The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - Printable Version

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - Windom Earle - 04-05-2019

This is a good video on 4 year cycle:

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-06-2019

Here's another indicator called the Puell Multiple that is intended to give measures for BTC price movements relative to mining costs/revenues.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/misc-puell-multiple

If you are interested in these numbers, I would suggest clicking on the above link because that will give you a lot more snapshot details of the different lines at any point in the chart that interests you.

Red line = Miner revenue
Green line = bitcoin price
Yellow line = Puelle Multiple

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-06-2019

Quote: (04-05-2019 09:13 PM)Windom Earle Wrote:  

This is a good video on 4 year cycle:

I agree. It is a good video about 30 minutes long. I believe that he made his analysis in January or so, and he provides a decent historical discussion as well to largely go back to bitcoin's beginning to be offered on markets and to have a market price.

He discussed likely future BTC price performance that is likely to be in the bullish direction and similar to previous cycles in terms of exponential price rises (at least one more from his perspective).. He is suggesting the next UP cycle to take BTC's price into the approximately $150k to $200k arena..

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-06-2019

Quote: (04-03-2019 06:31 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  

Fuck, should have sold at 5300

Looks like you might be getting another chance. Soon.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - redbeard - 04-06-2019

Quote: (04-06-2019 02:03 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Here's another indicator called the Puell Multiple that is intended to give measures for BTC price movements relative to mining costs/revenues.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/misc-puell-multiple

If you are interested in these numbers, I would suggest clicking on the above link because that will give you a lot more snapshot details of the different lines at any point in the chart that interests you.

Red line = Miner revenue
Green line = bitcoin price
Yellow line = Puelle Multiple

Here's a solid article about the Puell Multiple:

https://medium.com/unconfiscatable/the-p...d755cfe358

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - [email protected] - 04-06-2019

Peter Brandt is good but he has a knack for deleting trades that flop out. He also hedges his Twitter bets by carefully wording his tweets. This time he says he "wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes parabolic". I don't think BTC is going past 12k mid 2020 but if his projections come through he'll be the king of TA.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

The below chart (and link) shows lightning network's growth since it began a bit over a year ago. Even though lightning network growth remains decent, it still looks pretty small, relatively speaking.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - MrLemon - 04-07-2019

Everybody is looking at these charts now. So that will distort the time intervals although it probably won't distort the highs and lows (I think).

So it might not be 2023. We might see 100K in 2021 or even 2020.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - semibaron - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 07:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

The below chart (and link) shows lightning network's growth since it began a bit over a year ago. Even though lightning network growth remains decent, it still looks pretty small, relatively speaking.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity

Is there also a chart about the transaction volume going through LN?

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 01:11 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  

Everybody is looking at these charts now. So that will distort the time intervals although it probably won't distort the highs and lows (I think).

So it might not be 2023. We might see 100K in 2021 or even 2020.

Could be, but everyone does not look at the same charts, and there are a lot the regular public that don't even know what the fuck bitcoin is. Actually there may be a lot of folks who think that they know what bitcoin is, but when push comes to shove, they don't know much of anything.. even if they heard the name and even if they dabbled in it a bit.

Part of my point is that information and misinformation is all over the place, and even if some groups are becoming more informed, and there could be some front running of the timelines, but none of that is close to being guaranteed either because you have forces working in the opposite direction too, that might even be betting (with a lot of fiat that they can print) that BTC is not going to play out nearly as bullish as the charts suggest...

Sometimes these BIG players can also cause the market to go way against what the charts are showing.. at least in the short-term, which causes the creation of new charts foretelling a bearish BTC story.

So, yeah, for sure charts do not set anything in stone and even while we might go in the direction of any one or set of bullish charts, new charts will come out, too.

Personally, I take everyone of these charts with a BIG ASS grain of salt, and I have done so for years, even while at the same time I have personal strategies that merely accumulate BTC and HODL BTC to such an extent that I will profit stupendously from any BTC price movement that outperforms the average of my other investments that on average hover in the 5.5% per annum arena for the past 30-ish years and perhaps could be interpreted a bit over 6% with some creative accounting.

