UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Printable Version
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UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Deepdiver - 06-17-2016
Interesting newsletter update Trading Strategy on how to profit from BREXIT...
For what it's worth I voted LEAVE regarding various Brexit polls because I am convinced the Marxist Feminist Obamunist SJW open borders pro-LGBTQ agenda EU unelected technocrats and their Globalist masters are trying to cram same unelected edict driven plan down the USA's throat with various New World Order TTP and TTIP and UN trade and arms controls agreements and strip the USA of any constitutional rights and sovereignty we have left.
So in my calculus, a Brexit LEAVE vote strikes an Anglosphere blow for global sovereignty and in the long run UK likely to become a larger version of Switzerland if they can keep the SJW Marxist Feminists tendencies contained.
That said Jeff Opdyke (Editor of One of the Sovereign Society Newsletters) does not agree with me and has a short term trading profit strategy that never the less has merit:
Guard Against the Brexit Crisis Now
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Total Wealth Insider (Sovereign Society Newsletters)
Back in May of 1916, the British participated in what is arguably one of the most self-serving, globally damaging geopolitical jiggerings of the last century when British diplomat Mark Sykes partnered with his French counterpart, François Georges-Picot, to partition the Middle Eastern remnants of the Ottoman Empire along lines that arrogantly disregarded cultural, ethnic and religious sensibilities to, instead, serve the desires of Britain. The result helped give rise to the terror-plagued world we have today.
Next week, the Brits have a chance to screw the world once again.
On Thursday, Brits will vote to stay in or to exit the European Union — the so-called Brexit decision.
Stay (the smart decision) and life goes on as usual.
Exit (a catastrophic decision) and British voters will wreak havoc on global markets because, despite the self-absorbed logic of the “Leave” camp, the impacts of the vote aren’t neatly contained in Britain.
For that reason, I am recommending a short-term insurance trade to place now as a way to protect your portfolio against potential British disaster.
Britain exiting the EU would raise questions about the stability of the EU, which would raise questions about the stability of the euro. Those fears would express themselves as a panicked stampede into the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, would have two direct and negative consequences:
The U.S. economy would slow even more than it already has because our exporters would suffer from an even stronger dollar that quashes overseas sales and allows foreign goods to compete more effectively against U.S.-made products here at home;
The Chinese yuan would strengthen, since it’s still strongly tied to the greenback. A stronger yuan would make Chinese-made goods less competitive globally, so the Chinese economy would slow, which would slam the commodity markets, hurting commodity currencies relative to the dollar, thereby strengthening the dollar even more and pinching the U.S. economy even more.
So this Brexit vote is decidedly not a decision contained to the British Isles. It reverberates around the world.
And if Leave carries the day, stocks around the world will tank.
U.S. markets will likely fall by 7% to 10%. European markets will fall more, particularly the U.K.
To protect yourself, you want to own a few put options on the S&P 500.
Here’s the Strategy
The S&P 500 is currently trading around 2080, give or take. A 7% decline would take that index down to about 1935.
I would “buy to open” SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) put options at the 2060 strike (SPY160715P00206000), giving up the first 1% of a market sell-off, knowing you’ll profit from the rest of any decline that happens. Those options for July expiration cost about $3.25, or $325 per contract, at the moment.
If I’m right and the S&P sells down to 1935 — a 145-point decline — the value of the S&P puts will rise to a minimum of $1,250 per contract (the 125-point difference between the option’s 2060 strike price and the value of the S&P at 1935).
Knowing each contract would be worth $1,250, and that the profit per contract is $925, tells us how many contracts we need for portfolio insurance.
Assume a $100,000 portfolio with $60,000 in stocks. A 7% decline equates to a $4,200 loss. Since each winning contract carries a potential profit of $925, the portfolio needs 4.54 contracts to ensure complete coverage. Options only trade in whole numbers, however, so we’ll round up to five contracts at a total cost of $1,625.
At 1935, those five contracts will be worth, at a minimum, $6,250 (5 x 1250, the intrinsic value between 2060 and 1935), enough to cover the $4,200 loss in market value in the portfolio, as well as the cost of the five options.
In reality, the contracts will be worth more because they expire in July and will have three weeks’ worth of time value remaining.
That time value is important to this strategy for one specific reason: residual value, just in case the Brits show a bit of selfless wisdom and vote to remain part of the EU.
