s rights and individual rights.
Dial the calendar back another eighty-five years, and we find a group of men in Philadelphia committing lives, fortunes, and sacred honor by signing the Declaration of Independence.
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.c...9_TFTF.pdf
I think that you addressed my question pretty well because I was personally more interested in how you personally attempt to apply the theory that you stated to your own investment practices because application of any theory (even good ones) can be very difficult in the real world situations and especially in markets that are playing off of a variety of factors including some unknowable human behavior or yet unknown world events.
Sometimes, people will judge others because they did not "kill it" in any particular trade, yet even though you and I may take different approaches to how we invest (I am much more of a dollar cost average investor who has difficulties and disinclinations in predicting the future), in essence we likely agree that timing can be very difficult in real world application, but there are ways around that too, like you said in that you can pay attention to a larger variety of asset classes in order to figure out which one has the most potential in the current market.
And, surely asset to asset is going to be different and have different particulars regarding how they perform or how they are expected to perform; however, I do not mind personally making only 6% and to feel relatively secure in my investment rather than to make 20% and to put at risk more capital or to feel uncomfortable with the level of my investment.
So, yeah, guys are going to judge these allocation and risk matters differently, and diversification can help a lot too, so for example, if a guy were to have very comfortable profits in a few different investment areas, the guy may be willing to take some of those profits off the table, and then to be more risky with a portion of those profits (which can add additional diversification to the total investment portfolio, if played in comfortable proportions).
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - SunW - 07-24-2016
I predict that gold will be $8K by 2026 and $20K by 2036.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - SunW - 07-27-2016
In before bull
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - username - 07-31-2016
Quote: (07-15-2016 03:52 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:
In fact Russian coin dealers have estimated that the metal value of this coin is worth more than THIRTY FIVE TIMES its face value.
That’s quite a return on investment.
So theoretically $1,000 worth of these coins could be worth more than $35,000 in profit because of the metal value.
I don't know if that's true but if it is and you buy $28,571.43 of those coins you would have 1 million worth of metal.
1000000/35=28571.428
If the coins are easy to obtain it would be worth a trip to Russia.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 07-31-2016
Quote: (07-31-2016 03:52 PM)username Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 03:52 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:
In fact Russian coin dealers have estimated that the metal value of this coin is worth more than THIRTY FIVE TIMES its face value.
That’s quite a return on investment.
So theoretically $1,000 worth of these coins could be worth more than $35,000 in profit because of the metal value.
I don't know if that's true but if it is and you buy $28,571.43 of those coins you would have 1 million worth of metal.
1000000/35=28571.428
If the coins are easy to obtain it would be worth a trip to Russia.
At 66 Roubles to the USD and 660 Kopeks to the USD, $28,571.43 would equal in the neighborhood of nineteen million Kopek coins.
According to Wikipedia "1 and 5 kopek coins are rarely used (especially the 1 kopek coin) due to their low value and in some cases may not be accepted by stores or individuals." So, it appears that you might need to pay an insider at a multiple banks to obtain the amount of coins that you would need.
In addition, "The material of 1, 2 and 5 ruble coins was switched from copper-nickel-zinc and copper nickel clad to nickel-plated steel in the second quarter of 2009." So, it also sounds as if you might need to perform coin-sorting on a massive scale (unless both versions of the coin are worth the same).
Then there is the issue of whether you could legally melt the coins for scrap in Russia or legally export them for some reason that you could explain. What if the destruction of each coin resulted in a year of prison? You might get nineteen million years!
![[Image: smile.gif]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/smile.gif)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - presidentcarter - 07-31-2016
Quote: (07-31-2016 06:06 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:
Quote: (07-31-2016 03:52 PM)username Wrote:
Quote: (07-15-2016 03:52 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:
In fact Russian coin dealers have estimated that the metal value of this coin is worth more than THIRTY FIVE TIMES its face value.
That’s quite a return on investment.
So theoretically $1,000 worth of these coins could be worth more than $35,000 in profit because of the metal value.
I don't know if that's true but if it is and you buy $28,571.43 of those coins you would have 1 million worth of metal.
1000000/35=28571.428
If the coins are easy to obtain it would be worth a trip to Russia.
At 66 Roubles to the USD and 660 Kopeks to the USD, $28,571.43 would equal in the neighborhood of nineteen million Kopek coins.
According to Wikipedia "1 and 5 kopek coins are rarely used (especially the 1 kopek coin) due to their low value and in some cases may not be accepted by stores or individuals." So, it appears that you might need to pay an insider at a multiple banks to obtain the amount of coins that you would need.