Anyhow part of the point remains that bitcoin has historically been a way outperforming asset and is projected to continue in this outperforming price direction, even if each of us still might want to exercise a certain amount of restraint and prudence in the way that we invest into bitcoin - because the longer term seems to be inclined towards up and that in 5-10 years, as long as we are attempting to accumulate BTC rather than playing around with greed and timing of ups and downs, with a prudent and restrained BTC strategy, in the longer term, we are likely to continue to decently outperform our traditional investments... by putting a decent portion in BTC and hopefully not overdoing it in such a way that amounts to gambling, inability to ride out short-term down waves and does not prepare us for possible additional short-term downwards price movements or unexpected momentum that goes against our longer term expectations.. that could also happen.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - Swordfish1010 - 04-07-2019

I don't really trust charts unless the guy making them has a good track record. I also don't believe anyone that says "it may go up, but it may also go down." Basically they don't say anything.

At this point I am focusing more on learning more about economics, game theory, traditional financial markets, etc. than randoms proclaiming to be experts but who have 1-2 years experience at best and none in CS or Econ.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 01:47 PM)semibaron Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 07:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

The below chart (and link) shows lightning network's growth since it began a bit over a year ago. Even though lightning network growth remains decent, it still looks pretty small, relatively speaking.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity

Is there also a chart about the transaction volume going through LN?

I post threads, charts and information as I come across them, and so far, I cannot recall seeing any charts or information that compiles all of the transactions being processed on lightning network.

I do believe that overall the amount transacted is likely NOT a whole hell of a lot because the size of each channel and the maxim amount of transactions is in the less than $200 arena.. even if trying to push upward limits.

I have seen the most metrics at this website., which you have likely already seen this site.

In considering a response to this post, I did look at Jameson Lopp's bitcoin resources page, and I did notice that there is a lightning developers tweet thread that is listed there and seems to be currently active with lightning developers, so it may be worthwhile to ask the question there.

There are a number of lightning visuals at this site, too, which will actively load when you refresh to give you a current update, but so far, it does not seem to show transaction volume changes.

If any guy has some better resources or comes across such information or explanation for why we might not know that information, then that would be an interesting topic.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 02:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

I don't really trust charts unless the guy making them has a good track record.

Perhaps. I can see where you are coming from. I likely overshare various ideas in this thread in terms of providing various charts, but I do also filter a bit in terms of weeding out charts that seem to be fairly random. In any event, seems like you and I might be coming from a bit of a different perspective in how we would like to involve ourselves with bitcoin... and no problem with that.

Quote: (04-07-2019 02:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

I also don't believe anyone that says "it may go up, but it may also go down." Basically they don't say anything.

That is what I tend to say, and I have made a lot of money with such an approach that does not attempt to commit too much to short term predictions and to attempt to play the longer game, like I have already described in my earlier post.

Actually, I understand that there could be ways to outsmart the market and to make more money by attempting to predict the direction, but I neither want to stress myself out with that nor to conclude that I am going to be able to outsmart the market - especially short term plays..

So, yeah, there are a lot of ways to approach how to involve yourself in this space and how much you want to attempt to make short term plays with a belief that you can come out better with that approach.

Quote: (04-07-2019 02:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

At this point I am focusing more on learning more about economics, game theory, traditional financial markets, etc.

Of course, bitcoin touches on all kinds of angles, and even when you know a lot, there is a lot more to learn. Of course, some guys are going to have strengths in some areas and weaknesses in other areas.

Quote: (04-07-2019 02:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

than randoms proclaiming to be experts but who have 1-2 years experience at best and none in CS or Econ.

There seems to be a bit of a learning curve in the bitcoin space, and sometimes newbies in the space can come in with very interesting perspectives that add value, and that is NOT likely to change. There are also a lot of dumb asses out there.. from my humble bumble perspective. I am not going to write anyone off because they happen to be a newbie or that they are thinking about the matter from a perspective that differs from mine in terms of what I believe to be core skills... although over the years, like you, I have tweaked some of my filtering skills, and sometimes I am NOT exactly sure why I am filtering out certain perspectives that seem to be relying on unreliable information or techniques or just seem to be framing badly... or listening to too much spinning of mainstream media - which sometimes even what mainstream is saying can help to inform changes in public sentiment.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-06-2019 11:31 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (04-03-2019 06:31 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  

Fuck, should have sold at 5300

Looks like you might be getting another chance. Soon.

$5,345 and higher, here we come... seems pretty likely at this point.

How far she will go is another story.

I am not sure about making it to the $6,200 to $6,500 area without some kind of a back and forth battle.. maybe in the sub $5,800 area? Perhaps?

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - bgbusiness - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 05:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

$5,345 and higher, here we come... seems pretty likely at this point.

How far she will go is another story.