Crucial Insurance in Troubled Times
If Brexit fails, stock markets will rally rather than fall.
As a result, these options will decline in value. But they won’t go to zero because of the three weeks still remaining. In this case, you would sell to close the contracts on June 24 to exit the position, recouping some of your original cost.
What you have effectively done with this strategy is buy short-term insurance against the troubles a Brexit success will unleash, yet assured yourself of reclaiming some of your premium payment if Brexit fails.
I don’t usually recommend trading around geopolitical events, because most of them are fleeting and ultimately meaningless. Brexit is the rare exception. Depending on what the Brits decide, they could once again roil the world.
Until next time, good trading…
Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Total Wealth Insider
P.S. Brexit is just part of the problems plaguing the U.S. James Dale Davidson has spotted cracks in the foundation of our economy that are pointing to market collapse.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Glaucon - 06-17-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 02:05 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:
Stay (the smart decision) and life goes on as usual.
Exit (a catastrophic decision) and British voters will wreak havoc on global markets because, despite the self-absorbed logic of the “Leave” camp, the impacts of the vote aren’t neatly contained in Britain.
For that reason, I am recommending a short-term insurance trade to place now as a way to protect your portfolio against potential British disaster.
![[Image: wtf.jpg]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/wtf.jpg)
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Phil619sd - 06-17-2016
It seems the false flag backfired big-time. People are waking up!
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Samseau - 06-17-2016
What do the British players on this board have to say about this? What's going on the ground there? How are people reacting to the death?
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Going strong - 06-17-2016
Everybody says that the Euro will take a hit if the Brexit is voted by the people... But somehow I'm not sure about it, I don't think the euro would suddenly lose 10% overnight... Being already so low, especially against the USD, how could the euro sink further?? Actually, removing the powerful but unruly and say, troublesome UK from Europe might be a good thing for the euro currency?
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Valentine - 06-17-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 02:55 PM)Samseau Wrote:
What do the British players on this board have to say about this? What's going on the ground there? How are people reacting to the death?
People I've spoke to mostly hadn't heard about the MP's death. They've been too busy watching the Euro cup.
They've also been for the majority voting Remain. Though when rectified from their simple misconceptions some do switch to Leave or choose to abstain from voting.
The survey answers that any one Brit gets though isn't going to be very representative of actual voting behaviour nor the whole population, so I'm counting on bigger polls for a more accurate prediction.
As of this moment it's 48% Leave, 43% Remain https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Diogenes - 06-17-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 03:21 PM)Going strong Wrote:
Everybody says that the Euro will take a hit if the Brexit is voted by the people... But somehow I'm not sure about it, I don't think the euro would suddenly lose 10% overnight... Being already so low, especially against the USD, how could the euro sink further?? Actually, removing the powerful but unruly and say, troublesome UK from Europe might be a good thing for the euro currency?
Two things:
1. The UK is a net contributor to the EU budget. If we left there would be less countries putting money in the pot and the same number taking money out, so the EU moves even further into the red.
2. If the UK left it might encourage other countries to do the same. Best case scenario is the whole thing unravels like a cheap woolly jumper.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - rotekz - 06-17-2016
The BBC buried this news story pretty deep on their website today. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-36559092 Wonder why?
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Lizard King - 06-17-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 02:55 PM)Samseau Wrote:
What do the British players on this board have to say about this? What's going on the ground there? How are people reacting to the death?
The media is going crazy with it.
I don't know what social media is saying because I can't be bothered to log in and look, it will be predictable and will probably parrot the mainstream media.
Here are some examples of the mainstream media output:
Islamist London Mayor says the Referendum(democratic choice) is poisonous.
http://news.sky.com/story/1713614/sadiq-...-poisonous
Suspect bought a book online from an American white supremacist group
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jo-...ar-AAhd7zg
Suspects right-wing links probed
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jo-...li=BBoPWjQ
Bereaved husband says 'fight against hate'(I think he(suspect) was mentally ill though)
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jo-...ar-AAh8MwW
All very predictable.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - El Chinito loco - 06-17-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 03:33 PM)Diogenes Wrote:
Quote: (06-17-2016 03:21 PM)Going strong Wrote:
Everybody says that the Euro will take a hit if the Brexit is voted by the people... But somehow I'm not sure about it, I don't think the euro would suddenly lose 10% overnight... Being already so low, especially against the USD, how could the euro sink further?? Actually, removing the powerful but unruly and say, troublesome UK from Europe might be a good thing for the euro currency?