In addition, "The material of 1, 2 and 5 ruble coins was switched from copper-nickel-zinc and copper nickel clad to nickel-plated steel in the second quarter of 2009." So, it also sounds as if you might need to perform coin-sorting on a massive scale (unless both versions of the coin are worth the same).
Then there is the issue of whether you could legally melt the coins for scrap in Russia or legally export them for some reason that you could explain. What if the destruction of each coin resulted in a year of prison? You might get nineteen million years!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble
I saved every kopek coin I got in Russia over a nearly three-year period (they're useless - I just threw them all in a jar). I used cash for 99% of transactions, so I got a lot a coins in general. The 1 and 5 kopek coins are basically non-existent (the 10s and 50s are much more common but usually only received from the cashier, not used to pay - akin to the penny). I got one or two 1 kopek coins and the same for the 5 kopek coin in total. Good luck finding them for this investment.
![[Image: lol.gif]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/new/lol.gif)
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Belantozorius - 08-07-2016
I own Physicl Gold and Silver.
But thinking about it.. Why not buy the Mines that produce it? i'm only going to make a profit out of my limited physical Coins.. but the mines make the profits on the pysical metal daily.
So I bought
AEM.TO Agnico Eagle Mines
SSO.TO Silver Standard ressources
EDR.TO Endeavor silver Corp
SVM.TO Silvercorp Metal
AUN.V Aurcana Corp
The last one has a potential to go 1000% (they were listed at 10$ once.. now they're at 0.6$).
i've made 100% in 1 1/2 year. Still going up...
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - JayJuanGee - 08-08-2016
Quote: (08-07-2016 05:28 PM)Belantozorius Wrote:
I own Physicl Gold and Silver.
But thinking about it.. Why not buy the Mines that produce it? i'm only going to make a profit out of my limited physical Coins.. but the mines make the profits on the pysical metal daily.
So I bought
AEM.TO Agnico Eagle Mines
SSO.TO Silver Standard ressources
EDR.TO Endeavor silver Corp
SVM.TO Silvercorp Metal
AUN.V Aurcana Corp
The last one has a potential to go 1000% (they were listed at 10$ once.. now they're at 0.6$).
i've made 100% in 1 1/2 year. Still going up...
Sounds like you are doing well in your various investments; however, it bears repeating that some guys are going to get into the actual physical metals because they feel a certain sense of security and non-complication in owning the actual metals.
Mines bring another level of complication, which it may be fruitful to buy or to diversify, and the extent to which they may perform better depends on a lot of factors including management and also whether you buy them at such a point that they are undervalued, which is not always easy to determine with out some level of studying the specifics of each mining entity.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Hell_Is_Like_Newark - 08-08-2016
My state charges sales / use tax on bullion purchases. However, my neighboring state (PA) does not (or at least didn't the last time a checked). I am thinking of opening up a safe deposit account somewhere in Eastern PA and an account at the UPS store or a USPS mail box there as well. If you buy large amounts, it could be reported to the IRS, and your state could find out about it and demand back taxes.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Tail Gunner - 08-10-2016
Quote: (08-07-2016 05:28 PM)Belantozorius Wrote:
I own Physicl Gold and Silver.
But thinking about it.. Why not buy the Mines that produce it? i'm only going to make a profit out of my limited physical Coins.. but the mines make the profits on the pysical metal daily.
They are two completely different assets. One acts as insurance and the other acts as an investment for long-term growth or short-term trading. See the discussion between the 11 to 15 minute marks of this podcast.
https://soundcloud.com/big-question-podc...ld-markets
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Deepdiver - 08-17-2016
Interesting newsletter article I just received:
The Fed’s Failure Will Cost You
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Total Wealth Insider
today's editor
When I was a kid growing up with my grandparents, I’d head to Louisiana National Bank with my grandmother every few weeks on a Saturday — always on a Saturday — and I’d stand quietly behind the wooden counter while my granny moved some amount of money into her Christmas Club account.
I just googled it and found out some banks still offer those accounts today. Having grown up with lower-middle-income grandparents who worked as a tire salesman and a purchasing clerk, I fully understand the rationale behind these accounts: forced savings so that you have financial resources at a more important point in the future.
That’s an apt strategy today, though not for reasons anywhere similar to why my granny was saving…
Last week, the World Gold Council reported that investment demand for gold surged to more than 1,000 tons for the first time in history during the first half of 2016. In that, there is a strong message of fear (mixed with some greed) as well as what I consider to be bad news.