I am not sure about making it to the $6,200 to $6,500 area without some kind of a back and forth battle.. maybe in the sub $5,800 area? Perhaps?

Yes, I am 80% sure that we will probably see a correction within next 6months or so before the the winter/Q4 of 2019.

However, it won't go any lower than the recent low of $3200~$3500 or so and will bounce back up.

Daily prices don't really matter to me, but I am happy to see a 20%+ return on my recent investments in 2019. Not complaining at all. Lol.

I am just going to grind it out and try to maximize my income so I can pour and allocate more funds into crypto as soon as it dips HARD.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - Graft - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:17 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 05:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

$5,345 and higher, here we come... seems pretty likely at this point.

How far she will go is another story.

I am not sure about making it to the $6,200 to $6,500 area without some kind of a back and forth battle.. maybe in the sub $5,800 area? Perhaps?

Yes, I am 80% sure that we will probably see a correction within next 6months or so before the the winter/Q4 of 2019.

However, it won't go any lower than the recent low of $3200~$3500 or so and will bounce back up.

Daily prices don't really matter to me, but I am happy to see a 20%+ return on my recent investments in 2019. Not complaining at all. Lol.

I am just going to grind it out and try to maximize my income so I can pour and allocate more funds into crypto as soon as it dips HARD.

What makes you so sure about a correction?

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - bgbusiness - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:36 PM)Graft Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:17 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 05:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

$5,345 and higher, here we come... seems pretty likely at this point.

How far she will go is another story.

I am not sure about making it to the $6,200 to $6,500 area without some kind of a back and forth battle.. maybe in the sub $5,800 area? Perhaps?

Yes, I am 80% sure that we will probably see a correction within next 6months or so before the the winter/Q4 of 2019.

However, it won't go any lower than the recent low of $3200~$3500 or so and will bounce back up.

Daily prices don't really matter to me, but I am happy to see a 20%+ return on my recent investments in 2019. Not complaining at all. Lol.

I am just going to grind it out and try to maximize my income so I can pour and allocate more funds into crypto as soon as it dips HARD.

What makes you so sure about a correction?

As I stated, I am not 100% sure. I am about 80% sure. Anything is possible in these markets, but there wasn't a double-dip that is confirming the recent bottom.

There were double-bottoms before the bull-run in 2017 and other times too. That's normal in typical markets. I do see the possibility of just being stable in 5k~6k range or even 7k range and steadily increasing throughout the next several months, but that kind of gains are unusual compared to other cycles in the past.

I just don't see bitcoin going 10k anytime soon and don't believe that it will hover around the recent prices for several months, I think we don't have enough support and will crash down to $4k or a little bit below, but climb back up to $6k and then we will REALLY start to go up.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:17 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 05:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

$5,345 and higher, here we come... seems pretty likely at this point.

How far she will go is another story.

I am not sure about making it to the $6,200 to $6,500 area without some kind of a back and forth battle.. maybe in the sub $5,800 area? Perhaps?

Yes, I am 80% sure that we will probably see a correction within next 6months or so before the the winter/Q4 of 2019.

However, it won't go any lower than the recent low of $3200~$3500 or so and will bounce back up.

Daily prices don't really matter to me, but I am happy to see a 20%+ return on my recent investments in 2019. Not complaining at all. Lol.

I am just going to grind it out and try to maximize my income so I can pour and allocate more funds into crypto as soon as it dips HARD.

You puzzle me a little bit with your 6 month time frame. Bitcoin could go through 3 or more 30% corrections within a 6 month time frame, so your expectations might be a little too conservative in terms of what is most likely to occur, for example in the next 6 months.

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:36 PM)Graft Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 09:17 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

[edited out]

What makes you so sure about a correction?

I don't really have a problem with bgbusiness's confidence level that a large (30% plus correction will occur in the next 6 months), but like I already stated, I find it a bit problematic that he is suggesting a 6 month time frame in the first place. In my experience looking at bitcoin (and it's price), once it starts to move significantly, then there can be a decently sized battle over whether the price is going up or dow, which will cause it to break in either direction, and usually it does not take 6 months to play out.. unless it breaks up and then breaks back down and then takes 6 months from there to come back up. Anyhow there are quite a few scenarios that can play out and 30% plus corrections are no strangers to bitcoin, once the price gets moving around. I am pretty sure that there were at least 3 30% corrections in 2017 (in March, July and September).. and there were two in 2015 (in July and November) and at least one in august 2016, too.