Two things:
1. The UK is a net contributor to the EU budget. If we left there would be less countries putting money in the pot and the same number taking money out, so the EU moves even further into the red.
2. If the UK left it might encourage other countries to do the same. Best case scenario is the whole thing unravels like a cheap woolly jumper.
The E.U. economy is pretty much the U.K., Germany, and France with eastern european nations supplying the cheap labor. If the 3 foundation economies leave the entire E.U. would crumble overnight. The southern European nations would be extremely fucked since they are in severe debt and rely on the other E.U. nations to float their economies.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Vienna - 06-18-2016
FT Poll of polls puts 47% for Leave and 43% for Remain as of June 18th.
I'm not gonna sleep this week. Despite its advisory nature, this hopefully lethal blow to the EU has put me in high energy mode.
Getting champagne ready for Thursday night. The day after the referendum is Midsummer's Eve in Sweden, gonna be one hell of a week.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - spokepoker - 06-18-2016
Well, what if the vote passes? What then? I don't see the EU letting Britain leave, all that support money going away from a single vote? Nah. I'm pretty sure we'll see the PM's death crop up again just after the 'leave' vote wins.
This is just going to be treated like those change.org petitions, "Nice that all of you signed this, we'll take it into consideration. Next?"
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Foolsgo1d - 06-18-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 02:55 PM)Samseau Wrote:
What do the British players on this board have to say about this? What's going on the ground there? How are people reacting to the death?
This isn't the US. We aren't excited about it whatsoever. In fact we want it over with so we can get on with our lives and not have to listen to the snakes in Parliament any more than we have to.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - N°6 - 06-19-2016
Quote: (06-17-2016 02:10 PM)Phil619sd Wrote:
It seems the false flag backfired big-time. People are waking up!
That remains to be seen. The polls before the Scottish referendum and last year's General Election were very inaccurate. I can only hope that because Brexit is the more unPC intention, people are less likely to admit to strangers that they intend to vote to leave. In the last General Election, far more people voted Conservative than they admitted to the poll surveyors during the election campaign.
There is going to be a huge rally on the eve of the EU referendum in Trafalgar Square for Remain/ Jo Cox's 42nd birthday. The global media, international politicians, NGOs, Eurocrats on limitless buffets and huge pensions, banks, celebrities, Third Sector giants such as Oxfam and Save the Children (long suspected to be MI6 fronts) - all the various components of the post-modern, globalist Matrix which was born from the 1960s fusion of Trotsky and global capital - will leverage this to the hilt to ensure Remain grabs victory from the jaws of populist defeat. With Brexit having the potential of being akin to the first chunk of concrete taken out of the Berlin Wall which causes others to start hacking away at the edifice, the élite knows that Brexit must not happen.
For a "Brexit gunman" the assassination could not have been more counter-productive and the target so counter-perfect.
Centre-left pro-EU politicians seem to have a sinister habit of being killed just before anti-EU, nationalist forces promise an electoral breakthrough. This leads to sympathy towards the idealism of victim's politics and fear of anti-EU forces.
1. Anna Lindh: despite the Swedish pro-Euro factions trailing for all of the referendum campaign by a considerable margin, her shooting by a Serbian assassin (who later admitted that he had no idea why he did it) meant that the anti-Euro camp won by an extremely narrow margin. Had the assassin been Swedish and not an immigrant, the pro-Euro faction would have won the referendum and Sweden would now have the Euro.
2. The Golden Dawn was set to win 15% in the last Greek elections and help to make Grexit more likely until the assassination of a leftist politician cut the Golden Dawn's vote in half.
3. It remains to be seen what will happen with Jo Cox's murder. She had impeccable globalist/ international community credentials, was an adviser to Gordon Brown and an activist for Obama's 2008 presidential campaign.
I cannot think of a time when the political stakes have been higher.
The UK remaining in the EU means that 1M Turks will be settling there soon when the former free world is potentially run by two women - Merkel and Clinton.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Leonard D Neubache - 06-19-2016
Something I wonder about is whether these mid-level political goons like Cox are starting to get the sense that they are entirely expendable. They may be stupid but they're not crazy. They too will have their suspicions that Cox was offed by her own masters for a momentary political gain.