First, I’ll dispense with the bad news: Of the historic rise in investment demand for gold, nearly 55% was in the form of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). I’m a huge fan of gold to preserve wealth, but I am not a fan of ETFs as the venue for doing so. All ETFs carry counterparty risk that investors don’t fully understand — or recognize.
Investors don’t realize that with most gold ETFs, they’re not buying and selling gold. They’re buying and selling pieces of paper the ETF provider creates. That paper passes to market makers in New York, and ultimately ends up as a claim on (or a disposition of) physical gold held by a custodian. Sometimes the gold in question isn’t even purchased or sold — it’s leased/returned to a central bank.
All of that works fine and dandy in a market operating normally.
But what happens in a true crisis, when gold prices are soaring for whatever reason, and investors are scrambling to buy and others want to take physical delivery of the gold they own? Who knows how that plays out? But there are clearly potential risks in the system that could see ETFs fail to perform as expected at the worst possible moment.
Now for the news of fear and greed…
Gold Has Just One Job
The fact that demand for gold is soaring says a great deal about investors’ combined frame of mind these days. People are scared. Having grown up in hurricane country, I liken what I sense today to what it’s like as a massive ‘cane bears down on the coast — there’s a quiet panic as people scurry about getting their stores in order before the devastation.
And I fear devastation is in our future.
Central banks have failed in their efforts to save Western economies. Proof of that rests in the fact that despite more than $12 trillion in quantitative easing measures by major central banks in recent years (that’s a sum of money equal to 15% of the global economy), we still have lethargic growth all over the West, including in America, and we have negative interest rates covering roughly a third of the world.
If central bankers had succeeded, we would, by definition, have no need for negative rates or even near-zero rates. Economies would have picked up by now, nearly a decade after the global crisis, and interest rates would be closer to normal.
We’re at the point now where central bankers are doing all they can just to keep the economies on the correct side of the line separating life and death. They’re like doctors using all the technology at their disposal to keep a terminal patient breathing for a few more days, hoping that their latest experimental treatment suddenly spawns a miracle.
Alas, that’s not likely.
There is simply too much debt — too much financial cancer — in the system to save it.
And buyers of gold know this.
They’re not thinking: “Deflation in the system; can’t buy gold. Gotta own the dollar!”
They’re not thinking: “You know, I feel some inflation in my life, I better buy some gold...”
No, they’re thinking: “Oh, crap! Central bankers and the politicians made a hash of it this time. Currency failure somewhere in the West is possible, if not probable. I need gold to protect my standard of living and my wealth when governments step in to reset this debt-addled world we live in.”
That’s gold’s only role today — the preservation of wealth.
So let me go back now to my granny and those Saturday trips to Louisiana National Bank…
A Christmas Club for Gold
I realize not everyone can rush out and grab a bunch of gold all in one swoop. At $1,350 per ounce, it’s not like gold is an impulse buy.
That’s why I tell people who ask that they should have a gold savings account. It’s a lot like that Christmas Club my granny belonged to. Every month, you set aside some portion of your money to buy a little bit of gold, with the idea that it will amount to an ever-larger sum over time and that you will have a resource you can draw on when you really need it in the future.
Hard Assets Alliance offers just such an account, called MetalStream. For as little as $200 a month, you can buy fractional ounces of gold that sit in your account. This is physical gold, not paper gold like an ETF. Once your fractional ounces reach a whole number, your holdings automatically convert into gold bars. And if you choose, you can take delivery of those bars, or you can store them in Hard Assets Alliance’s storage facility in either Salt Lake City or Singapore.
This is one of the best ways I’ve found so far to build the gold portion of your portfolio a little at a time.
If you want to start your own version of a golden Christmas Club, you can contact Hard Assets Alliance at 877-727-7387, or you can open your account for free by clicking here.
Full disclosure: We have a marketing alliance with Hard Assets Alliance, but, as I always tell you, I would not recommend something just because of a marketing agreement if I did not have faith in the product.
Record gold buying is sending a message of fear. Heed that message now, while you can.
Until next time, good trading…
Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Total Wealth Insider
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - Onto - 08-17-2016
^ Two Thumbs up! But I would buy Silver first, then Gold. You can stack more of it and it has the potential to do much, much better as the Silver/Gold ratio keeps shrinking. Buy a little Gold, but much, much more silver. Those RCM 10 oz bars are nice.
Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? - username - 08-18-2016
Fucking eBay no longer lets users purchase bullion with eBay gift cards. They made the change without notice.
It really sucks because I bought my gold and silver exclusively with gift cards on eBay with gift cards I bought at a nice discount.