They can be quite stressful when they are happening and certainly cause a loss of confidence in HODLing your BTC stash.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - bgbusiness - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 10:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

You puzzle me a little bit with your 6 month time frame. Bitcoin could go through 3 or more 30% corrections within a 6 month time frame, so your expectations might be a little too conservative in terms of what is most likely to occur, for example in the next 6 months.

Yes, I agree. That's what I meant to say, 6 month is a long-period of time.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-07-2019

Quote: (04-07-2019 10:21 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

Quote: (04-07-2019 10:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

You puzzle me a little bit with your 6 month time frame. Bitcoin could go through 3 or more 30% corrections within a 6 month time frame, so your expectations might be a little too conservative in terms of what is most likely to occur, for example in the next 6 months.

Yes, I agree. That's what I meant to say, 6 month is a long-period of time.

Ok.. fair enough. Each of us is going to frame bitcoin price dynamic matters differently anyhow, and as long as we are not too rigid in our thinking or the way that we prepare, then we can recognize and accept when BTC price matters might end up playing out differently than expected and make adjustments if needed and as we go.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-08-2019

Below is a tweet thread that shows a nice BTC price projection that includes the concept that bitcoin's wild volatility is not likely to go away any time soon. Whether the projections are anywhere in the ballpark of what takes place or not, they represent an interesting possible upcoming BTC price path.

(by the way, the chart seems to have been tweeted by JimAllmendinger rather than ArminVanBitcoin even though it is in Armin's tweet thread)

https://twitter.com/ArminVanBitcoin/stat...2418204674

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-10-2019

Here's a nice article suggesting that institutional demand for bitcoin is UP, recently.


https://bitcoinist.com/institutional-bit...ve-months/

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - bgbusiness - 04-11-2019

https://www.ft.com/content/0aac6c9a-5b88...1f5ada9d40

It's over. Coinbase, which is the most popular trading app platform at the moment has a debit card in UK. Now you can swipe through your wallets instantly. It's just a matter of time that coinbase expands this system through other countries like USA, Canada, all over Asia.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - [email protected] - 04-11-2019

Quote: (04-11-2019 01:32 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

https://www.ft.com/content/0aac6c9a-5b88...1f5ada9d40

It's over. Coinbase, which is the most popular trading app platform at the moment has a debit card in UK. Now you can swipe through your wallets instantly. It's just a matter of time that coinbase expands this system through other countries like USA, Canada, all over Asia.

Maybe.

Problem is that everytime you pay for something with that card I assume you are disposing BTC for fiat which is a taxable event. This will probably hinder people from using it.

The government has a double standard for currency when it comes to crypto. If I convert my BTC for a car that's a taxable event but when I use fiat there is no taxable event. By the government's logic everyone should be reporting capital losses with their fiat because of their continued losses in purchasing power but that doesn't happen.

If everyone just spams this without thinking and most of them ignore paying their taxes maybe in a few years it's possible they change the laws but....I doubt it

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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread - JayJuanGee - 04-11-2019

Quote: (04-11-2019 01:32 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

https://www.ft.com/content/0aac6c9a-5b88...1f5ada9d40

It's over. Coinbase, which is the most popular trading app platform at the moment has a debit card in UK. Now you can swipe through your wallets instantly. It's just a matter of time that coinbase expands this system through other countries like USA, Canada, all over Asia.

I don't understand how a payments card would be any kind of game changer in bitcoin, especially something that merely duplicates other kinds of fiat payment systems.

In other words, westernized people already have a lot of access to various payment systems, but are you suggesting that a system like this is going to expand access to other people who do not have similar payment systems access? Didn't coinbase and even other companies already experiment with various kinds of bitcoin payment cards, and they haven't really taken off.

I don't understand how people would gravitate towards bitcoin because of any kind of ease of payments, and especially something that is channeled through a third party of questionable integrity, such as coinbase.

Furthermore (like burneremail mentioned), there remains a bit of a us of bitcoin for payments disincentive in the united states, and maybe similar problems in other countries. Few people want to start to use bitcoin or other crypto for payments when each transaction seems to cause accounting nightmares based on taxable event ambiguity.

Show me some ease of us development that goes through lightning and maintains decent empowerment of individuals, then that would be a game changer. There are no third party barriers to entry in lightning network (beyond technical complication issues) that exist when coinbase type folks serve as approval and disapproval sentinels.. and you cannot even trust with whom they are sharing your information.

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