I for one hope they lose some sleep at a minimum.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - RaccoonFace - 06-19-2016
![[Image: WW47MiQ.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/WW47MiQ.jpg)
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Diogenes - 06-19-2016
False flag or not? One the one hand, the timing and the selection of the victim couldn't be more fortuitous for the 'in' campaign. A youngish, apparently idealistic, woman with two small children butchered in cold blood by an unhinged xenophobic bigot is bound to evoke a lot of sympathy. On the other hand, while motive and opportunity are easy, means isn't quite as simple. How could they have organised something like this? Either the guy is a true believer willing to spend the rest of his life in prison for the globalist cause, and a good actor to boot, or they somehow managed to program a mentally ill person to do the assassination on cue. But is that really possible? Would have to be some kind of hypnosis?
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Leonard D Neubache - 06-19-2016
Quote: (06-19-2016 04:33 AM)Diogenes Wrote:
False flag or not? One the one hand, the timing and the selection of the victim couldn't be more fortuitous for the 'in' campaign. A youngish, apparently idealistic, woman with two small children butchered in cold blood by an unhinged xenophobic bigot is bound to evoke a lot of sympathy. On the other hand, while motive and opportunity are easy, means isn't quite as simple. How could they have organised something like this? Either the guy is a true believer willing to spend the rest of his life in prison for the globalist cause, and a good actor to boot, or they somehow managed to program a mentally ill person to do the assassination on cue. But is that really possible? Would have to be some kind of hypnosis?
MKULTRA has been out in the open for a long time but I hesitate to suggest that some sort of mind control has been used here.
People with mental disabilities are extremely difficult to control. You can set them in a direction but getting them to reliably carry out the details is much harder.
There are literally thousands of possibilities. We will never know for sure how this went down. The only way you could would be by doing a detailed interview of everyone you knew for certain was present, and that's all but impossible.
In any case you could never put together a convincing case for conspiracy in time to influence the vote.. In fact, conspiracy theorising can actually hurt your cause more than help it. Few people want to throw in with the tin-foil hat crowd.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Diogenes - 06-19-2016
Quote: (06-19-2016 04:42 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:
People with mental disabilities are extremely difficult to control. You can set them in a direction but getting them to reliably carry out the details is much harder.
Yes, that's what I was thinking. How could you be sure the assassin would do what you wanted at the right time?
Quote: (06-19-2016 04:42 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:
There are literally thousands of possibilities. We will never know for sure how this went down. The only way you could would be by doing a detailed interview of everyone you knew for certain was present, and that's all but impossible.
Even that wouldn't rule out the possibility that it was just a deranged individual going off the deep end.
Quote: (06-19-2016 04:42 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:
In any case you could never put together a convincing case for conspiracy in time to influence the vote.. In fact, conspiracy theorising can actually hurt your cause more than help it. Few people want to throw in with the tin-foil hat crowd.
Yes, most people won't accept anything of the sort, either because it's hard to see how it could be done (which I can understand), or because they just don't believe the 'leaders' would do it. To paraphrase the Japanese colonel from Bridge on the River Kwai, they think they are playing a game of cricket rather than being involved in a war.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Diogenes - 06-19-2016
I just heard some arsehole on the radio saying that after the MP's murder it was morally wrong to argue against immigration. What the hell? Where do they get these people from? If you like immigrants so much why don't you leave the country yourself and do everyone a favour.
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - N°6 - 06-19-2016
Let this be a warning.
![[Image: ClVV98hXEAE5hU9.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClVV98hXEAE5hU9.jpg)
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - N°6 - 06-19-2016
It is hard to see the Eurocrats allowing the UK to be the "South Carolina" of the EU that starts a chain of secession.
![[Image: ClVKkBTWIAAS99Y.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClVKkBTWIAAS99Y.jpg)
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - Phoenix - 06-20-2016
Our favourite sack of crap leftist mouthpiece, John Oliver AKA "Mr Current Year", comes out with a blatant anti-Brexit hit piece. Amusing for how impatient he was, attempted to sound mildly impartial towards the beginning before jumping into spouting the usual crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - RexImperator - 06-20-2016
I was thinking about Turkey in the EU. It makes no sense unless...
Are they planning to enlarge the EU to include all of Northern Africa as well?
UK Referendum on EU Membership (Brexit) Thread - newpua - 06-20-2016
Whatever is going to happen...in these months the UK has demonstrated once again what a great country it is. Other so-called "democracies" of continental Europe wouldn't dare to ask their peasants a referendum like this...